CA-16 Eshoo to Retire (4/5: Exact Tie for Second Position)

[Oryxslayer]

Well, she isn't announcing it quite yet. But she seems to have told people it's happening and the announcement is forthcoming soon.

She's one of the many California congressional Reps over 70 who I expect to retiring alongside their champion, Pelosi, either this cycle or next.

Eshoo is the only Armenian and Assyrian American presently in Congress. Maybe Schiff will be succeeded a different Armenian American, but it's more likely her perspective will not be replaced.  The state Legislators with overlapping districts include Marc Berman of HD23, Evan Low of HD26, Gail Pellerin of HD28, Josh Becker of SD13, and David Cortese of SD15. But since the seat lies at the heart of Silicon Valley's money, don't be surprised if a self-funder starts to dominate the narrative.

[Lambsbread]

ok now we're just making up random people

[Roll Roons]

I wouldn't be surprised if it ends up being an all-Democrat top-two between some rich Silicon Valley person and a local official, with the Silicon Valley person winning out.

[Vosem]

I believe (I may be wrong) that this is the most educated district outside New York, which made it interesting to me that it was represented by someone with an associate's degree.

Anyway, multiple prominent Democrats in the state legislature live within this seat, as do plenty of local-level people, and there would be a huge number of interested self-funders. Off the top of my head, I think Lexi Reese, who is running an asterisk-level Senate campaign, would be pretty formidable if she chose to drop down to this race.

[Tekken_Guy]

I believe (I may be wrong) that this is the most educated district outside New York, which made it interesting to me that it was represented by someone with an associate's degree.

Anyway, multiple prominent Democrats in the state legislature live within this seat, as do plenty of local-level people, and there would be a huge number of interested self-funders. Off the top of my head, I think Lexi Reese, who is running an asterisk-level Senate campaign, would be pretty formidable if she chose to drop down to this race.

Is Reese from this seat?

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/RepAnnaEshoo/status/1727010758368907554

And it's official.

[Sestak]

Media has been talking for some time about former San Jose mayor Sam Liccardo having an interest in the seat; I think redistricting last cycle did increase the seat’s cut into San Jose.

[Del Tachi]

ok now we're just making up random people

California has to be the #1 state for random, no-name Democrat congresspeople. 

Like who has ever heard of Mark DeSaulnier, Norma Torres, or Judy Chu!?

[Vosem]

ok now we're just making up random people

California has to be the #1 state for random, no-name Democrat congresspeople. 

Like who has ever heard of Mark DeSaulnier, Norma Torres, or Judy Chu!?

Similarly Texas is #1 for random no-name Republicans. It's harder to seek higher office if you're from a large state, so its members of Congress are much less well-known on elections forums.

[Zedonathin2020]

2024 might just be a record retirement year at this point

[Benjamin Frank]

If Eshoo does retire this cycle, that will leave 27 Democrats and 6 Republicans in the House wwho were first elected before 2000.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

2024 might just be a record retirement year at this point

2022 had fifty retirements, 2020 has thirty-six, 2018 had fifty-five, 2016 had forty-two. We’re still in the realm of normal amount of retirements.

[Tekken_Guy]

2024 might just be a record retirement year at this point

2022 had fifty retirements, 2020 has thirty-six, 2018 had fifty-five, 2016 had forty-two. We’re still in the realm of normal amount of retirements.

How many do we have so far?

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

2024 might just be a record retirement year at this point

2022 had fifty retirements, 2020 has thirty-six, 2018 had fifty-five, 2016 had forty-two. We’re still in the realm of normal amount of retirements.

How many do we have so far?

We’re at thrity-two, so it’d have to about double for it to break 2018’s number (highest since 2000)

[Atlas Force]

If Eshoo does retire this cycle, that will leave 27 Democrats and 6 Republicans in the House wwho were first elected before 2000.

cOnGrEsS hAs ToO mAnY oLd pEoPlE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

(Next time you see someone on the Internet unironically saying that, just send them this link: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=560970.0)

[Bismarck]

Media has been talking for some time about former San Jose mayor Sam Liccardo having an interest in the seat; I think redistricting last cycle did increase the seat’s cut into San Jose.

Liccardo seems like he would be a formidable candidate, right?

[Benjamin Frank]

If Eshoo does retire this cycle, that will leave 27 Democrats and 6 Republicans in the House wwho were first elected before 2000.

cOnGrEsS hAs ToO mAnY oLd pEoPlE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

(Next time you see someone on the Internet unironically saying that, just send them this link: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=560970.0)

Not necessarily. The minimum age to run for the House of Representatives in 25, so a person elected at the age of 25 in 1998 would now be only 50 years old.  The problem is that many of these people (certainly not Nancy Pelosi though) are essentially careerists.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

I saw a rumor on twitter Evan Low’s chief of staff is running for Low’s seat, and that Low might run for Eshoo’s

[Sestak]

I saw a rumor on twitter Evan Low’s chief of staff is running for Low’s seat, and that Low might run for Eshoo’s

Yeah the two names I’ve already heard rumored in the last day are Low (state rep, former Campbell mayor, Andrew Yang campaign co-chair) and Joe Simitian (Santa Clara co. Supervisor, former state senator and state rep).

In addition to those two and Liccardo, the one name I’d keep in mind is State Sen. Josh Becker, who represents around two-thirds of the district at present. No idea if he wants to run but he’s always seemed like an ambitious guy. Fairly standard Newsom-aligned dem.

[Atlas Force]

Former Saratoga city councilor Rishi Kumar, who primary challenged Eshoo in 2020 and 2022 and got into the top-two on both occasions, is already running, having filed months ago for what he probably thought was just another rematch.

FWIW the 36.8% he got in 2020, and the 42.2% he got in 2022, both seem like relatively high performances against an entrenched incumbent. A lot of it might be Indian-Americans voting for the candidate from their community (did the district's Indian-American population go up in redistricting? It could explain him doing even better in 2022 compared to 2020).

[Sestak]

Former Saratoga city councilor Rishi Kumar, who primary challenged Eshoo in 2020 and 2022 and got into the top-two on both occasions, is already running, having filed months ago for what he probably thought was just another rematch.

FWIW the 36.8% he got in 2020, and the 42.2% he got in 2022, both seem like relatively high performances against an entrenched incumbent. A lot of it might be Indian-Americans voting for the candidate from their community (did the district's Indian-American population go up in redistricting? It could explain him doing even better in 2022 compared to 2020).

For those not familiar with him, Kumar is a grifter’s grifter. He is the darling candidate of the ardently pro-BJP subset of Indians in the district, and from what I can tell tries to latch on to some more generic Asian identitarian stuff as well. His campaigns essentially operate as resume mills - he hires a bunch of high school kids from the area as interns so they can put campaign work on their college applications. This happens continuously throughout the cycle - he had people in July of 2021 knocking doors to tell people how awesome Rishi Kumar was. His staffers have also been known to place his signs in the lawns of any Indian household regardless of whether they support him or not.

In addition to the BJP faction’s backing, Kumar has clearly been the preferred candidate of Republicans both times he’s run - including both people who actually vote Republican as well as the substantial contingent of people who identify with some conservative lean but would never actually vote for Trump or Elder or anyone else the GOP puts up. At least part of his improvement can probably be chalked up to 2022 simply being a redder year than 2020 - especially with these types of districts where party-line Democrats didn’t have much to turn out for.

[Хahar 🤔]

Sestak is, as usual, the person to listen to on this subject. I was going to chime in about how Evan Low is clearly very ambitious and checks multiple identity boxes until I realized that I was actually thinking of Alex Lee, who represents the Asian district containing Milpitas and Fremont whereas Low represents the Asian district containing Sunnyvale and Cupertino. Both of them are both Chinese and gay, and I guess Low is plenty ambitious too.

Joe Simitian is an interesting name because it's one that I've known genuinely forever. He's been a member of either the county board of supervisors (a prominent and powerful position in California) or the state legislature continuously since he was first elected to county office in 1996. That said, it's pretty common for big names like this to try and fail to win a new office in the endless game of musical chairs that term limits produce: Sally Lieber, who was the #2 Democrat in the state assembly in the late 2000s and was elected to the state board of equalization in 2022, in between those successes finished in third place in a state senatorial election in 2020. A congressional seat means freedom from term limits and having to regularly switch offices and electorates, which is a powerful draw for everyone.

I wouldn't be surprised if it ends up being an all-Democrat top-two between some rich Silicon Valley person and a local official, with the Silicon Valley person winning out.

I, on the other hand, would be very surprised by this. The only local partisan election that I can recall fitting this description in the last few years is the 15th senatorial district in 2020, where longtime Democratic apparatchik Dave Cortese faced Ann Ravel, an Obama bureaucrat whose campaign received a couple million dollars from the rideshare industry. Cortese won by nine and a half points.

[Sestak]

Local sources are now reporting that San Mateo has cured its final ballot, for Simitian, and that counting is now fully complete, as follows:

Liccardo (Dem) 38,489
Low (Dem) 30,249
Simitian (Dem) 30,249

Almost certainly there will be a recount requested, but as it stands this would send us to a three-way November general.

[Pres Mike]

In the open primary to replace Anna Eshoo, there is a tie. The top two will go to the general election.

Former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo got 21% of the vote. Both Evan Low and Joe Simitian got 16%. They both got 30,249 votes.

Either Low or Simitian can request a recount, but must pay for it. As things stand, there will be a three way general election in November

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/04/04/vote-tie-california-house-primary-00150613

[Sir Mohamed]

Has that ever happened before? I don't recall a similar tied result with that amount of votes.