CA-16 Eshoo to Retire (4/5: Exact Tie for Second Position)

[Oryxslayer]

Has that ever happened before? I don't recall a similar tied result with that amount of votes.

Not for anything above the level of local politics.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Has that ever happened before? I don't recall a similar tied result with that amount of votes.

Not for anything above the level of local politics.

In the Election Day thread someone brought up 2016 Assembly 62 where two write ins tied with 62 votes

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Has that ever happened before? I don't recall a similar tied result with that amount of votes.

Not for anything above the level of local politics.

Australia holds the global record - Nunawading Province in the 1985 Victorian state election returned 54,821 votes for the Liberal and Labor candidates after preferences. The returning officer made a casting vote after a drawing of lots, for the Labor candidate which gave them a 1 seat majority in the upper house. Court of Disputed Returns would void the result due to errors by the returning officer which resulted in 44 votes being excluded from the count. The Liberals would win the by-election, denying Labor control of the upper house.

[Vosem]

Local sources are now reporting that San Mateo has cured its final ballot, for Simitian, and that counting is now fully complete, as follows:

Liccardo (Dem) 38,489
Low (Dem) 30,249
Simitian (Dem) 30,249

Almost certainly there will be a recount requested, but as it stands this would send us to a three-way November general.

Will there actually be a recount requested? My understanding is that whoever requests the recount must pay for it, and neither Low nor Simitian would want to risk not advancing to the next round. Liccardo could request it if he thinks that he has a better chance against one opponent rather than two, but I think there is some chance of a move like this backfiring; voters might interpret asking for a recount when you're in first place as too-clever or spiteful.

I guess a recount could happen, but from my vantage point it seems like it's in everyone's interest to accept this result and go to the three-cornered general.

[Sestak]

Local sources are now reporting that San Mateo has cured its final ballot, for Simitian, and that counting is now fully complete, as follows:

Liccardo (Dem) 38,489
Low (Dem) 30,249
Simitian (Dem) 30,249

Almost certainly there will be a recount requested, but as it stands this would send us to a three-way November general.

Will there actually be a recount requested? My understanding is that whoever requests the recount must pay for it, and neither Low nor Simitian would want to risk not advancing to the next round. Liccardo could request it if he thinks that he has a better chance against one opponent rather than two, but I think there is some chance of a move like this backfiring; voters might interpret asking for a recount when you're in first place as too-clever or spiteful.

I guess a recount could happen, but from my vantage point it seems like it's in everyone's interest to accept this result and go to the three-cornered general.

Yeah, that was my immediate reaction but it does look like it’s substantially less likely, especially as it seems both Simitian and Low would have to spend the majority of their war chests (Low would have to spend basically all of his money) to pay for it.

As you allude to, there are some interesting potential incentives for Liccardo but it’s unclear if he’d actually go for it.

[smoltchanov]

Well, if i understand correctly - Liccardo is a sort of "moderate" by Bay area standards ( i. e. - "normal liberal"), while Simitian, and, especially, Low are closer to "progressive" camp. If so - it's much more advantageous for Liccardo to have both as opponents, let them split left-wing vote, and thus - increase his (Liccardo) chances to win...

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/Jana_Kadah/status/1777854460099952838

[Oryxslayer]

And so we see the obvious outcome. Game theory suggests that someone would pull the trigger,  but also not want to be seen doing it. Liccardo is seemingly the person who expects a better time in a 1 v 1.

[Schiff for Senate]

ok now we're just making up random people

California has to be the #1 state for random, no-name Democrat congresspeople. 

It's the sheer number of them. Hell, I'm from CA and I probably couldn't name half our Democratic representatives (especially the dozen plus from the LA County area alone).

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

https://twitter.com/Jana_Kadah/status/1777854460099952838

Boooo!

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

https://twitter.com/Jana_Kadah/status/1777854460099952838

Seems like Liccardo is behind this.

Also, what happens if all three advance and then in November no one gets 50%? Is there another top-two runoff or does the person with the plurality win?

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1777880734784491822
This is deranged.

[Schiff for Senate]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1777880734784491822
This is deranged.

This guy cannot be serious. What a goddamn clown.
Honestly hoping he loses just because of this behavior. If he wants to act like a sore loser, might as well make him one.

[Lambsbread]

Democrats have GOT to abandon this rhetoric immediately. It pissed me off when Katie Porter did it too. It's not cute, it's not funny, and it's not accurate. It just plays right into the hands of the people who want to delegitimize our democracy.

[Vosem]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1777880734784491822
This is deranged.

"Straight out of Trump's playbook" is odd rhetoric, but I think I agree with Low that what Liccardo is doing here is pretty unethical. He's decided to spend lots of money so that voters get fewer choices, even though his own campaign's continuation is guaranteed. (We'll wait and see what Simitian thinks about this, but I think this makes a united Simitian/Low front against him in the general much likelier.)

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1777880734784491822
This is deranged.

This guy cannot be serious. What a goddamn clown.
Honestly hoping he loses just because of this behavior. If he wants to act like a sore loser, might as well make him one.

Agree. I didn't do any research into these candidates to know what sets them apart, but now I'm definitely rooting against Low.

[coloradocowboi]

Rhetoric aside, Liccardo having a supporter file for a recount without owning up to it is extremely cowardly. It is kind of upsetting that this corporate puppet is basically guaranteed to win now

Low definitely won't beat him now, and I think Simitian was probably already an underdog

[free my dawg]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1777880734784491822
This is deranged.

This guy cannot be serious. What a goddamn clown.
Honestly hoping he loses just because of this behavior. If he wants to act like a sore loser, might as well make him one.

Agree. I didn't do any research into these candidates to know what sets them apart, but now I'm definitely rooting against Low.

Very fun to see the Republican caucus of the party rail against the progressive. Glad to see who I should support!

[GeorgiaModerate]

I mentioned this earlier, but once the tie became clear I talked to a colleague of mine who lived in that area for decades until last year.  She's quite politically aware and knows Evan Low slightly.  Her opinion was that Liccardo would definitely prefer a 2-way race, especially against Simitian, as Liccardo and Low would appeal to a lot of the same voters.

[Schiff for Senate]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1777880734784491822
This is deranged.

This guy cannot be serious. What a goddamn clown.
Honestly hoping he loses just because of this behavior. If he wants to act like a sore loser, might as well make him one.

Agree. I didn't do any research into these candidates to know what sets them apart, but now I'm definitely rooting against Low.

Same here. I do tend to be a bit skeptical of young upstarts like Low and am slightly biased toward candidates who seem older and more experienced (Liccardo and especially Simitian definitely fit the bill, and I think there's definitely some truth to these perceptions considering Eshoo endorsed Simitian).

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Rhetoric aside, Liccardo having a supporter file for a recount without owning up to it is extremely cowardly. It is kind of upsetting that this corporate puppet is basically guaranteed to win now

Low definitely won't beat him now, and I think Simitian was probably already an underdog

Honestly, if there was ever a district where being a "corporate puppet" is a good fit, it would be this one given all the important Silicon Valley corporations headquartered here. If anything, being a "corporate puppet" would just be accurately and effectively representing the constituents (which include not just the residents but the corporations).

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Rhetoric aside, Liccardo having a supporter file for a recount without owning up to it is extremely cowardly. It is kind of upsetting that this corporate puppet is basically guaranteed to win now

Low definitely won't beat him now, and I think Simitian was probably already an underdog

Honestly, if there was ever a district where being a "corporate puppet" is a good fit, it would be this one given all the important Silicon Valley corporations headquartered here. If anything, being a "corporate puppet" would just be accurately and effectively representing the constituents (which include not just the residents but the corporations).

Ironically, the case that established corporate personhood, Santa Clara County v. Southern Pacific had the two counties that this district is part of (San Mateo being the other) lose.

[Canis]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1777880734784491822
This is deranged.

This guy cannot be serious. What a goddamn clown.
Honestly hoping he loses just because of this behavior. If he wants to act like a sore loser, might as well make him one.

Agree. I didn't do any research into these candidates to know what sets them apart, but now I'm definitely rooting against Low.

Very fun to see the Republican caucus of the party rail against the progressive. Glad to see who I should support!

Of the three Low is the most progressive, but hes certainly not a squad type dem, the differences between the three candidates are ultimately marginal, Low is slightly to the left of Simitan and Liccardo who are both moderates.
https://twitter.com/Evan_Low/status/1711166354206978545

[LostFellow]

I have spent a good amount of time in this district, and my impression is that:

• Simitian is the candidate of the boomer NIMBYs who have no actual vision for the future. e.g. in the SF Chronicle's endorsement of Liccardo, the editorial boarded how Simitian gave "few details about what specific policies he would champion."
• Liccardo is the candidate of young and middle-aged center-left normie Dems, tech companies, a small proportion of progressive interest groups, and a few chamber of commerce types who strategically favor Liccardo.
• Low is the definite progressive in the race, posturing towards the median of the House Progressive Caucus, which is as far left as acceptable in Silicon Valley. His support comes mainly from younger folks and most of the progressive interest groups, along with the small amount of labor representation in the area.

There also is the factor of Asian and Hispanic identity groups favoring Low and Liccardo respectively, but I don't know how those dynamics intersect with ideology and the nimby/yimby divides.

[Senator Incitatus]

Please, please, please, please let the recount result in a tie.