Will Florida ever go D again?

[Fwillb21]

Not sure what it would take for this to happen, since it's not a place that as many young, college educated people flock to for jobs. While it seems like Jacksonville has been trending D to an extent, the rest of the state is going in the opposite direction. If the current trends keep continuing, it may not happen until the Gen Xers and Millennials get old and start moving there to retire (assuming their political views don't change as they age). The only other reason for Florida to trend D again would be if the parties switched around their ideology a bit.

[Tekken_Guy]

I could see if go D if Hispanic voters start flocking back to the Ds or Republicans lose ground with white voters.

[Person Man]

I could see if go D if Hispanic voters start flocking back to the Ds or Republicans lose ground with white voters.

History shows it will either be one or another. Right now, the meme is that the next successful Democratic coalition will either finally nudge out wins in the exurbs or start bringing back in some of those working class communities. Maybe both.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Not sure what it would take for this to happen, since it's not a place that as many young, college educated people flock to for jobs. While it seems like Jacksonville has been trending D to an extent, the rest of the state is going in the opposite direction. If the current trends keep continuing, it may not happen until the Gen Xers and Millennials get old and start moving there to retire (assuming their political views don't change as they age). The only other reason for Florida to trend D again would be if the parties switched around their ideology a bit.

It will probably trend D in 2024, given Biden's strength with older voters. However, it's unlikely to actually flip because Biden is losing nationally.

I think it will flip in 2026 and 2028. DeSantis will probably have -15 or worse approval ratings by 2026 given the way things are trending, allowing the governorship to flip, and the next D candidate in 2028 will win in a big enough landslide to carry FL (and Hispanics should trend left from 2024 to 2028 if the economy doesn't improve under Trump's term, as from polling they seem to be the demographic that cares more about the economy).

[dw93]

Not anytime soon as I think even Gen X retirees will keep it about as Republican as it is now.

[Devils30]

Again as in 2056? Sure, its so far off anyway that trends are impossible to predict. But if the far left continues its anti-Israel influence on the Dems, South Florida could become red which will turn the state into a red version of California and NY.

[ProgressiveModerate]

*EVER* go D again. Probably at some point.

However in the "near future" (i.e. next 20 years) I think it's possible in either a D landslide, D improving with older voters, and/or a case where State Republicans sort of overshoot rhetorically and take the state for granted as FL Dems become competent. Sort of a reverse VA-2021.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Of course it will go Dem at some point. The more interesting thing is whether it will ever return to its swing state glory. Democrats will be able to brute force their way a win in Florida by winning big nationally, but it may never vote Dem in a close presidential race again.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Of course it will go Dem at some point. The more interesting thing is whether it will ever return to its swing state glory. Democrats will be able to brute force their way a win in Florida by winning big nationally, but it may never vote Dem in a close presidential race again.

A lot of Florida's cultural status as a swing state came as a result of the 2000 election.

Even if 40 years down the road, Florida becomes a true and decisive swing state again, I think it would be hard to get the same level of cultural significance.

One thing I do wonder is how differently Florida would vote today if the delta between the competence of the State Republican and State Democratic Parties wasn't so large. There has clearly been a significant lopsided engagement and turnout edge in Republicans in Florida these past few cycles.

In general it feels like most swing states have more competent and well-funded Dem parties compared to their Republican counterparts. FL is the one big time exception to this rule.

[TML]

It is possible, but one of the first things that needs to happen is for the Florida Democratic Party to get its act together.

One of the main things they need to do is to ramp up their voter registration efforts. Over the past few decades, the share of non-white people in FL has increased substantially, yet it has been the Republican Party who has gained more registered voters in the areas where non-white people are moving into. There are clearly many potentially untapped Democratic voters in both South and Central FL, where many immigrants have recently arrived from the Caribbean, but this requires Democrats to make an effort to actually organize on the ground and get these people to register with their party. They have had success on this front in the past - from 2004 to 2008 they had a net gain of over 300K registered voters, but from 2009 onwards they have allowed Republicans to completely erase and overtake the advantage on that front (Democrats had more registered voters than Republicans in FL before late 2021). The main reason for this, according to a FL-based Democratic strategist, is because in 2009 the party decided to outsource many of its basic functions, including partisan organization and persuasion, to outside groups, which ended up hobbling the party itself. As this strategist said, the FDP didn't lose the demographic battle; they lost the partisan organization and persuasion battles.

[DS0816]

Re: Will Florida ever [carry Democratic] again?

It may not happen for quite some time.

Since 1992, the average number of carried states be United States presidential election winners has been 29 with the range between 25 (a 2020 Joe Biden) and 32 (a 1992 Bill Clinton). Winning Republicans have averaged 30 carried states. Winning Democrats have averaged 28 carried states.

The highest number of Top 10 populous states carried by any winners was eight. This occurred with 1996 Bill Clinton and 2008 Barack Obama.

For a Democrat to carry eight of the Top 10…the two states they will not carry are Ohio and Florida.

[MarkD]

A state that voted for Trump by a margin of less than 4 points is not a rock-ribbed Republican state. Yes, it very likely will flip to D again, and it could happen pretty soon.

[Zedonathin2020]

It'll have to some time, every state has the potential to flip one way or another eventually

[Vice President Christian Man]

I don't believe so in the foreseeable future, although if millennials continue to remain strongly Dem and Florida isn't underwater by then, it has a chance.

[Bush did 311]

Florida's red right now, but it'll become the bluest state in the nation when it goes underwater.

[EastwoodS]

A state that voted for Trump by a margin of less than 4 points is not a rock-ribbed Republican state. Yes, it very likely will flip to D again, and it could happen pretty soon.

The problem is it’s not going from R +20 to R +4, it’s going from R +0, to R+4, to a federal result in 2022 of R+15. There’s a trend here..

[2016]

A state that voted for Trump by a margin of less than 4 points is not a rock-ribbed Republican state. Yes, it very likely will flip to D again, and it could happen pretty soon.

The problem is it’s not going from R +20 to R +4, it’s going from R +0, to R+4, to a federal result in 2022 of R+15. There’s a trend here..

The Florida Democratic Party announced last week that they are cancelling their Presidential Preference Primary. Tell me how that helps Democrats because I don't think it will.

Florida may swing back at some Point in the future but at the moment it's not a Battleground State anymore. We're currently at that Point where Florida Dems actually relying on Republicans staying Home to win Elections. By the time the Final Florida Voter Rolls are cleaned in anticipation of 2024 Republicans in the Sunshine State will have 750,000+ Registration lead, maybe even more than that.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes it can happen in 24 Scott underpolls in FL than Rubio why because he isn't Cuban that's why he can lose to Debbie Powell

2016 never ending talk about red state FL fails to realize how much Scott underpolled in 2018 and last poll was 44/39 in FL

[Schiff for Senate]

Default answer to these questions is always yes. Never say never. And that's certainly historically true for Florida.