WA (Northwest Progressive Institute): Reichert +2

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1725267361014403082

I could easily see Reichert getting 46 or 47, but beyond that...

[Progressive Pessimist]

Senator Smiley approves.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Governor races are often weird. I could see something like D +6 in the end (with D +15 President).

[Dave Hedgehog]

This is the governor's mansion that Dems have consistently held the longest. Absolutely dreadful optics here. Then again I don't know what to believe with these polls anymore; today's would have me think that D's are going to hold OH-SEN while losing WA-GOV.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

This is the governor's mansion that Dems have consistently held the longest. Absolutely dreadful optics here. Then again I don't know what to believe with these polls anymore; today's would have me think that D's are going to hold OH-SEN while losing WA-GOV.

I do think that polarization peaked during Trump’s first term and we are returning to the norm now.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

WA and OR G polls are always R bias until it's time to vote

[President Johnson]

Reichert is actually a good fit for the state though, isn't he? He's certainly more of a moderate Republican.

[SnowLabrador]

This is the governor's mansion that Dems have consistently held the longest. Absolutely dreadful optics here. Then again I don't know what to believe with these polls anymore; today's would have me think that D's are going to hold OH-SEN while losing WA-GOV.

There was a new OH-SEN poll today?

[Vosem]

Yeah, Reichert was a long-time very popular sheriff (famous for catching serial killers!) and Congressman in the state's major media market. Republicans have been burned on WA-Gov lots of times (I remember they led the polls for most of the campaign in 2008/2012, and then collapsed in the last weeks), but Reichert is definitely a serious candidate. He might be helped by the fact that the Washington legislature is no longer winnable for the GOP -- the state Senate remained competitive until there were huge losses in 2018, so now to check the generally Democratic state government Washington voters would need to elect a Republican Governor.

Republicans either solely or in coalition with Conservadems controlled the Washington state Senate from 2012 until a special election in 2017, which is kind of forgotten now, and between 2014 and 2018 Republicans were consistently within a few seats -- at the closest pass down just 50-48 -- from controlling the Washington state House.

[Fancyarcher]

Democrats obsession with the "good Republican" is sickening.

[President Johnson]

Yeah, Reichert was a long-time very popular sheriff (famous for catching serial killers!) and Congressman in the state's major media market. Republicans have been burned on WA-Gov lots of times (I remember they led the polls for most of the campaign in 2008/2012, and then collapsed in the last weeks), but Reichert is definitely a serious candidate. He might be helped by the fact that the Washington legislature is no longer winnable for the GOP -- the state Senate remained competitive until there were huge losses in 2018, so now to check the generally Democratic state government Washington voters would need to elect a Republican Governor.

Republicans either solely or in coalition with Conservadems controlled the Washington state Senate from 2012 until a special election in 2017, which is kind of forgotten now, and between 2014 and 2018 Republicans were consistently within a few seats -- at the closest pass down just 50-48 -- from controlling the Washington state House.

I remember seeing him on a German TV documentary about the so-called "Green River Killer" a few years ago and thought "wait a minute, I've heard of this guy before".

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Yeah, Reichert was a long-time very popular sheriff (famous for catching serial killers!) and Congressman in the state's major media market. Republicans have been burned on WA-Gov lots of times (I remember they led the polls for most of the campaign in 2008/2012, and then collapsed in the last weeks), but Reichert is definitely a serious candidate. He might be helped by the fact that the Washington legislature is no longer winnable for the GOP -- the state Senate remained competitive until there were huge losses in 2018, so now to check the generally Democratic state government Washington voters would need to elect a Republican Governor.

Republicans either solely or in coalition with Conservadems controlled the Washington state Senate from 2012 until a special election in 2017, which is kind of forgotten now, and between 2014 and 2018 Republicans were consistently within a few seats -- at the closest pass down just 50-48 -- from controlling the Washington state House.

I remember seeing him on a German TV documentary about the so-called "Green River Killer" a few years ago and thought "wait a minute, I've heard of this guy before".

Dave Reichert was actually a major impediment to catching the Green River Killer. He had tunnel vision on somebody else and this delayed catching the Green River Killer and allowed Gary Ridgway to kill several more people.

I have no idea why Reichert's horrible policing is actually celebrated.

[Xing]

I'm quite skeptical Reichert would actually pull this off, though I would expect a closer race than usual (more like a 5-7 point win for the Democrats instead of a double digit win.) He'll retain a fair amount of appeal in his old district in particular, but I think Ferguson would have to make several blunders to actually blow this race.

[Dave Hedgehog]

I'm quite skeptical Reichert would actually pull this off, though I would expect a closer race than usual (more like a 5-7 point win for the Democrats instead of a double digit win.) He'll retain a fair amount of appeal in his old district in particular, but I think Ferguson would have to make several blunders to actually blow this race.

Yep I can see this being quite similar to MS-GOV last year, strong candidate from the opposing party makes the race competitive but the last few points prove too much of a hurdle to clear. Trump on the ballot isn't going to help Reichert here either. D+5-7 sounds believable.

[GALeftist]

lol ok