Groups/Places whos political importance is overestated in the election community?

[ProgressiveModerate]

1. Cubans, specifically in Miami-Dade. Cuban's aren't even 7% of Florida's population yet people act like they are the main factor which decides FL and has contributed to FL's rightwards shift. I think this stems from the fact Florida is a traditionally very close state and Cuban voters have seen some wild swings. However, a large reason for Dems disappointment in FL in recent cycles has been their failure to make substantial gains basically anywhere else in the state. Florida without Miami-Dade still swung right from 2016-2020 and a ~2.5% shift left outside of Miami from 2016 would've been enough to flip the state even with Miami's shift. Instead of why have Dems collapsed with Cubans, they should be asking why haven't Dems see the same suburban shifts out of greater Orlando and Tampa? What can Dems do to appeal to retirees?

2. RGV in Texas. Simillar situation to Cubans in Florida. Even though RGV Counties are actually decently populated, TX is a pretty large state and most of RGV is very low turnout. In 2020 TX was still able to swing and trend left despite the absolutely crazy swings we saw in South Texas.

3. Reno, Nevada. I always see stuff about how Dem gains in Reno will offset Dem losses in Vegas. Metro Reno is at best 20% the size of Metro Vegas. Also it's leftward shift is really a lot less clear than many on here like to project with Washoe County shifting right in both 2012 and 2016.

4. "The Black Belt", especially in key places like GA. Again, very sparsely populated for the most part. Also, by and large the black belt hasn't shifted much since ~2008, yet by the way some talk about it you'd believe it has had a notable rightwards shift. Analyzing precinct results, blacks in most of this region are some of the most heavily D with many examples of them giving Biden 98 or 99% of the vote in 2020. Similarly, whites are some of the most Conservative. This region almost purely comes down to turnout and population shifts, and not-flippers except in some very local races.

5. "WOW"/Milwaukee suburbs. I think people reguarly overstate how populated these Counties actually are and also just how suburban they actually are. Washington is an exurban/rural County that hasn't really shifted in either direction and a lot of Waukesha and Ozaukee is pretty exurban. A lot of the Milwaukee suburbs that have been shifting left are within Milwaukee County itself.

6. This is a bit less relevant today, but Loudon County VA. Relative to Fairfax it's not very populated, and because of the extremely wealthy communities, Loudon is not necessarily going to be representative of the rest of NOVA.

[It’s so Joever]

I think you can add NEPA to this list.

[Brittain33]

The Lumbee. They’re like 1% of the population of NC and no longer determinative of congressional elections. I think they get attention because NC is close to competitive and they are concentrated in and dominate one county and Republicans are understandably excited about any community of color swinging their way (see RGV). Also because Miles.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Minnesota's Iron Range. It's still a D-voting region because of Duluth and the ancestrally D working class areas are like the size of one and a half State House districts now. Not very decisive. Exurban growth and swings in the other rural areas had much more to do with the flipping of the 8th district. Look at how Pine County flipped in 2012.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think you can add NEPA to this list.

I think a lot of this had to do with all the talk about Scranton Joe in the 2020 election cycle; NEPA kinda became the election community's prime example of WWC Obama-Trump communities. In 2024, it seems like there is far less discussion, though prolly still a bit more than NEPA warrants.

Also I think Erie the County is overrated; the only reason it's gotten so much discussion is because of how much it's flipped back and forth in recent cycles. However, the difference between Trump winning Erie by 1 and Biden winning Erie by 1 is negligible in terms of statewide picture. In the most recent 2023 PA Supreme Court election we saw Erie go for the R even as the Dem was winning comfortably statewide.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The Mahoning Valley is really not that big of a deal either, it's only one State Senate seat. The Democrats could easily balance out losing it now with gains in Columbus and Cincinnati. Of course that's not taking into account losses elsewhere, the real big hits are in the working class areas around Cleveland like Lorain and rural Ohio in general. But Obama could've still won Ohio losing the Mahoning Valley.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Minnesota's Iron Range. It's still a D-voting region because of Duluth and the ancestrally D working class areas are like the size of one and a half State House districts now. Not very decisive. Exurban growth and swings in the other rural areas had much more to do with the flipping of the 8th district. Look at how Pine County flipped in 2012.

Ye this is another good one.

I'd say rural Obama-Trump MN as a whole is pretty substantial, but people focus too much on the small collection of Northeast Counties that still hold out for Dems in some elections. And it's not even like these Counties are the best representation of the Iron range. St. Louis County has Duluth, Cook County is somewhat touristy (and empty), and Lake and Carlon Counties have very few people and see influence from Duluth and touristy parts of Cook.

The area around St. Cloud and exurban Minneapolis is def underdiscussed; these rurals/exurbs have been quite red for a while and have been a pretty solid base for the MNGOP even as coalitions have dramatically changed in the past 2 decades or so. If the GOP wants to be competitive statewide in MN, this is def an area they'll have to hold up and build on their existing margins.

[ProgressiveModerate]

The Mahoning Valley is really not that big of a deal either, it's only one State Senate seat. The Democrats could easily balance out losing it now with gains in Columbus and Cincinnati. Of course that's not taking into account losses elsewhere, the real big hits are in the working class areas around Cleveland like Lorain and rural Ohio in general. But Obama could've still won Ohio losing the Mahoning Valley.

I remember when I was new to DRA and redistricting, I always expected Youngstown to be far more substantial than it actually was and was suprised combining Mahoning and Warren Counties wasn't even close to a full CD.

I blame several things:

1. The Mahoning Valley used to be more populated back when the Country as a whole was smaller so historically it's been able to build up an oversized reputation. In many ways, the Mahoning Valley was a representation of industrialization and manufacturing during it's prime.

2. Mahoning County went from being a bastion for Ds, often being one if not the most D County in the State to a swing and now R-leaning Country. Basically, it has become a popular symbol in the election community of the re-alignment we've seen over the past decade.

3. This ties into the last point, but the Mahoning and Trumbull Counties have had several shocking results in recent years. Trump flipping Trumbull back in 2016. Trump flipping Mahoning County in 2020. DeWine getting over 65% of the vote in both Counties. Trumbull voting to the left of Mahoning on abortion recently.

4. DRA precincts in the Mahoning Valley have relatively tiny populations making it feel far larger when mapping.

[wnwnwn]

Pennsylvania: Southwestern Penn outside Pittsburgh.
Michigan: Detroit and the Panhandle.
Wisconsin: tHe nOrDiC vote
Arizona: Hispanic outside some cities
Georgia: Forsyth County

[Gass3268]

Have to disagree in part with the OP's #5. Agree that Washington County doesn't really matter, in many ways you can remove this county from this pairing. In many ways its more similar to Dodge, Fond du Lac, and Sheboygan counties. Also Ozaukee County population wise is pretty small and really doesn't have big effect. All that said, Waukesha County's leftward swing has been massively important, on a level equal to what has happened in Dane County and Milwaukee County. Republicans just do not have that massive raw vote getter like they used to.

[kwabbit]

Have to disagree in part with the OP's #5. Agree that Washington County doesn't really matter, in many ways you can remove this county from this pairing. In many ways its more similar to Dodge, Fond du Lac, and Sheboygan counties. Also Ozaukee County population wise is pretty small and really doesn't have big effect. All that said, Waukesha County's leftward swing has been massively important, on a level equal to what has happened in Dane County and Milwaukee County. Republicans just do not have that massive raw vote getter like they used to.

Waukesha is 70% of WOW. The acronym exists mostly because it sounds nice. MKE County suburbs are more important than Ozaukee/Washington and Racine is about as important as those two combined as well.