What does the post-Trump GOP look like?

[Alben Barkley]

One way or another -- whether this wild ride of a soap opera ends with its antihero protagonist in a prison cell, six feet under, losing once again, or winning and graciously serving out his term (LOL) -- eventually there will be a GOP without Donald Trump.

What does that look like? He's clearly irrevocably shaken the party to its core. Who will be his most likely successors? His children? Sycophants in Congress like Hawley? Or will the GOP actually change course and moderate, or at least try to gaslight us all into pretending they never supported Trump, much like they did after Bush's presidency ended in disaster?

What do you think is the most likely outcome?

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Democrats win with 400+ EVs in 2028 with House majorities larger than Obama. Idk how the GOP will change after that, but they probably will.

[Tekken_Guy]

If he wins we'll get four years of him behaving like a wannabe tinpot dictator, stacking federal agencies with conservative activists and cronies, running his DOJ like Ken Paxton, being reckless with foreign policy, and possibly crashing the economy. See pre-10/7 Netanyahu. Expect the next four years to be a blue tsunami that makes his first term look like a ripple by comparison. He anoints his VP or one of his kids as his successor in 2028, who get blown out 2008-style.

If he loses, he'll spend the rest of his career ranting about how he was robbed again.

[Devils30]

Democrats win with 400+ EVs in 2028 with House majorities larger than Obama. Idk how the GOP will change after that, but they probably will.

Yeah for once we agree, its interesting but you can totally see how the loser of 2024 is really the long-term winner.

If Biden wins- GOP probably retakes House in 2026 midterm, Collins retains seat in Maine (if she runs), Dems have a hard time in NC, AK getting Cooper, Peltola in and Kemp can beat Ossoff in GA.

2028 Dems then have a major dilemma with Harris as frontrunner (not to mention a recession) and her campaign calling everyone who doesn't support her a racist. Despite being pro-Israel herself, the people she hires on her campaign will likely be garbage and cause problems on this issue judging by her history. Youngkin could easily beat Harris with 350+ electoral votes and a popular vote win. The center-right revives while the identity left crumbles. It begins a downward spiral where the Dems retreat to the AOC wing for the next decade.

If Trump wins- Dems very likely can get 240+ maybe even 250 in the House, especially if Trump tries using the FDA to ban mailing of abortion pills. In Senate, if 2024 GOP is only at 52-48 with WV/OH/MT, 2026 and 2028 could be downright ugly. GA is uncompetitive, Dems flip NC, AK with Cooper and Peltola and neither is particularly close. Texas also might fall in the unpopular Trump midterm scenario.

2028 is not much better for GOP, Dems hold all 2022 seats and gain at least NC, WI with FL/OH/IA in outer limits depending on how bad things get for GOP.

Dems might have one of Whitmer/Shapiro or Moore at the top of the ticket and GOP will be saddled with Trump's crony VP. A Democratic majority here would be able to accomplish a lot with 54+ Senate seats and the right would be discredited.

[Alben Barkley]

OK you all are talking about the political ramifications of either party winning in 2024 in terms of midterm results, etc. Assuming that we still have normal elections after a second Trump win.

That's great and all, but with my question I was more interested in what the character/make-up/direction of the GOP itself is after Trump. Who are his most likely successors? Will they continue Trump's direction or back off from it? Etc.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

OK you all are talking about the political ramifications of either party winning in 2024 in terms of midterm results, etc. Assuming that we still have normal elections after a second Trump win.

That's great and all, but with my question I was more interested in what the character/make-up/direction of the GOP itself is after Trump. Who are his most likely successors? Will they continue Trump's direction or back off from it? Etc.

The GOP and whoever Trump's VP is gets wiped out in 2028 and they will find a completely new direction.

[dw93]

Trump's positions on immigration and protectionism live on in the Republican party after he's gone. It also becomes even more pro Russia and less anti China as the Democrats become more hawkish.

[Tekken_Guy]

Democrats win with 400+ EVs in 2028 with House majorities larger than Obama. Idk how the GOP will change after that, but they probably will.

Yeah for once we agree, its interesting but you can totally see how the loser of 2024 is really the long-term winner.

If Biden wins- GOP probably retakes House in 2026 midterm, Collins retains seat in Maine (if she runs), Dems have a hard time in NC, AK getting Cooper, Peltola in and Kemp can beat Ossoff in GA.

2028 Dems then have a major dilemma with Harris as frontrunner (not to mention a recession) and her campaign calling everyone who doesn't support her a racist. Despite being pro-Israel herself, the people she hires on her campaign will likely be garbage and cause problems on this issue judging by her history. Youngkin could easily beat Harris with 350+ electoral votes and a popular vote win. The center-right revives while the identity left crumbles. It begins a downward spiral where the Dems retreat to the AOC wing for the next decade.

If Trump wins- Dems very likely can get 240+ maybe even 250 in the House, especially if Trump tries using the FDA to ban mailing of abortion pills. In Senate, if 2024 GOP is only at 52-48 with WV/OH/MT, 2026 and 2028 could be downright ugly. GA is uncompetitive, Dems flip NC, AK with Cooper and Peltola and neither is particularly close. Texas also might fall in the unpopular Trump midterm scenario.

2028 is not much better for GOP, Dems hold all 2022 seats and gain at least NC, WI with FL/OH/IA in outer limits depending on how bad things get for GOP.

Dems might have one of Whitmer/Shapiro or Moore at the top of the ticket and GOP will be saddled with Trump's crony VP. A Democratic majority here would be able to accomplish a lot with 54+ Senate seats and the right would be discredited.

I highly doubt Cooper, Peltola, or Kemp run for Senate in 2026 if their party’s president wins in 2024. I’m skeptical any of the three run at all. Peltola will probably wait for Murkowski to retire, Kemp may want to run for president more, and Cooper’s getting up there in age.

[Devils30]

Democrats win with 400+ EVs in 2028 with House majorities larger than Obama. Idk how the GOP will change after that, but they probably will.

Yeah for once we agree, its interesting but you can totally see how the loser of 2024 is really the long-term winner.

If Biden wins- GOP probably retakes House in 2026 midterm, Collins retains seat in Maine (if she runs), Dems have a hard time in NC, AK getting Cooper, Peltola in and Kemp can beat Ossoff in GA.

2028 Dems then have a major dilemma with Harris as frontrunner (not to mention a recession) and her campaign calling everyone who doesn't support her a racist. Despite being pro-Israel herself, the people she hires on her campaign will likely be garbage and cause problems on this issue judging by her history. Youngkin could easily beat Harris with 350+ electoral votes and a popular vote win. The center-right revives while the identity left crumbles. It begins a downward spiral where the Dems retreat to the AOC wing for the next decade.

If Trump wins- Dems very likely can get 240+ maybe even 250 in the House, especially if Trump tries using the FDA to ban mailing of abortion pills. In Senate, if 2024 GOP is only at 52-48 with WV/OH/MT, 2026 and 2028 could be downright ugly. GA is uncompetitive, Dems flip NC, AK with Cooper and Peltola and neither is particularly close. Texas also might fall in the unpopular Trump midterm scenario.

2028 is not much better for GOP, Dems hold all 2022 seats and gain at least NC, WI with FL/OH/IA in outer limits depending on how bad things get for GOP.

Dems might have one of Whitmer/Shapiro or Moore at the top of the ticket and GOP will be saddled with Trump's crony VP. A Democratic majority here would be able to accomplish a lot with 54+ Senate seats and the right would be discredited.

I highly doubt Cooper, Peltola, or Kemp run for Senate in 2026 if their party’s president wins in 2024. I’m skeptical any of the three run at all. Peltola will probably wait for Murkowski to retire, Kemp may want to run for president more, and Cooper’s getting up there in age.

I could see Murkowski caucusing with the Dems if Trump is once again POTUS. Agree that Cooper, Peltola more likely to run in a Trump midterm and NC Dems might have Jeff Jackson as another strong option.

If Biden wins, Harris is going to be a major problem for them in 2028.

[Tekken_Guy]

Democrats win with 400+ EVs in 2028 with House majorities larger than Obama. Idk how the GOP will change after that, but they probably will.

Yeah for once we agree, its interesting but you can totally see how the loser of 2024 is really the long-term winner.

If Biden wins- GOP probably retakes House in 2026 midterm, Collins retains seat in Maine (if she runs), Dems have a hard time in NC, AK getting Cooper, Peltola in and Kemp can beat Ossoff in GA.

2028 Dems then have a major dilemma with Harris as frontrunner (not to mention a recession) and her campaign calling everyone who doesn't support her a racist. Despite being pro-Israel herself, the people she hires on her campaign will likely be garbage and cause problems on this issue judging by her history. Youngkin could easily beat Harris with 350+ electoral votes and a popular vote win. The center-right revives while the identity left crumbles. It begins a downward spiral where the Dems retreat to the AOC wing for the next decade.

If Trump wins- Dems very likely can get 240+ maybe even 250 in the House, especially if Trump tries using the FDA to ban mailing of abortion pills. In Senate, if 2024 GOP is only at 52-48 with WV/OH/MT, 2026 and 2028 could be downright ugly. GA is uncompetitive, Dems flip NC, AK with Cooper and Peltola and neither is particularly close. Texas also might fall in the unpopular Trump midterm scenario.

2028 is not much better for GOP, Dems hold all 2022 seats and gain at least NC, WI with FL/OH/IA in outer limits depending on how bad things get for GOP.

Dems might have one of Whitmer/Shapiro or Moore at the top of the ticket and GOP will be saddled with Trump's crony VP. A Democratic majority here would be able to accomplish a lot with 54+ Senate seats and the right would be discredited.

I highly doubt Cooper, Peltola, or Kemp run for Senate in 2026 if their party’s president wins in 2024. I’m skeptical any of the three run at all. Peltola will probably wait for Murkowski to retire, Kemp may want to run for president more, and Cooper’s getting up there in age.

I could see Murkowski caucusing with the Dems if Trump is once again POTUS. Agree that Cooper, Peltola more likely to run in a Trump midterm and NC Dems might have Jeff Jackson as another strong option.

If Biden wins, Harris is going to be a major problem for them in 2028.

Jackson is likely the guy for the Budd seat, not the Tillis one. Wiley Nickel is another option and I think he might be the big name to watch if Cooper passes on a run in ‘26.

[RINO Tom]

If he wins we'll get four years of him behaving like a wannabe tinpot dictator, stacking federal agencies with conservative activists and cronies, running his DOJ like Ken Paxton, being reckless with foreign policy, and possibly crashing the economy. See pre-10/7 Netanyahu. Expect the next four years to be a blue tsunami that makes his first term look like a ripple by comparison. He anoints his VP or one of his kids as his successor in 2028, who get blown out 2008-style.

If he loses, he'll spend the rest of his career ranting about how he was robbed again.

How does this in any way answer what the "post-Trump GOP" looks like?

[wnwnwn]

MAGA with a more suburb friendly rethoric.

[Reactionary Libertarian]

Three potential futures for GOP. I’m assuming that Dobbs is the last hurrah of the Christian Right and they will have significantly less influence ten years from now:

1) Tories- suffer big losses at some point (TX flips) and really change. More focused on finance, range of views on social issues so right can’t dominate. Pro free trade, legal immigration, internationalism. Would win big majorities. I don’t think this will happen because the Right never, ever does this.

2) Nationalism- the rising right wing staffers and not so closeted white nationalists take over the party. Becomes more high-IQ and ideological, focusing on stopping all immigration. Very interested in purging the federal government, may be more left on fiscal issues. I think this is the direction the GOP is going in now, but I don’t think it will work. Most white Republicans do not  support white nationalism, even if they may be vaguely uncomfortable with the US becoming majority-minority. Most GOP voters are not super ideological and fancy plans to purge the “Regime” come off as creepy.

3) Full Trumpism- GOP basically abandons policy and becomes fully about grievances. Embraces more conspiracy theories and becomes about masculinity as the Dems and the elite become more feminized. Think Andrew Tate but less extreme. Party is OK with abortion but wants men to be able to avoid child support. Pro-business but also anti big corporations. Does very well with white and Latino men with no college, decently well with black men (>20%). This seems to be the path of least resistance for the GOP. The 2 of traditional “3 stools” of the GOP have been destroyed by Trump- the deficit hawks and the neocons- although Congress doesn’t reflect that yet. After Dobbs destroys the last leg, the GOP can fully transition into being non-ideological.

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

Interesting food for thought from Re: Will generational turnover favor Republicans this time?
Shifts in relative partisanship could drive changes in the parties' platforms.

Yes, but 2024 is likely too soon.  As others have noted, this really kicks in when a lot of people born after the 2008 crash become eligible to vote.  There are 2 components to this:

1. Statistically, post-2008 children were very disproportionately born and/or raised in the South.  Between fewer pandemic school closures and abortion restrictions, this is likely to get even more dramatic for post-2018 children. Regardless of whether national politics shifts Republican, what's more clear is that culturally Southern influence will grow.  This also means the South will come to functionally control K-12 education.  The 2030 census could be an important turning point for this as by most models the South cumulatively gains a medium size state worth of EVs.  There is a world in which this greatly benefits Republicans.  However, it's also possible that Democrats will gradually become more effective at competing in the South as we have seen in GA and VA over the last decade or so.  

2. Certain non-Southern megacities are approaching a new equilibrium in which only devoutly religious people get married and have kids in significant numbers.  This could be driving the R trend in NYC and parts of CA.  Given the astronomical Dem margins in these cities most likely it will be a slow generational climb out of the basement, like when R's gradually broke the Solid South after WWII.  However, if NY becomes a competitive state from this, it would be a political earthquake.

3. If the economy falters meaningfully in the late 2020's/early 2030's, there will be a forced choice between cutting social security and medicare or raising taxes significantly on young people to keep it stable.  Democrats seem likely to choose the latter, which could alienate young families.  Parents in particular may be less concerned about old age benefits because they could rely on their children to some degree if necessary.  

Put these together and my main takeaway is that today's Democrats have become unsustainably socially liberal for the long run.  However, there's also a considerable risk to R's from Trumpy populism if it alienates enough of the South over time.  

To be fair, even pre-2008, the idea of raising multiple children in a large family was always more associated with Conservative politics. If you look at where people were raising Children in say the 70s, 80s, or 90s, it was largely Republican-leaning suburban communities, and that hasn't panned out in Millennials, even white Millennials being notably more Conservative - quite the opposite infact. I would also point out as you concede that the South isn't a universally Republican/Conservative region; where within the South people are having kids matters a ton here.

I also think an important missing variable is how strongly offspring are influenced by their parent's politics. If it's only a relatively modest or weak correlation, other factors like different cultural circumstances for the new generation could easily overpower any bias caused by parental politics. What would scare me the most as a Dem would be if the people having the most kids are all the hyper-religious homeschool types that raise their kid in a very small bubble, cause that gives parents a ton of ability over their kids worldview and belief structure, but I think that still is a loud minority.

I'd also add for #3, presumably Republicans would have to take up the opposite position of cutting or eliminating SS and Medicare, which would still be unpopular with young people, especially people around the ages of 25-35 who have already paid into SS for a few years feeling like they're blatantly being robbed. This is still a complete hypothetical though so it's truly impossible to say what would happen.

Well, as I acknowledged, more culturally Southern doesn't necessarily have to play out as more Republican.  It probably starts out that way on the margins with the parties competing on the current issue sets, but it doesn't have to stay that way. In the highest fertility Southern states (basically Texas and everything bordering it), plenty of moderate "normies" are still having 3 or 4 kids.

The potential for a more dramatic shift is where it's only the social conservatives having kids or having a 2nd kid.  However, they are also starting from only ~20% of the population in those places.  On a related note, it will be interesting to see if a religious group that renounces contraception ever gains serious political power in South Korea or Japan.  That could be a harbinger for whether this type of dramatic change would viable in the lowest fertility NE/West Coast states.

Regarding the social security stuff, I think a lot of young people have already written it off and/or assume they will get less than half of what was promised.  Add in families where either the parents are getting more support from the children and/or the children will be inheriting more than social security could ever provide, and I think a lot of young families would prefer social security cuts to tax hikes.  Keep in mind that a lot of affluent large families have used the stratospheric Trump era estate tax cutoffs to essentially set up a private welfare state/UBI for their descendants.

This is all medium/long run stuff, though.  In the short run, I am more upbeat than CW for the Dems.  Unemployment should stay structurally low as long as the Baby Boomers are old enough to be retired and young enough to do a lot of (non-healthcare) consuming and the accumulated effect of the 2020 census maps means 2028 is their best chance of a significant EC advantage compared to the popular vote in a long time.   IMO both parties are facing short term and long term incentives that are reversed, because of the likelihood that the South replaces the Midwest as the pivotal region in presidential elections.

I'm curious where in CA there's evidence of R shifts from fertility differentials. I understand the mechanism behind this happening but haven't seen anyone post spatial data indicating that this is happening. All I've seen recently are vague claims that highly educated parts of the Bay Area have shifted mildly R despite increasing educational polarization, which I suspect mainly have to do with increased turnout in Titanium D (and heavily POC) suburbia.

[andre1113]

MAGA with a more suburb friendly rethoric.

This is basically Desantis before he runs against trump

[oldtimer]

Inner party demographics mean that the GOP over time becomes less "Establishment" White more "Brown" Minority heavy.

That would hamper the Congressional GOP during Midterms.

They would be at a continuous disadvantage in the Senate, due to the constant infighting between the old guard and the newbies, and the long Senate terms that makes change longer to take effect.

Policy wise they will continue to gradually become more working class and less northern european in culture and foreign affairs.

Since it took 100 years for the parties to do a total demographic flip, I say the transformation won't be completed soon.

[MarkD]

A return to normalcy.

[pikachu]

I do wonder what economic policy under Trump and a GOP trifecta looks like in a world where interest rates remain elevated, we’re near full employment and deficits seem to matter. Which means that a tax cut would probably be a bad idea atm, but it’s also the one policy that the GOP has a permanent consensus on. Non-Trump Republicans are at least rhetorically are big on fiscal responsibility thru cutting SS/Medicare, but a big part of Trump’s appeal has been that he doesn’t do that.

Maybe a GOP trifecta doesn’t end up trying to do anything, but it’s hard to imagine a GOP trifecta not bothering to even try cutting taxes. Theoretically, I could see this creating a fracture in the GOP that a populist Trump 2016 type of candidate questioning GOP economic orthodoxy could exploit, but it’s hard to see who that’d be because Trump and his acolytes have stuck with that orthodoxy.

[Del Tachi]

Too early to tell.  If Trump is re-elected next year and goes on to have a successful second term, that would make him the most lauded GOP president since Reagan.

If he loses graciously or his second term goes the way of Dubya than I expect the GOP will quickly want to move on post-2028.  If he loses ungraciously...his grip on the party will continue?   

[All Along The Watchtower]

Weirder and more disturbing still. And whatever that looks like, it won’t be pretty.

You don’t become a glorified personality cult for the Outer Boroughs landlord-turned-pop culture punchline and simply come out the other side untransformed, unscarred. And the corrosive effects of that aren’t limited to the Republican Party, even though they’re obviously at least tied for being the institution most compromised by DJT (toss-up between them and the media IMO—argument for the latter involves going back decades before Trump took over the GOP).