When will we have our next "Indiana 2008" moment?

[Alben Barkley]

By which I mean a state that has been voting one party for decades breaks narrowly for the other party in a semi-landslide, only to go back to voting for its old party again like nothing ever happened?

Will anything like this ever even happen again?

[Fancyarcher]

Sadly unlikely unless we see some level of polarization tamper down, which isn't impossible, just very hard.

Indiana 2008 was truly a lightning in a bottle storm of a moment.

[Fwillb21]

It almost happened in 2016 with New Hampshire and Minnesota, so those are states where it could certainly happen in a GOP landslide (although 2016 was not that). I could even see the same thing happening in Connecticut, Rhode Island, or even Oregon in such an event.

As for a DEM landslide, Missouri and Montana seem like they could be potential candidates for this phenomenon, in addition to it happening in Indiana again. I could even see it happening in (wait for it) Utah if there was a third party candidate taking votes away from the GOP Nominee.

[Fancyarcher]

It almost happened in 2016 with New Hampshire and Minnesota, so those are states where it could certainly happen in a GOP landslide (although 2016 was not that). I could even see the same thing happening in Connecticut, Rhode Island, or even Oregon in such an event.

As for a DEM landslide, Missouri and Montana seem like they could be potential candidates for this phenomenon, in addition to it happening in Indiana again. I could even see it happening in (wait for it) Utah if there was a third party candidate taking votes away from the GOP Nominee.

New Hampshire and Minnesota are not great examples of this, because Trump actually did worse than Romney in both states by percentage, and neither of them are technically solidly or safe Democratic relative to the popular vote.

For an Indiana 2008 to happen, it has to be a state that votes for one party by like high margin, say more than double digits, and then just swings widely to the other side for one edition, and never again. So far there aren't real great future potentials in that regard.

[Person Man]

It almost happened in 2016 with New Hampshire and Minnesota, so those are states where it could certainly happen in a GOP landslide (although 2016 was not that). I could even see the same thing happening in Connecticut, Rhode Island, or even Oregon in such an event.

As for a DEM landslide, Missouri and Montana seem like they could be potential candidates for this phenomenon, in addition to it happening in Indiana again. I could even see it happening in (wait for it) Utah if there was a third party candidate taking votes away from the GOP Nominee.

I think Kansas as much as Missouri. Longest shot, as in has a 10% chance of happening in our lifetimes, would probably be Nebraska.

[TodayJunior]

I’ll go out on a limb…I think New York is a good candidate for this, and it’s getting a lot of buzz lately too which isn’t too rosy for Dems at the moment, but in 2008 everything possible that could go wrong did for the national gop that year and the Indiana gop as a state party. Obama also invested there too. You could make the same argument in reverse for NY.

For this to happen, the migrant crisis would have to be enough of a political anvil to Biden so that the gop gets 30-35% in NYC -( is that even possible?), and combine that with a Great Recession moment where the entire rust belt swings wildly rightward, which could include upstate NY, and I
think you have a scenario where NY could flip red, oddly in a hypothetical scenario where New Jersey could stay blue such as the IN/MO 2008 dynamic or the NC/GA 2020 dynamic, similar ideological states landing up in different columns.

Then parity returns 4 years later, dynamics of political gravity have largely returned, and you’re back to 15-19% Dem margin

[ProgressiveModerate]

I’ll go out on a limb…I think New York is a good candidate for this, and it’s getting a lot of buzz lately too which isn’t too rosy for Dems at the moment, but in 2008 everything possible that could go wrong did for the national gop that year and the Indiana gop as a state party. Obama also invested there too. You could make the same argument in reverse for NY.

For this to happen, the migrant crisis would have to be enough of a political anvil to Biden so that the gop gets 30-35% in NYC -( is that even possible?), and combine that with a Great Recession moment where the entire rust belt swings wildly rightward, which could include upstate NY, and I
think you have a scenario where NY could flip red, oddly in a hypothetical scenario where New Jersey could stay blue such as the IN/MO 2008 dynamic or the NC/GA 2020 dynamic, similar ideological states landing up in different columns.

Then parity returns 4 years later, dynamics of political gravity have largely returned, and you’re back to 15-19% Dem margin

I think in this scenario, you'd have a combination of really bad NYC turnout and a Republican who has unique appeal to the northeast, along with Dems being toxic for Long Island; this is close to what occurred in 2022 except Hochul was able to make some gains upstate from Cuomo allowing her to hold the state.

I don't think the migrant crisis would be what allows the GOP to get 30% in NYC, but rather people seeing State Dems as out of touch and incompetent as the cost of living continues to rise. As a NYer I def agree NY Dems have not been doing enough to address this issue.

However as soon as Dems have that shock, the state party instantly makes much more of an effort to reach out to and connect with voters to boost turnout in NYC for the long run, swinging the state back to likely/safe D in the long run.

[ProgressiveModerate]

One thing that allowed IN-2008 to happen was the fact campaigning actually mattered. McCain basically bailed on Indiana as Obama invested, and the results showed in the final results with most of the hardest left shifting Counties in the County concentrated inside IN.

Below in the 2004-2008 Pres swing map one can clearly see how Indiana's swing stands out while states with heavy competition from both sides like PA, OH had more modest swings.



Today I don't think state-specific campaigning could have as much of an effect due to polarization and rise of mass national media. Strong swings in one place suggests strong swings that way basically anywhere else in the Country that is demogrpahically similar.

[Alben Barkley]

One thing that allowed IN-2008 to happen was the fact campaigning actually mattered. McCain basically bailed on Indiana as Obama invested, and the results showed in the final results with most of the hardest left shifting Counties in the County concentrated inside IN.

Below in the 2004-2008 Pres swing map one can clearly see how Indiana's swing stands out while states with heavy competition from both sides like PA, OH had more modest swings.



Today I don't think state-specific campaigning could have as much of an effect due to polarization and rise of mass national media. Strong swings in one place suggests strong swings that way basically anywhere else in the Country that is demogrpahically similar.

Yikes at those Eastern Kentucky swings. A lot of those counties went from Kerry landslides to McCain landslides. It can't be completely ignored that Daniel Cameron is a black man when looking at those counties breaking for Beshear, sadly.

[patzer]

I’ll go out on a limb…I think New York is a good candidate for this, and it’s getting a lot of buzz lately too which isn’t too rosy for Dems at the moment, but in 2008 everything possible that could go wrong did for the national gop that year and the Indiana gop as a state party. Obama also invested there too. You could make the same argument in reverse for NY.

For this to happen, the migrant crisis would have to be enough of a political anvil to Biden so that the gop gets 30-35% in NYC -( is that even possible?), and combine that with a Great Recession moment where the entire rust belt swings wildly rightward, which could include upstate NY, and I
think you have a scenario where NY could flip red, oddly in a hypothetical scenario where New Jersey could stay blue such as the IN/MO 2008 dynamic or the NC/GA 2020 dynamic, similar ideological states landing up in different columns.

Then parity returns 4 years later, dynamics of political gravity have largely returned, and you’re back to 15-19% Dem margin

I'm inclined to agree with this. Also- in 2020, Biden won New York by 23%. In 2004, Bush won Indiana by 21%.

[Zedonathin2020]

I could see Kansas being that state in 2032/36, but it is also trending to the left at could go Democratic again in the 2040s in such a scenario, outside of that it could be Montana, Missouri or even Utah

For the Republicans picking off a Democratic state examples are Minnesota, New Jersey, Oregon and either one of New Hampshire or Rhode Island

[Xing]

If Biden wins next year, Minnesota or Maine could go Republican in 2028. If Trump wins, the most likely long-time Republican states to flip in 2028 would be Alaska and Texas, which probably wouldn’t just revert back. It’s harder to see a state like Kansas flipping unless the bottom really falls out for Republicans.

[wnwnwn]

2024 if republicans somehow win Maine
2028 if democrats somwhow in Kansas

[robocop]

Unlikely to happen in 2008 but possibly 2028.
If so then New York or New Jersey for Republicans or for Democrats it could be Kansas or Montana.

[Schiff for Senate]

Kansas is shifting leftward because of trends. When it flips (which will happen eventually), it'll be less of an Indiana 2008 and more of a Virginia or a North Carolina 2008, if anything.

Now Maine for the Republicans, otoh, is believable. Ditto for Minnesota and New Hampshire too.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

NC 2008 moments are more likely where it still ends up being close.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Kansas is shifting leftward because of trends. When it flips (which will happen eventually), it'll be less of an Indiana 2008 and more of a Virginia or a North Carolina 2008, if anything.

Now Maine for the Republicans, otoh, is believable. Ditto for Minnesota and New Hampshire too.

None of those count as Indiana moments or come close really . An Indiana moment for the GOP would be like flipping Oregon , or New Jersey and even then neither of them would still be as impressive as Obama flipping Indiana was .  Indiana was a state that went for Bush by over 20 points in 2004(which is more than Biden won WA!) and then Obama stunningly manage to flip it. So really an MN/ME doenst come close being counted as an Indiana moment .

An Indiana moment has to be the GOP flipping a state like Oregon or New Jersey given the margins Biden won them by .

[Schiff for Senate]

Kansas is shifting leftward because of trends. When it flips (which will happen eventually), it'll be less of an Indiana 2008 and more of a Virginia or a North Carolina 2008, if anything.

Now Maine for the Republicans, otoh, is believable. Ditto for Minnesota and New Hampshire too.

None of those count as Indiana moments or come close really . An Indiana moment for the GOP would be like flipping Oregon , or New Jersey and even then neither of them would still be as impressive as Obama flipping Indiana was .  Indiana was a state that went for Bush by over 20 points in 2004(which is more than Biden won WA!) and then Obama stunningly manage to flip it. So really an MN/ME doenst come close being counted as an Indiana moment .

An Indiana moment has to be the GOP flipping a state like Oregon or New Jersey given the margins Biden won them by .

Actually yeah. Oregon would probably be a good Indiana 2008 if it was a really big R landslide.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Kansas is shifting leftward because of trends. When it flips (which will happen eventually), it'll be less of an Indiana 2008 and more of a Virginia or a North Carolina 2008, if anything.

Now Maine for the Republicans, otoh, is believable. Ditto for Minnesota and New Hampshire too.

None of those count as Indiana moments or come close really . An Indiana moment for the GOP would be like flipping Oregon , or New Jersey and even then neither of them would still be as impressive as Obama flipping Indiana was .  Indiana was a state that went for Bush by over 20 points in 2004(which is more than Biden won WA!) and then Obama stunningly manage to flip it. So really an MN/ME doenst come close being counted as an Indiana moment .

An Indiana moment has to be the GOP flipping a state like Oregon or New Jersey given the margins Biden won them by .

Actually yeah. Oregon would probably be a good Indiana 2008 if it was a really big R landslide.

Also Colorado would probably be the Missouri here and still vote D despite a landslide R year just like Missouri voted R despite the D landslide

[Schiff for Senate]

Kansas is shifting leftward because of trends. When it flips (which will happen eventually), it'll be less of an Indiana 2008 and more of a Virginia or a North Carolina 2008, if anything.

Now Maine for the Republicans, otoh, is believable. Ditto for Minnesota and New Hampshire too.

None of those count as Indiana moments or come close really . An Indiana moment for the GOP would be like flipping Oregon , or New Jersey and even then neither of them would still be as impressive as Obama flipping Indiana was .  Indiana was a state that went for Bush by over 20 points in 2004(which is more than Biden won WA!) and then Obama stunningly manage to flip it. So really an MN/ME doenst come close being counted as an Indiana moment .

An Indiana moment has to be the GOP flipping a state like Oregon or New Jersey given the margins Biden won them by .

Actually yeah. Oregon would probably be a good Indiana 2008 if it was a really big R landslide.

Also Colorado would probably be the Missouri here and still vote D despite a landslide R year just like Missouri voted R despite the D landslide

Agreed. We're probably gonna see CO voting to the left of OR in a cycle or two.

[Ragnaroni]

2024:
Dems : Kansas or Missouri.
Reps : Illinois or New Mexico.

[ottermax]

Why are we skipping Georgia 2020?

Obviously it wasn't as massive of a shift, but Georgia was a solidly red state for a long time and then in 2018 and 2020 it suddenly became blue. Obviously a completely different phenomenon but still I think if you asked someone in 2012 if Georgia would be a critical state for Democrats they would've laughed.

[oldtimer]

Why are we skipping Georgia 2020?

Obviously it wasn't as massive of a shift, but Georgia was a solidly red state for a long time and then in 2018 and 2020 it suddenly became blue. Obviously a completely different phenomenon but still I think if you asked someone in 2012 if Georgia would be a critical state for Democrats they would've laughed.

A state shifting 5 points back and forth like Georgia is expected, a state shifting 20 points back and forth like Indiana 2004-2012 is more rare.

[here2view]

If Beshear somehow became the nominee in 2028 after a horrific second Trump term, I'll toss Kentucky out there. No, I don't think that'll happen but I don't think there's really a good example tbh.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Why are we skipping Georgia 2020?

Obviously it wasn't as massive of a shift, but Georgia was a solidly red state for a long time and then in 2018 and 2020 it suddenly became blue. Obviously a completely different phenomenon but still I think if you asked someone in 2012 if Georgia would be a critical state for Democrats they would've laughed.

I think there's some potential for Georgia 2020 to be analogous to North Carolina 2008 in that it remains competitive but keeps frustrating Democrats after an apparent breakthrough.  But, I don't see the argument for it being Indiana 2008.

Maine 2016 was also a pretty good analogy except for the fact that Trump didn't quite carry it.

Wildcards here could be Hawaii or Alaska.  They're unique enough that there could be factors in the campaign that make those states have dramatic swings one year and then snap back.  If Puerto Rico ever becomes a state, I could also see it being susceptible to massive swings.