Monday, May 14, 2007
For the third time in four weeks, a national Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Democratic Primary Voters shows Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama within two points of each other. This week, it’s Clinton 35% Obama 33%. Former Senator John Edwards is in third place with 14% support. New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson is a distant fourth at 3%.
However, the race may not be as close as those numbers suggest. The Rasmussen Reports sample includes not only Democrats, but also independents who say they are likely to vote in a Democratic Primary. Among Democrats only, Clinton leads by eight percentage points, 39% to 31% (with Edwards at 15%). That’s little changed from a week ago when Clinton led by eleven among Democrats in the survey.
Obama does better when independents are included because he currently holds a two-to-one advantage over Clinton among those potential voters. Both the number and the preferences of independent voters is more volatile than the preferences of core Democratic voters. Some states have open primaries allowing independents to participate, others allow Democrats only. If the current trends were to continue throughout the Primary season, Clinton would handily win the states allowing only Democrats to vote while Obama would be competitive in others.
This puts Clinton in a similar position to John Kerry in 2004 and George W. Bush in 2000. As Kerry swept to the nomination, John Edwards was most competitive in states that allowed independents to participate in their primaries. In Election 2000, Senator John McCain was able to surprise Bush in New Hampshire due to that state’s open Primary and the fact that there was little competition on the Democratic side of the debate. Throughout his challenge, McCain was most competitive in places that allowed independents to participate. However, he was never a serious threat to Bush in states with Republican-only primaries.
New Hampshire, traditionally the first Primary, allows independent voters to participate in either the Republican or the Democratic primary. Most years, like 2004, there is only one competitive race and the independents who participate do so in that party’s primary. This year, however, it is possible that both Republicans and Democrats may have competitive nominating processes heading into New Hampshire. At the moment, independents say they are more likely to participate in the Democratic Primary, but it is impossible to know what the dynamics will be in early 2008. That’s consistent with an overall higher level of enthusiasm about Democrats--a separate survey of all voters found that Democrats currently enjoy an 11-point advantage on the Generic Congressional Ballot.
Rasmussen Reports releases national polling data on the Democratic nomination process every Monday and on the Republican race each Tuesday. The current survey of 789 Likely Democratic Primary Voters was conducted May 7-10, 2007. The margin of sampling error is +/-4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/2008_democratic_presidential_primary
