Finland 2024 presidential election

[ce]

The presidential election in Finland next year will be a hot one, with Sauli Niinistö ineligible for re-election due to term limits. The spotlight is now on important figures like as Alexander Stubb and Pekka Haavisto, who are emerging as the race's primary competitors. Olli Rehn, Jussi Halla-aho, Mika Aaltola, and Li Andersson are among the other notable prospects. The different backgrounds and political viewpoints of these candidates are expected to influence the election dynamic. The Finnish electorate's choice from a number of possibilities will have a considerable impact on the country's political destiny. The outcome of this election will be determined by how well these candidates' policies and personalities resonate with voters in the context of Finland's changing political scene.

[Helsinkian]

The first round will be on 28 January, with the second round on 11 February.

The president's powers were scaled back significantly in the constitutional reform of 2000, but the president still wields considerable power in foreign and defence policy, and Sauli Niinistö had a central role in Finland's NATO process. EU affairs, however, are not classified as foreign policy; thus we have a situation where the prime minister represents Finland in the European Council, but the president represents Finland in NATO summits.

Confirmed candidates

Pekka Haavisto, independent (Green)

Former foreign minister, this will be Haavisto's third presidential election, having placed second in 2012 and 2018. He has chosen to stand officially as an independent, though the Greens are obviously campaigning for him. This is part of his effort to appear as centrist as possible; he rejected the idea that he's a candidate of the 'red-greens' on the grounds that he is 'not at all red'. Haavisto is married to an Ecuadorian man and would thus be the first gay president.

Alexander Stubb, National Coalition Party

Former prime minister, Stubb left Finnish politics in 2017 and has most recently been a professor in Italy. Stubb is known as a cosmopolitan liberal, fluent in five languages, and an enthusiastic supporter of European integration. It is understood that he accepted the NCP nomination with the proviso that if not elected, he would become Finland's EU commissioner after the next European Parliament election.

Olli Rehn, independent (Centre Party)

Former EU commissioner and current governor of the Bank of Finland. Like Haavisto, Rehn is running nominally as an independent, even though he is backed by the Centre Party. Perhaps he hopes that this allows him to appeal to a larger voter base beyond that of the declining Centre Party.

Mika Aaltola, independent

A foreign policy analyst, Aaltola gained name recognition for his media appearances commenting on the Russian war in Ukraine. He was at one point seen as a possible NCP candidate, but he refused to run for parliament for the party, after which the NCP lost interest in him.

Jussi Halla-aho, Finns Party

Speaker of the Parliament of Finland, Halla-aho is best known for his anti-immigration politics and sometimes controversial writings. Recently he has also become known as a staunch supporter of Ukraine (a Slavic linguist, he speaks Ukrainian and recently addressed the Ukrainian parliament in Ukrainian).

Jutta Urpilainen, Social Democrats

Finland's current EU commissioner and former finance minister, Urpilainen entered the race late and does not seem especially enthusiastic. SDP has had poor results in the last two presidential elections; she probably can't do worse than the party's last candidate who received 3%.

Li Andersson, Left Alliance

Party leader and former minister for education. Though she came around to NATO after the full-blown war in Ukraine started, she is still the most NATO-critical candidate in that she would oppose stationing forces of other NATO countries in Finland etc.

Sari Essayah, Christian Democrats

Party leader, current minister of agriculture and 2012 presidential candidate. Christian Democrats did not have a candidate in the last election when they supported Niinistö. This time they are again running so that voters remember they still exist.

Harry Harkimo, Movement Now

Leader and sole MP of his party; for Harkimo, too, this election seems to be mostly about reminding voters that his party is still around.

A couple of potential independent candidates are still collecting the 20,000 signatures that are required from those not nominated by a parliamentary party. Most notable of those is Paavo Väyrynen who wants to run on an anti-NATO platform and for whom this would be the fifth presidential election. They have until 12 December, but their success seems unlikely at this point.

The Swedish People's Party declined to nominate a candidate, purportedly because they 'did not want to further split the liberal vote'. Others speculate that their party leader did not want a potential challenger within the party outshining her, as she herself was not interested in running.

[Helsinkian]

The most likely second round pairing is Haavisto and Stubb. Haavisto was long a favourite, but Stubb has recently caught up and become the new front-runner.

The most recent poll (Kantar for Helsingin Sanomat):

First round:

Stubb 24
Haavisto 20
Rehn 10
Halla-aho 10
Andersson 7
Urpilainen 7
Aaltola 5
Essayah 2
Harkimo 1

Second round:

Stubb 55 -- Haavisto 42
Stubb 61 -- Rehn 38
Stubb 74 -- Halla-aho 24
Stubb 70 -- Andersson 28
Stubb 67 -- Urpilainen 31
Stubb 72 -- Aaltola 25

Haavisto 42 -- Stubb 55
Haavisto 50 -- Rehn 47
Haavisto 65 -- Halla-aho 33
Haavisto 67 -- Andersson 29
Haavisto 59 -- Urpilainen 38
Haavisto 61 -- Aaltola 37

[Flyersfan232]

The presidential election in Finland next year will be a hot one, with Sauli Niinistö ineligible for re-election due to term limits. The spotlight is now on important figures like as Alexander Stubb and Pekka Haavisto, who are emerging as the race's primary competitors. Olli Rehn, Jussi Halla-aho, Mika Aaltola, and Li Andersson are among the other notable prospects. The different backgrounds and political viewpoints of these candidates are expected to influence the election dynamic. The Finnish electorate's choice from a number of possibilities will have a considerable impact on the country's political destiny. The outcome of this election will be determined by how well these candidates' policies and personalities resonate with voters in the context of Finland's changing political scene.

how much power do the finnish president have any? or just a medal collecter who get to be invited to events of swedish norwegian and danish royalty?

[MaxQue]

The presidential election in Finland next year will be a hot one, with Sauli Niinistö ineligible for re-election due to term limits. The spotlight is now on important figures like as Alexander Stubb and Pekka Haavisto, who are emerging as the race's primary competitors. Olli Rehn, Jussi Halla-aho, Mika Aaltola, and Li Andersson are among the other notable prospects. The different backgrounds and political viewpoints of these candidates are expected to influence the election dynamic. The Finnish electorate's choice from a number of possibilities will have a considerable impact on the country's political destiny. The outcome of this election will be determined by how well these candidates' policies and personalities resonate with voters in the context of Finland's changing political scene.

how much power do the finnish president have any? or just a medal collecter who get to be invited to events of swedish norwegian and danish royalty?

As you would know if you read previous posts, the President has extensive powers over Foreign Affairs.

[Mike88]

Alexander Stubb has made quite a comeback in the last few months. In May, he was polling at just 5%.

[Helsinkian]

The list of candidates has been confirmed as the nine previously mentioned; Väyrynen failed at gathering the signatures. New polls show a close race between Stubb and Haavisto for the top spot on the first round, with Halla-aho a distant third.

[Helsinkian]

Early voting has started. Oddly, we haven't had new polls in January yet. We do, however, have the results of the 'youth shadow election', a mock election conducted in secondary schools:

Stubb 21.52%
Halla-aho 20.84%
Haavisto 13.96%
Andersson 12.19%
Harkimo 9.52%
Urpilainen 5.73%
Rehn 4.94%
Aaltola 3.57%
Essayah 2.34%

[Helsinkian]

Oddly, we haven't had new polls in January yet.

Now we do. Kantar for Maaseudun tulevaisuus:

Stubb 24
Haavisto 21
Halla-aho 15
Rehn 12
Andersson 7
Urpilainen 7
Aaltola 2
Essayah 2
Harkimo 1

[Helsinkian]

A new poll shows Halla-aho closing in on the top two.

Verian for Helsingin Sanomat:

Stubb 22
Haavisto 20
Halla-aho 18
Rehn 12
Andersson 6
Urpilainen 5
Aaltola 3
Essayah 1
Harkimo 1

Second round matchups:

Stubb 55 -- 42 Haavisto
Stubb 69 -- 29 Halla-aho
Stubb 53 -- 44 Rehn
Haavisto 57 -- 41 Halla-aho
Haavisto 46 -- 51 Rehn

[Helsinkian]

Probably the last poll before the election on sunday, Taloustutkimus for YLE (dont-knows excluded):

Stubb 27
Haavisto 23
Halla-aho 18
Rehn 14
Andersson 7
Urpilainen 5
Aaltola 3
Essayah 2
Harkimo 1

Second round:

Stubb 59 -- 41 Haavisto
Stubb 75 -- 25 Halla-aho
Stubb 59 -- 41 Rehn
Haavisto 63 -- 37 Halla-aho
Rehn 72 -- 28 Halla-aho
Rehn 51 -- 49 Haavisto

[Mike88]

Polls close at the top of the hour, in 45 minutes.

44.7% of voters cast an early ballot and those results will be published when polls close.

[Helsinkian]

They actually close at 8 pm local time, which is 6 pm GMT.

Due to the large number of early votes, it's likely that not quite all of them will be counted by that time, but the result of those that have been counted will be released.

YLE's election result page does not seem to be public yet; I'll post it when it becomes available.

[Mike88]

They actually close at 8 pm local time, which is 6 pm GMT.

Due to the large number of early votes, it's likely that not quite all of them will be counted by that time, but the result of those that have been counted will be released.

YLE's election result page does not seem to be public yet; I'll post it when it becomes available.

Ah, right. Sorry for the error. Europe elects posted 19 CET, forgot that means European Central Time and then I mixed up the hours.

[Helsinkian]

The campaign has been a bit odd in the sense that though the president's powers are limited to foreign affairs and defence, along with some appointment powers, everyone has wanted to know the candidates' stances on other things, like the Orpo government's austerity politics, something over which they have no influence. Journalists have been guilty of this as well. They'll say that the voters should know the candidates' stances because the president is a 'value leader', but the result may be that people will overestimate the president's powers.

[Helsinkian]

YLE's election result page does not seem to be public yet; I'll post it when it becomes available.

The results will start to appear here in 45 minutes: https://vaalit.yle.fi/pv2024-k1/tulospalvelu/en/

[Helsinkian]

With 61.1% counted:

Stubb 28.3%
Haavisto 25.8%
Halla-aho 16.1%
Rehn 15.5%
Andersson 5.4%
Urpilainen 5.1%
Aaltola 1.7%
Essayah 1.6%
Harkimo 0.5%

It's clear that Stubb and Haavisto will go to the second round.

[Mike88]

Election day votes are starting to come in:

25.1% Stubb
24.8% Halla-aho
23.2% Haavisto
16.8% Rehn
  3.8% Andersson
  3.1% Urpilainen
  1.4% Essayah
  1.0% Aaltola
  0.7% Harkimo

[Helsinkian]

Halla-aho is now the most popular candidate among election day voters, which is not surprising since Finns Party voters tend to vote more on election day. However, he would need to win election day votes by a massive margin to advance into the second round, and that is not happening.

[Germany1994]

Looks like a disastrous outcome for Centre in its Northern strongholds.

[Germany1994]

A question about Helsinki: It seem Stubb is winning some very central precints. Are these super affluent downtown areas??

[Mike88]

Looks like a disastrous outcome for Centre in its Northern strongholds.

Rehn is still leading, although by very slim margins.

[Germany1994]

Looks like a disastrous outcome for Centre in its Northern strongholds.

Rehn is still leading, although by very slim margins.

But isn´t this the disaster itself?? I heard Northern Finland is Centres strongest region.

[Helsinkian]

A question about Helsinki: It seem Stubb is winning some very central precints. Are these super affluent downtown areas??

Yes, those are the wealthiest precincts, which NCP usually wins. Haavisto still winning some precincts there (parts of Kruununhaka, Punavuori).

Looks like a disastrous outcome for Centre in its Northern strongholds.

Rehn is still leading, although by very slim margins.

But isn´t this the disaster itself?? I heard Northern Finland is Centres strongest region.

It is their strongest region, but already in the last year's parliamentary election they lost it to the Finns Party, so topping the districts of Oulu and Lapland would be seen as a win for them.

[Mike88]

Looks like a disastrous outcome for Centre in its Northern strongholds.

Rehn is still leading, although by very slim margins.

Bit isn´t this the disaster itself?? I heard Northern Finland is Centres strongest region.

Rehn lost his lead in Lapland, Halla-aho now in the lead. Rehn still leads in Oulu.

Well, taking into account the Centre's current situation, leading by a bit or being just slightly behind isn't that bad. In the general elections, it was much worse.