When will we have our next "Indiana 2008" moment?

[ottermax]

Why are we skipping Georgia 2020?

Obviously it wasn't as massive of a shift, but Georgia was a solidly red state for a long time and then in 2018 and 2020 it suddenly became blue. Obviously a completely different phenomenon but still I think if you asked someone in 2012 if Georgia would be a critical state for Democrats they would've laughed.

I think there's some potential for Georgia 2020 to be analogous to North Carolina 2008 in that it remains competitive but keeps frustrating Democrats after an apparent breakthrough.  But, I don't see the argument for it being Indiana 2008.

Maine 2016 was also a pretty good analogy except for the fact that Trump didn't quite carry it.

Wildcards here could be Hawaii or Alaska.  They're unique enough that there could be factors in the campaign that make those states have dramatic swings one year and then snap back.  If Puerto Rico ever becomes a state, I could also see it being susceptible to massive swings.

Hawaii is a great pick - it has a pretty unique electorate (large working class Asian and Pacific Islander population) that is fairly removed from national trends and can shift quite a lot.

[Sir Mohamed]

MN going R in 2028 after the 2nd term of Biden and Harris doing poorly in the contest to succeed him. In this case, it's semi-landslide for the GOP. Remember that the state has the longest D-voting pattern other than DC, having voted the same way since after 1972 election.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

MN going R in 2028 after the 2nd term of Biden and Harris doing poorly in the contest to succeed him. In this case, it's semi-landslide for the GOP. Remember that the state has the longest D-voting pattern other than DC, having voted the same way since after 1972 election.

MN has been a reasonable "get" for the Republicans for a few decades now. I don't think Indiana was reasonable for the Democrats in the years before 2008

[wnwnwn]

Indiana vs NPV
1988: 12,43%+R
1992: 11,68%+R
1996: 14,10%+R
2000: 16,15%+R
2004: 18,22%+R
2008: 6,24%+R
2012: 14.06%+R

[Samof94]

Kansas seems like a great candidate for a state that might do this!!!

[Person Man]

2024:
Dems : Kansas or Missouri.
Reps : Illinois or New Mexico.

Missouri would be more Indiana'08 than Kansas because of a lot of the reasons already mentioned. Kansas probably keeps being close afterwards. People are moving off of the farmlands and into the college towns in the Flint Hills and KC is getting notoriety and people are moving there.

[mileslunn]

Alaska for Democrats and New Mexico for GOP are my picks.  Alaska as has a highly transient population so perhaps if some economic boom that leads to many re-locating there, could lead to one off Democrat win and then boom ends and those return home. 

For New Mexico, it would happen by GOP either winning or keeping Democrats to single digits amongst Hispanics but then replacement alienates Hispanics.  Bush got 44% amongst Hispanics in 2004 which is much higher than GOP had gotten in previous elections or elections since.  It was only close in 2000 as whites voted more heavily GOP in New Mexico than they do now.