Finland 2024 presidential election

[Helsinkian]

YLE's prognosis:

Stubb 27.3%
Haavisto 25.8%
Halla-aho 18.6%
Rehn 15.2%
Andersson 5.1%
Urpilainen 4.4%
Aaltola 1.5%
Essayah 1.5%
Harkimo 0.5%

The last poll was quite accurate, then, and Stubb and Haavisto going to the second round was always the likeliest scenario.

The Finns Party are probably quite satisfied with the result, which mirrors what they are polling in polls for the parliament. Even if Halla-aho had managed to reach the second round, he would have lost to both Stubb and Haavisto.

Another bad result for SDP in a presidential election; most social democrats again went to Haavisto.

Harkimo was pretty upbeat about his 0.5% in YLE's interview; I guess he was just glad to be included.

[Mike88]

Stubb has taken the lead in election day votes, and Halla-aho fell to 3rd place. I assume that Helsinki votes are now being counted.

[Helsinkian]

Åland has the most votes for the top two candidates combined: Haavisto 50.4% and Stubb  40.8%. One might have expected Stubb to be more popular due to his Swedish-speaking/bilingual background, but Åland was among Haavisto's best regions in the previous elections as well (especially in 2012 when the only municipalities he won on the second round were those in Åland).

In contrast, Swedish-speakers on the mainland have clearly preferred Stubb.

[Mike88]

Voter turnout seems higher than in last year's general election.

[Germany1994]

Åland has the most votes for the top two candidates combined: Haavisto 50.4% and Stubb  40.8%. One might have expected Stubb to be more popular due to his Swedish-speaking/bilingual background, but Åland was among Haavisto's best regions in the previous elections as well (especially in 2012 when the only municipalities he won on the second round were those in Åland).

In contrast, Swedish-speakers on the mainland have clearly preferred Stubb.

Is there a reason why the Swedish communities on the mainland vote differently than Åland??

[Helsinkian]

Åland has the most votes for the top two candidates combined: Haavisto 50.4% and Stubb  40.8%. One might have expected Stubb to be more popular due to his Swedish-speaking/bilingual background, but Åland was among Haavisto's best regions in the previous elections as well (especially in 2012 when the only municipalities he won on the second round were those in Åland).

In contrast, Swedish-speakers on the mainland have clearly preferred Stubb.

Is there a reason why the Swedish communities on the mainland vote differently than Åland??

Åland is autonomous in almost all issues, and they have a different party system, so they don't follow the politics of the rest of Finland very keenly. This is also shown in their lower voting turnout, even though as a wealthy region one would expect it to be among the highest (since otherwise wealthy people tend to turnout more).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

"...And the biggest surprise of the election is the fact that there are no surprises!"
Great quote talking about the elections here.

[Helsinkian]

100% counted:

Stubb 27.2% --> second round
Haavisto 25.8% --> second round
Halla-aho 19%
Rehn 15.3%
Andersson 4.9%
Urpilainen 4.3%
Essayah 1.5%
Aaltola 1.5%
Harkimo 0.5%

[Mike88]

100% counted:

Stubb 27.2% --> second round
Haavisto 25.8% --> second round
Halla-aho 19%
Rehn 15.3%
Andersson 4.9%
Urpilainen 4.3%
Essayah 1.5%
Aaltola 1.5%
Harkimo 0.5%

Plus, turnout at 71.5%. The biggest first round turnout since 2000.

[Flyersfan232]

who endorse who in the second round?

[Ethelberth]

Sari Essayah, Christian Democrats

Party leader, current minister of agriculture and 2012 presidential candidate. Christian Democrats did not have a candidate in the last election when they supported Niinistö. This time they are again running so that voters remember they still exist.


Walking. She is former World champion and European champion in race walking.

[mubar]

who endorse who in the second round?

No endorsements so far. The place 3 to 6 finishers (Halla-aho, Rehn, Andersson, Urpilainen) each explicitly said that they aren't advising their voters in any way and are keeping their own choices private.

For the minor candidates, apparently no public endorsements yet. Essayah indicated that she will publicly tell "later" who she intends to vote for. Aaltola stated that as an independent candidate, he's immediately out of politics, which apparently means no endorsements forthcoming. Harkimo, for all his 0.5% support, just stated that he thinks both candidates are about the same.

If this holds, it will be the first 2-round presidential election I'm aware of, where none of the eliminated candidates gave any endorsement for the second round.

[Germany1994]

Stubb is still favored, right?? When can we expect new polls for the runoff??

[Duke of York]

Stubb is still favored, right?? When can we expect new polls for the runoff??

yes.

[Aboa]

First poll for runoff (Kantar for Helsingin Sanomat)

Stubb    57
Haavisto 43

About third of Rehn supporters consider voting for Haavisto, while among Hallo-aho supporters it's about fifth.

There's also a widget for calculating second round voteshares

[mubar]

New poll (also by Verian - formerly Kantar - for Helsingin Sanomat) has Stubb at 54 vs Haavisto at 46 so a tightening of the race from 14 points to 8 points Stubb advantage in less than a week.

Another poll out today (Tietoykkönen for Uutissuomalainen) has Stubb at 53 vs Haavisto at 47.

Also worth noting that Verian/Kantar got 52-48 for Stubb among those who said that they will surely vote or had already voted in advance. Since those who say they "will probably vote" almost certainly won't, it looks like Haavisto is closing in.

Crosstabs are as expected; Stubb voters are men, older, and from countryside and smaller towns, while Haavisto is on the lead with women, under 45 year-olds, and in greater Helsinki area, as well as other larger cities.

One deciding factor seems to be that one third of Stubb voters say they vote for him at least partly because of Haavisto's homosexuality. That's actually very similar to the share of those who named it as a reason to vote for Niinistö over Haavisto in 2012. So based on that, not much has changed with more conservative Finnish population in 12 years, even though we now have legal same-sex marriage (the law was actually approved in 2014 when Stubb was prime minister).

[Germany1994]

Sorry for being OT but I have a question about Tarja Halonen: I read she was a very popular President even in her first time but in the end she only won reelection with a pretty narrow margin. What was the reason for that?? Was party loyality in the end more important for some voters in 2006??

[Helsinkian]

Taloustutkimus/YLE poll:

Stubb 54
Haavisto 46

Sorry for being OT but I have a question about Tarja Halonen: I read she was a very popular President even in her first time but in the end she only won reelection with a pretty narrow margin. What was the reason for that?? Was party loyality in the end more important for some voters in 2006??

The 2006 election on the second round came to be a left-wing vs. right-wing thing, but what probably saved Halonen was the reluctance of some centre-right women to vote out the first female president. In general that campaign is remembered as pretty divisive by Finnish standards; for one, some Niinistö supporters spread a fake news story which claimed that Halonen had held a speech in the 1970s calling for Finland to join the Soviet Union (no evidence it happened).

[Germany1994]

Le´s have a little prediction game:

Stubb     52,5 %
Haavisto 47,5 %

Winners in some of the biggest cities:

Helsinki  - Haavisto
Espoo     - Stubb
Tampere - Haavisto
Vantaa    - Stuub
Oulu       - Haavisto
Turku      - Haavisto

[Mike88]

Second round today. Polls close in around 3 hours.

1,960,000 voters cast an early ballot, 46% of registered voters.

[mubar]

Sorry for being OT but I have a question about Tarja Halonen: I read she was a very popular President even in her first time but in the end she only won reelection with a pretty narrow margin. What was the reason for that?? Was party loyality in the end more important for some voters in 2006??

You're correct, she was indeed very popular president both during her first term and again during her second term, i.e. after the re-election that she won very narrowly. In both terms she regularly got approval ratings over 85% which was usual for her both in 2004 and 2010. And she was popular also on the street, getting a warm welcome everywhere she went. So why was she re-elected with only 52% then?

Well you need to remember that Halonen won the first term also with 52% against a right-wing (well, center-right but Aho is considered more right-wing than his party), essentially the same result as 6 years later. So while the very high approval ratings clearly helped her to win the second term, party loyalty caused the margin to be narrow. This is somewhat natural considering the role of Finnish president that mostly focuses on foreign politics and has little to do with day-to-day governing and nothing to do with budget matters; so as long as the president doesn't make any major gaffes or otherwise get bad publicity, the approval ratings are expected to be high. But when it comes to the re-election, many voters are still likely to choose their own party's candidate, provided that there's at least somewhat serious campaign taking place.

Of course as Helsinkian described, there were also somewhat unique elements of nastiness in the right-wing campaign tactics before 2006 election, culminating to that weird fake news story of supposed "Mayday speech" by Halonen. One has to wonder if that kind of clearly fake story ultimately hurt or helped either campaign for the second round.

[Helsinkian]

The results will start to appear here top of the hour: https://vaalit.yle.fi/pv2024-k2/tulospalvelu/en/

The early votes are likely to be around two thirds of the total; turnout seems to be lower on the second round.

[mubar]

Vote shares between early votes and election day votes are also going to be interesting, especially considering the big gender gap of early votes: over half of the voting-eligible women voted already before election day, while men's early vote turnout was estimated lower at 42% and since Haavisto had a lead with women in the polls, this could be advantage for him. But hard to say how the election day votes end up being.

[Germany1994]

Vote shares between early votes and election day votes are also going to be interesting, especially considering the big gender gap of early votes: over half of the voting-eligible women voted already before election day, while men's early vote turnout was estimated lower at 42% and since Haavisto had a lead with women in the polls, this could be advantage for him. But hard to say how the election day votes end up being.

I made a small prediction game a bit up the page, you can still make some quick guesses. 

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

54.7 Stubb
45.3 Haavisto

My guess.