Will Arizona ever vote to the left of New Mexico?

[Fwillb21]

If the Phoenix metro continues growing and trending left with college whites and Latinos in New Mexico either trend right or don't have any movement in their voting pattern, it could theoretically happen at some point. I don't see this happening anytime soon because in 2020 Biden won New Mexico by nearly 11 points and he only won Arizona by 0.3 points. If I were to guess, I could maybe see this happening by 2036 at the earliest.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Very unlikely unless college whites start voting left of hispanics, then its a possibility.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Maybe if the oil areas of southeastern NM see some sort of boom; the main issue for Rs in both states right now is that both states are dominated by urban/suburban areas, and a good chunk of rurals are Native Americans and more liberal Hispanics.

That's the other thing is the NM Hispanics can't necessarily be equated to AZ Hispanics. Generally, NM Hispanics have not been shifting as hard to the right as AZ Hispanics for a multitude of reasons.