Have we been in a new Gilded Age electorally since 2000?

[Alben Barkley]

Since 2000, every election except 2008 has been quite close, and even 2008 was closer than any pre-2000 election since 1976.

This resembles the Gilded Age elections between 1876 and 1896, which were mostly decided by insanely small margins in the popular vote and electoral college.

This was broken in 1900, when McKinley won big in a rematch against Bryan and ushered in an era of Republican dominance that would (with the exception of Wilson's presidency) last until FDR, who in turn ushered in an era of Democratic dominance that would mostly hold until Reagan, etc.

I doubt it's sustainable that we'll keep on having insanely close races forever. You'd think EVENTUALLY something's gotta give and one party or the other will win a landslide again. By which I mean at least 370 or so EVs and/or a high single to double digit margin in the NPV. If so, when and how do you see that happening?

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Since 2000, every election except 2008 has been quite close, and even 2008 was closer than any pre-2000 election since 1976.

This resembles the Gilded Age elections between 1876 and 1896, which were mostly decided by insanely small margins in the popular vote and electoral college.

This was broken in 1900, when McKinley won big in a rematch against Bryan and ushered in an era of Republican dominance that would (with the exception of Wilson's presidency) last until FDR, who in turn ushered in an era of Democratic dominance that would mostly hold until Reagan, etc.

I doubt it's sustainable that we'll keep on having insanely close races forever. You'd think EVENTUALLY something's gotta give and one party or the other will win a landslide again. By which I mean at least 370 or so EVs and/or a high single to double digit margin in the NPV. If so, when and how do you see that happening?

I think Trump wins the EC/PV by a larger than expected margin, then whoever the Democratic nominee is in 2028 wins in a landslide.

[DS0816]

Since 2000, every election except 2008 has been quite close, and even 2008 was closer than any pre-2000 election since 1976.

This resembles the Gilded Age elections between 1876 and 1896, which were mostly decided by insanely small margins in the popular vote and electoral college.

This was broken in 1900, when McKinley won big in a rematch against Bryan and ushered in an era of Republican dominance that would (with the exception of Wilson's presidency) last until FDR, who in turn ushered in an era of Democratic dominance that would mostly hold until Reagan, etc.

I doubt it's sustainable that we'll keep on having insanely close races forever. You'd think EVENTUALLY something's gotta give and one party or the other will win a landslide again. By which I mean at least 370 or so EVs and/or a high single to double digit margin in the NPV. If so, when and how do you see that happening?

I have a thread titled “Ranking the States Which Picked the Presidents | 1789–2020".

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=556600.msg9122153#msg9122153


We are in a period since 1992 in which every United States presidential election winner carried states in the percentile rage of 50 to 64.

The numbers of carried states, post-1980s, have been between 25 (a 2020 Joe Biden) and 32 (a 1992 Bill Clinton).

So far, this has been a period of 28 years and 8 election cycles.


This current period has had me harken back to the one between 1876 to 1900. That, too, was a period of a similar range. The lowest percent of carried states was 50. (That was a 1880 James Garfield with 19 of 38 states.) The highest percent of carried states was 62.22. (That was a 1900 William McKinley with 28 of 45 states.)


I don’t think many are sensing we are about to break out of this pattern.

[Vosem]

The post-Reconstruction alignment was basically broken in 1896, not 1900, when McKinley got insane swings towards him in the Eastern states. Even though the PV in 1896 was fairly close Bryan was nowhere close to winning.

I still think the cause of the present string of close elections is the primary system. As long as you allow ordinary people to vote on who the opposing candidate should be, that candidate will always be someone who represents the frustrations of around half the country on some topic. The most recent contested convention was in 1984 (...although 2008 between Clinton and Obama sort of counts, Clinton withdrew rather than fighting at the convention), and since 1988, every election has been decided by single-digits nationally and in the decisive state. (Yes, Dukakis, Dole, McCain, and Romney didn't come that close, but by 1896-1984 standards those were all still fairly close elections!)

I don't think you get another double-digit outcome until the primary system in some way fails. That said if one side has a large number of advantages I think 2008-style backlashes are still totally possible; Obama won the NPV by 7 points and the decisive state, Iowa, by 9 points.

[OSR stands with Israel]

2008 was not closer than 1992 though. Obama won the Tipping point State by 9 Points, while Clinton won the Tipping Point State by 4.5 points.

[Alben Barkley]

2008 was not closer than 1992 though. Obama won the Tipping point State by 9 Points, while Clinton won the Tipping Point State by 4.5 points.

I was talking in terms of Electoral College vote margin.