Damn it, Virginia is a "Lean Dem" state in 2024, not solid. Get it right.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

I think Likely D is fair - it's not quite solid, but there's not enough evidence to put it as Lean

While I def agree the elections in VA since 2020 have ranged from meh to terrible to for Dems, Virginia is always a State where Democrats seem to struggle in off years, in part due to factors like down ballot lag, low black turnout, and a reasonably competent state Republican Party.

Some of these factors like low black turnout should be at least partially fixed just by nature of being a Pres year, and others that competent state Republican Party won't matter if Trump himself is too problematic.

I would also remind even in 2017 which was considered a very good environment for Dems, statewide Dems only did marginally better than Clinton in VA and Biden's 2020 margin ended up being a far more robust 10 point victory.

Biden should be fine in VA in 2024.

I don't think 2022 counts as in meh-to-terrible. Sure Dems lost VA-02 but losing a Biden +2, Youngkin +10, seat by 3 is not really bad at all. VA in 2022 overall suggests about Dems by 4-5 in a national environment that was very slightly lean R, which is right about what you'd expect Dems to do in VA in a year where the GOP barely carried the popular vote nationally.

It looks like Trump will barely carry the popular vote nationally given polling.

[jamestroll]

My sources in Virginia continue to tell me that the state will be extremely close and that more likely to vote for Drumpf compared to Michigan and Wisconsin.

Color me skeptical on that proclamation though. I believe Drumpf winning Virginia would just be icing on the cake on a relatively large victory.  And I would not expect the 2025 or 2026 elections to go very well for The GOP in VA should Drumpf win.

But the bottom line is.. all indications point to Virginia being very close and Kaine outperforming Biden by a wide margin. Though not by a double digit margin like these "polls" suggest.

At the time in Virginia.. in 2016.. I do believe a head on race, no kaine as vp (made a 1% difference), and no pussygate.. Drumpf would have carried Virginia.

I still think Biden 50% to Drumpf 46% in Virginia. Kaine 55% to 44%.

This is with my expectation that Drumpf wins the NPV by 1%.

[wnwnwn]

9 feel like VA likes establishent candidates. That's why it was so R between 1952 and 2004 and why it´s D right now.

[jamestroll]

9 feel like VA likes establishent candidates. That's why it was so R between 1952 and 2004 and why it´s D right now.

Virginia used to be a legit conservative state. It is not now...

but everyone I knew from Nova claims that Nova will give youngkin numbers to Trump this time around.

Still better than Obama did in 2012 though.

[jamestroll]

Like I could see ..


Fairfax 67 Biden, 28 Drumpf
Prince William County 54 Biden 44 Drumpf
Loudoun 57 Biden, 42 Drumpf

rather easily.
 
The state would essentially be tied at that point.

[SnowLabrador]

This guy gets it.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I’m willing to bet real money VA votes for Biden by at least 5% margin in 2024. If any of you “Virginia is competitive” people want to put your money where your mouth is I’m all ears.

I could see PWC perhaps swing towards Trump a bit but London and especially Fairfax seem less likely, especially after Trump’s terrible primary showing in Fairfax.

NoVa is one of the few regions of the US to very consistently shift left cycle after cycle and I don’t see that changing with Trump in 2024, especially because many NoVa residents work for the government or something adjacent. Like even in 2012 NoVa barely swing towards Romney despite most suburbs of a similar demographic profile (high income-high education) having pretty significant swings towards Romney.

If Biden has problems with the state it’ll come through doing poorly in more rural areas, poor black turnout, and the Norfolk - VA Beach area.

[jamestroll]

This guy gets it.

My guess is that Drumpf wins the popular vote.. by 1 or 2 maybe

but yes a reverse hillary is coming .. I could easily Drumpf losing MI/WI/PA/NV/AZ by VERY thin margins.. losing VA by a little Bit.. , while way over performing in the south.

But this all hinges on a theorY i have that Drumpf has to dominate the Texas vote. I can see arguments for a VERY close Texas or just a 2012-lite result in texas for Drumpf.


The MUSLIM and Gaza sympathetic vote in VA is more prominent than VA for what its Worth.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NC usually vote with VA I won't be surprised by the fact that NC Gov is so close it votes with VA this time. The bellwether is Maricopa Rs lost it in 2018/20/22 and Gallego is ahead. So, I won't count on those AZ/NV polls being accurate having Trump up 6


That's why anyone counting out Biden are silly he has beaten Rs Everytime and we know FL isn't complete we are targeting TX. There are always surprise states each Eday Cycle don't be surprised Biden wins TX and NC with Trump insurrection

Stop believing in Mark Penn Harris X he is no Biden friend he is No Party Labels


Remember 2020 AZ and GA were the surprise states and 22 WI S Surprise us with Johnson winning but Evers won anyways I would bet with J6 TX and NC can be the surprise

[EastwoodS]

Va is like the Democrats Missouri at this point

[Dan the Roman]

I think Virginia is very likely to safe D. It could go Republican, but in that scenario, every single swing state has done so, and its moot.

However, I think there is evidence that Biden's 10% 2020 margin was an outlier and that its generic margin is closer to 5% than double-digits. I base that not just on the 2021 statewide elections, but also the 2022 congressional vote, and the 2023 legislative elections.

This goes with my view that the group that will swing the most to Trump is the small group of conservative(not moderate) anti-Trump Republicans who lent Biden their votes in 2020 - once. This group has more or less disagreed with almost every single thing the Democratic party has done since 2021 - remote schools, the fights over "parental rights"*, student debt relief, now the flip-flop on Israel, Afghanistan - and the only real place for Biden to go with them post January 20th was down.

They can't swing the state of Virginia and aren't that important anywhere else, but NVA probably has one of the largest concentrations of this group in the country, and that has shown up in the consistent GOP "dead cat" bounce in VA-10.

So I wouldn't be surprised in a 48-46% Biden national popular vote victory(which is what I expect atm) for Biden to win Virginia 51%-45%. And if Trump/Biden are tied at the moment in PV, a 4% Biden lead is almost exactly what I would expect in Virginia.

[heatcharger]

People are starting to see what’s happening. Beautiful.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

The only thing I care about Virginia is whether the margin is closer to mid-single digits or if its double digits again. I seriously doubt Trump can win it, although I do believe he improves by a few points. Even if he were to some how capture it the election is safely in his column anyway so it doesn't matter.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

I agree with Virginia Lean D and all other indicators also point to a rather narrow / mild unconvincing win for Biden here, D+2 to D+4 or something. But I do think this isn't something we will uniquely observe in Virginia. If Virginia ends up being this close - which I believe - make no mistake of it, Trump will win the whole election. I don't believe it'll be a tipping point state or whatsoever at all. I just think VA will end up close because Biden isn't doing well in large parts of the nation. That's also why we see the PV shift or why the state polls in what most people consider purple states are favouring Trump at this moment. It's because Trump has the advantage at this point.

[jamestroll]

People are starting to see what’s happening. Beautiful.

I still think it is going to be the only former confederate state to be carried by Joe Biden..

the only other victories in the South for Democrats will be Tim Kaine's wider than Biden's victory for Senate and possibly North Carolina Governor. Otherwise the south is going to be a bloodbath for Democrats... all while Colorado in the west is called for Biden at poll closing.

But the so-called pro gaza vote is more notable in VA than MI if anything. But that is not the main factor.

I am only genuinely confused on Texas. I do not expect Mexican voters to swing much right if at all.. I could see Texas being shockingly close... or just becoming a major blood bath for Democrats handlign handing the PV.