Is the polling industry wrong, or is something else wrong?

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

All the pollings sugggest Trump is ahead right now, nationally and in the states.

But election results from last week suggests that Democrats are not dead.

What's going ON?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

All the pollings sugggest Trump is ahead right now, nationally and in the states.

But election results from last week suggests that Democrats are not dead.

What's going ON?

Biden is not all Democrats.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

All the pollings sugggest Trump is ahead right now, nationally and in the states.

But election results from last week suggests that Democrats are not dead.

What's going ON?

Biden is not all Democrats.

Do you think every one of his polling ills can be traced back to his age? You think Americans give Democrats the thumbs up, but not Biden because he's too old for them?

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

All the pollings sugggest Trump is ahead right now, nationally and in the states.

But election results from last week suggests that Democrats are not dead.

What's going ON?

1.Democrats benefit from very low turnout ever since Dobbs. Special elections between the same 2 candidates tend to be 10 points bluer than the midterm result (see Nebraska-1).

2.Democrats are way outperforming at the Senate level, like in 2022 (the House level is more mixed, where Rs won the popular vote by 2.8 in 2022). Sherrod Brown is still up.

3.The results in Virgnia were not great for Democrats. They still did 8-9 points worse than Biden, which would give Trump a 4 point popular vote win if applied nationwide.

4.Some voters probably blame Biden for Dobbs. Biden also gets blamed for the bad economy more than downballot Democrats do.

[wbrocks67]

Nonresponse bias was a major issue in 2020. It's not hard to believe it's an issue this year, just for the opposite side. One side has an active primary, the other doesn't. That can lead to whacky results, since one side is much more energized and paying attention to the race while another side isn't.

It's the same reason why some days we have Trump +1 with young voters and other days we have Biden +25. A lot of pollsters don't seem to be very good at working through this.

Another thing to note is that the generic ballot should be showing some strength for Democrats right now, given current election results. But it doesn't, it's basically 1 or 2% within the Biden/Trump margin.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Nonresponse bias was a major issue in 2020. It's not hard to believe it's an issue this year, just for the opposite side. One side has an active primary, the other doesn't. That can lead to whacky results, since one side is much more energized and paying attention to the race while another side isn't.

It's the same reason why some days we have Trump +1 with young voters and other days we have Biden +25. A lot of pollsters don't seem to be very good at working through this.

Another thing to note is that the generic ballot should be showing some strength for Democrats right now, given current election results. But it doesn't, it's basically 1 or 2% within the Biden/Trump margin.

We had an actual midterm in 2022, where the generic ballot was R +2.8. The generic ballot results make sense.

[wbrocks67]

538 released an in-depth article explaining that the 2023 elections don't mean anything in reference to 2024: https://abcnews.go.com/538/2023-elections-us-2024/story?id=104916558

LMAO - that is not all what it says. It pretty much boils down to: who knows.

So after all that analysis, I'm afraid that we're not much closer to answering the question of what last week's elections mean for future ones. Some of 2023's election results clearly tell us nothing about 2024; others may tell us something, but we can't really be sure; still others have historically been quite useful but are pointing in confusing directions this year. In other words, I don't recommend changing your 2024 outlooks based on what happened last week.

Also, the fact that he started the article with this is just ... so wrong on so many levels:

But after a Republican sweep in the 2021 elections failed to predict a mixed-but-generally-good-for-Democrats 2022 midterm

As if there wasn't some major news event in the middle of those two things.

You seem to be a very black or white type of person. No one is saying Ohio is going to go blue or Biden +12 after last weeks election results. But there are clearly *trends* that are happening that cannot be ignored.

[wbrocks67]

Nonresponse bias was a major issue in 2020. It's not hard to believe it's an issue this year, just for the opposite side. One side has an active primary, the other doesn't. That can lead to whacky results, since one side is much more energized and paying attention to the race while another side isn't.

It's the same reason why some days we have Trump +1 with young voters and other days we have Biden +25. A lot of pollsters don't seem to be very good at working through this.

Another thing to note is that the generic ballot should be showing some strength for Democrats right now, given current election results. But it doesn't, it's basically 1 or 2% within the Biden/Trump margin.

We had an actual midterm in 2022, where the generic ballot was R +2.8. The generic ballot results make sense.

2022 was not a national campaign, not sure why you're comparing the two. If you wanted to compare anything from 2022, you'd compare actual swing states/competitive races, where Democrats largely did well.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

538 released an in-depth article explaining that the 2023 elections don't mean anything in reference to 2024: https://abcnews.go.com/538/2023-elections-us-2024/story?id=104916558

LMAO - that is not all what it says. It pretty much boils down to: who knows.

So after all that analysis, I'm afraid that we're not much closer to answering the question of what last week's elections mean for future ones. Some of 2023's election results clearly tell us nothing about 2024; others may tell us something, but we can't really be sure; still others have historically been quite useful but are pointing in confusing directions this year. In other words, I don't recommend changing your 2024 outlooks based on what happened last week.

Also, the fact that he started the article with this is just ... so wrong on so many levels:

But after a Republican sweep in the 2021 elections failed to predict a mixed-but-generally-good-for-Democrats 2022 midterm

As if there wasn't some major news event in the middle of those two things.

You seem to be a very black or white type of person. No one is saying Ohio is going to go blue or Biden +12 after last weeks election results. But there are clearly *trends* that are happening that cannot be ignored.

Democrats still lost the Generic Congressional Ballot by 2.8 in the 2022 midterms, which isn't far off where it is now. The Democratic Incumbents did outperform in the Senate in 2022, but polling also suggests that Sherrod Brown is favored right now, for example.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Nonresponse bias was a major issue in 2020. It's not hard to believe it's an issue this year, just for the opposite side. One side has an active primary, the other doesn't. That can lead to whacky results, since one side is much more energized and paying attention to the race while another side isn't.

It's the same reason why some days we have Trump +1 with young voters and other days we have Biden +25. A lot of pollsters don't seem to be very good at working through this.

Another thing to note is that the generic ballot should be showing some strength for Democrats right now, given current election results. But it doesn't, it's basically 1 or 2% within the Biden/Trump margin.

We had an actual midterm in 2022, where the generic ballot was R +2.8. The generic ballot results make sense.

2022 was not a national campaign, not sure why you're comparing the two. If you wanted to compare anything from 2022, you'd compare actual swing states/competitive races, where Democrats largely did well.

Democrats still did worse in the swing states in 2022 in the Generic Congressional Ballot, losing everything except for Michigan, where abortion was on the ballot. In 2024, higher turnout in the whiter battlegrounds (ie Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania) probably hurts Democrats, because the drop-off is mostly non-college white.

[Sir Mohamed]

Polling is broken to a degree, and a decent amount of the electorate not yet fully paying attention. We're a year away from the election and polls generally tend to be off so far out. This time though it's more than just the usual pattern.

[Redban]

538 released an in-depth article explaining that the 2023 elections don't mean anything in reference to 2024: https://abcnews.go.com/538/2023-elections-us-2024/story?id=104916558

LMAO - that is not all what it says. It pretty much boils down to: who knows.

And that means the article's point is that the  2023 elections can't be used as some sort of foreshadowing of what 2024 will be. Your take is, "He didn't say yes or no. So let me go ahead and lean towards yes"

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

All the pollings sugggest Trump is ahead right now, nationally and in the states.

But election results from last week suggests that Democrats are not dead.

What's going ON?

Biden is not all Democrats.

Do you think every one of his polling ills can be traced back to his age? You think Americans give Democrats the thumbs up, but not Biden because he's too old for them?

Yes, it’s mostly his age.

But more generally, the Democratic candidate for Governor of Kentucky won by 5 points.  The Democratic candidate for Secretary of State of Kentucky lost by 21 points on the same day.  What’s going ON?

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

All the pollings sugggest Trump is ahead right now, nationally and in the states.

But election results from last week suggests that Democrats are not dead.

What's going ON?

Biden is not all Democrats.

Do you think every one of his polling ills can be traced back to his age? You think Americans give Democrats the thumbs up, but not Biden because he's too old for them?

Yes, it’s mostly his age.

But more generally, the Democratic candidate for Governor of Kentucky won by 5 points.  The Democratic candidate for Secretary of State of Kentucky lost by 21 points on the same day.  What’s going ON?

We are returning to the political norm in the Biden political era. The Trump era was an aberration with uniquely low split ticketing, no incumbency advantage, and uniform swings. We are now seeing more ancestral coalitions, higher split ticketing, and higher incumbency advantages.

[wbrocks67]

538 released an in-depth article explaining that the 2023 elections don't mean anything in reference to 2024: https://abcnews.go.com/538/2023-elections-us-2024/story?id=104916558

LMAO - that is not all what it says. It pretty much boils down to: who knows.

And that means the article's point is that the  2023 elections can't be used as some sort of foreshadowing of what 2024 will be. Your take is, "He didn't say yes or no. So let me go ahead and lean towards yes"

Well, yes, they're still major elections, so it would be ridiculous to just ignore them as if they mean nothing. You can always gleam something out of them. To ignore an election that has millions of voters in favor of n=500 polls is asinine imo, but you do you.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

538 released an in-depth article explaining that the 2023 elections don't mean anything in reference to 2024: https://abcnews.go.com/538/2023-elections-us-2024/story?id=104916558

LMAO - that is not all what it says. It pretty much boils down to: who knows.

And that means the article's point is that the  2023 elections can't be used as some sort of foreshadowing of what 2024 will be. Your take is, "He didn't say yes or no. So let me go ahead and lean towards yes"

Well, yes, they're still major elections, so it would be ridiculous to just ignore them as if they mean nothing. You can always gleam something out of them. To ignore an election that has millions of voters in favor of n=500 polls is asinine imo, but you do you.

Yes, that's why Romney won easily after Republicans did so well in 2010. I wonder why Nate Silver used n = 500 polls suggesting a small Obama advantage in the battleground states to forecast 2012 instead of actual election results from 2010.

[Rand]

Be patient.

[Roll Roons]

All the pollings sugggest Trump is ahead right now, nationally and in the states.

But election results from last week suggests that Democrats are not dead.

What's going ON?

Biden is not all Democrats.

Do you think every one of his polling ills can be traced back to his age? You think Americans give Democrats the thumbs up, but not Biden because he's too old for them?

Yes, it’s mostly his age.

But more generally, the Democratic candidate for Governor of Kentucky won by 5 points.  The Democratic candidate for Secretary of State of Kentucky lost by 21 points on the same day.  What’s going ON?

Adams is known for being very competent and nonpartisan in how he administers elections. He even beat back an election-denying primary challenger. In fact, I was surprised he didn't win by more.

[xavier110]

All the pollings sugggest Trump is ahead right now, nationally and in the states.

But election results from last week suggests that Democrats are not dead.

What's going ON?

Biden is not all Democrats.

Do you think every one of his polling ills can be traced back to his age? You think Americans give Democrats the thumbs up, but not Biden because he's too old for them?

Yes, it’s mostly his age.

But more generally, the Democratic candidate for Governor of Kentucky won by 5 points.  The Democratic candidate for Secretary of State of Kentucky lost by 21 points on the same day.  What’s going ON?

In the KY general the GOP Sec of State was running on expanding voting access and not being an election denier, lol. He’s not your typical GOP SoS. I would have voted for Beshear and him.

[DS0816]

All the pollings sugggest Trump is ahead right now, nationally and in the states.

But election results from last week suggests that Democrats are not dead.

What's going ON?

Timing.

This is November 2023.

There is doubt as to which of these two major political parties will become the winning party for U.S. President with Election 2024.

There would be less doubt if we were six months down the road—May 2024.

I offered my own take, on Election 2024, one year out:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=570288.msg9277537#msg9277537

I am considering a new update.

[Alben Barkley]

All the pollings sugggest Trump is ahead right now, nationally and in the states.

But election results from last week suggests that Democrats are not dead.

What's going ON?

Biden is not all Democrats.

Do you think every one of his polling ills can be traced back to his age? You think Americans give Democrats the thumbs up, but not Biden because he's too old for them?

I honestly think it is ALMOST that simple. Not QUITE that simple. But pretty close. Amazing how people on this board tie themselves into knots trying to avoid anything but the obvious conclusion based on practically all the polls and evidence: He's just too f--king old.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Trump has his support locked up already (and it isn't insurmountable) and Democrats need a bit more pushing to back Biden. I really think that's the simplest explanation right now. It's frustrating, but I have faith in the Biden campaign and American voters  as a whole after recent elections where it will put him ahead again in time.

Essentially:

Be patient.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Trump has his support locked up already and Democrats need a bit more pushing to back Biden. I really think that's the simplest explanation right now. It's frustrating, but I have faith in the Biden campaign and American voters  as a whole after recent elections where it will put him ahead again in time.

Essentially:

Be patient.

The polling itself doesn't frustrate me as there are 10 million explanations that are not “Biden is doomed”, it’s morseo people’s reactions to some of it. But yeah I don’t think you’re gonna see a significant change in polling until march-April when it sets in that Biden/trump are the nominees. That’s when polling in 2012, 2016 and 2020 started to consile.

[TodayJunior]

The answer is in the first part of this question but with “is” repositioned. The beclownment continues

[Mike88]

The national polls are currently not reliable. If you look at each state polling, from Atlas polling aggregate, and distribute the weight of each state in the popular vote, Biden and Trump are basically tied at 41%, with Biden holding a very tiny lead if you add decimals. Of course, it's still early and a lot of states don't have strong trends to show, but Trump +10 or Biden +10 polls nationwide, are junk and not remotely close to the truth.