Damn it, Virginia is a "Lean Dem" state in 2024, not solid. Get it right.

[jamestroll]

The results were absolutely good for Democrats. Regaining the House of Delegates under a Democratic president was HUGE. I CONCEDE this is not like the 2000s Virginia.

But still: HOW COME NO ONE IS MENTIONING THAT THE VA SENATE MARGIN FOR DEMOCRATS  WENT DOWN BY ONE.  It really did! VPAP.org is not lying.

Drumpf completely ignored Virginia in 2020.. and I still feel like if he didn't pull out and Kaine was not on the ticket in 2016 (which made like a 1% difference perhaps), he could have won it very narrowly.

The GOP is probably not going to totally concede Virginia in 2024. Though I think Kaine is basically safe and will outrun Biden.

My beautiful latino boyfriend with brown skin, brown eyes, and black hair and LIVES in Alexandria totally agrees with me.

I do believe it is a relatively polarized state in that it is very difficult for Democrats to be blown out there now adays.

There are still people who are saying VA is a solid blue state all over different platforms. It is just not true and completely.

Overall, irrespective of 2024 results with DRUMPF, Pennsylvania and Michigan Are. More. Democratic. Than. VA.

There were vote misallocations (and I am ING TIRED OF HEARING ABOUT THOSE "Biden +27 seats" that the GOP almost won. Completely False take)... but in Colorado Democrats were able to win every Biden district and even some Drumpf 2016 districts.  Democrats are struggling to win any close Biden seat in Virginia, even if they clearly would have if drumpf was still in office.

In Colorado, a Republican was defeated for Colorado Springs mayor. We can't even beat an incumbent Sheriff in PWC and the DA race was close and were totally blown out in most Loudoun County races on the local level.

I often believed people online both overestimated Virginia's blue lean, and Nova being "conservative". It absolutely has a more liberal feel than other suburbia I lived in, but I could tell about a 1/3 of it was quite conservative and elitist even if liberals are a very clear majority. But we are limited of the margins we can get out of there. 65 in Fairfax, 57 in Loudoun, and upper 50s in PWC are about as far as we can realistically go consistent. Still better than Obama.

But there is not near as much migration in and out of Virginia compared to Colorado which is seeing more left leaning people move in and more right leaning people move outwhich has been conceded by much of the Colorado GOP.

In terms of migration patterns, most right leaners who move to the area are generally going to self sort into the Virginia side. They are not enough to flip any Nova counties, but they are increasing moving to VA as a whole.

Colorado is more likely to attract Democratic professionals.. more culturally liberal and more outdoorsy (despite Virginia being quite good for the outdoors).

Even on issues.. I do not see how the hell Democrats can get more than 57% of the vote for marijuana or abortion in Virginia. Where are these voters supposed to be? They do not exist! In Colorado, it would be lopsided well over 60%.

Virginia has the same problem North Carolina does with rural areas.. a lot of room left for the GOP to grow there. North Carolina just does not have a Nova and now a Richmond really.

With the black vote shifting a bit right, the black vote having turn out problems, the south side districts in Virginia will be complete headaches.

[Person Man]

Virginia is probably as likely to flip as Florida, Texas, Ohio, Maine, or Minnesota is. It would have to be 1988 mk2 but in terms of consequences, more like 1896 or 1920 v2.
Colorado is probably as likely to flip as Missouri or Iowa is.  It would have to be the strongest right-wing showing in modern history. Is it possible? Yes. The Democrat might still win as many EVs as McCain or Dole did but it would probably have bigger consequences than when McGovern and Mondale only won 1 state.

[Sir Mohamed]

Nah

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Virginia is probably as likely to flip as Florida, Texas, Ohio, Maine, or Minnesota is. It would have to be 1988 mk2 but in terms of consequences, more like 1896 or 1920 v2.
Colorado is probably as likely to flip as Missouri or Iowa is.  It would have to be the strongest right-wing showing in modern history. Is it possible? Yes. The Democrat might still win as many EVs as McCain or Dole did but it would probably have bigger consequences than when McGovern and Mondale only won 1 state.

I don't think Minnesota belongs in the same category as the other 4. It's not winnable for Trump or DeSantis but it would be for one of the others. Same with Virginia.

[Old Man Willow]

Trump is not coming anywhere near winning VA. These takes are getting increasingly unhinged.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Trump is not coming anywhere near winning VA. These takes are getting increasingly unhinged.

Well yes, because Trump is incapable of winning the type of margin nationally that would be required for him to win Virginia. Someone like Haley would crush Biden(And yes, she wouldn't win by 11 points or whatever the polls are showing her doing now but she would win the PV and the EC comfortably.)

[jamestroll]

I actually can not wait until blacks vote like 25% for the GOP! My dream of red Virginia will be fairly consistent!

WHITES in VA are more conservative than like Michigan.

But I am telling YALL the truth.. Virginia did not feel that MUCH more liberal issue by issue compared to MISSOURI.

VA is going to be like Biden by 5 in 2024.

Reason why I DREAM of a GOP Virginia is because it feels conservative. VERY conservative vibes outside of Nova and Charlottesville LOL

[Person Man]

I actually can not wait until blacks vote like 25% for the GOP! My dream of red Virginia will be fairly consistent!

WHITES in VA are more conservative than like Michigan.

But I am telling YALL the truth.. Virginia did not feel that MUCH more liberal issue by issue compared to MISSOURI.

VA is going to be like Biden by 5 in 2024.

Which makes since if Trump wins.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Trump is not coming anywhere near winning VA. These takes are getting increasingly unhinged.

Well yes, because Trump is incapable of winning the type of margin nationally that would be required for him to win Virginia. Someone like Haley would crush Biden(And yes, she wouldn't win by 11 points or whatever the polls are showing her doing now but she would win the PV and the EC comfortably.)

I doubt Haley wins VA either. That state is gone for the Republicans for the foreseeable future.

[jamestroll]

Trump is not coming anywhere near winning VA. These takes are getting increasingly unhinged.

Well yes, because Trump is incapable of winning the type of margin nationally that would be required for him to win Virginia. Someone like Haley would crush Biden(And yes, she wouldn't win by 11 points or whatever the polls are showing her doing now but she would win the PV and the EC comfortably.)

I doubt Haley wins VA either. That state is gone for the Republicans for the foreseeable future.

Haley is just polling well.. because she is not Drumpf or Biden.

She wouldn't do well on the national stage during a campaign.

[jamestroll]

I am not counting out PA or MI voting to the left of VA in 2024. But I am not predicting it.

With DRUMPF out of the picture though.. yeah its likely in 2028.

[Pres Mike]

Against Trump, Virginia is a solid state. They hate MAGA

[DrScholl]

The problem with your theory is that off years under a Democratic President used to be very good for the GOP. Democrats have solved many of their off year turnout problems despite not gaining everything they could have. They have a much higher ceiling and floor in presidential elections. If Democrats managed to flip the House of Delegates then it's safe to say that Virginia is secure in the presidential election.

[Respect and Compassion]

I expect that Biden+5 in Virginia next year is more likely than Biden+10.11% (the 2020 result)

[jamestroll]

I expect that Biden+5 in Virginia next year is more likely than Biden+10.11% (the 2020 result)

I have made pretty ing clear that  I believe Biden gets VA in 2024.

I just don't think its a solid blue state.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Biden will easily win it, but I think the margin narrows quite a bit from 2020. Probably +7 or so. Hung Cao will give Tim Kaine a tough race, but I expect Kaine to win by 4-5.

[pbrower2a]

Virginia takes national security seriously. Trump has been a catastrophically-bad match for Virginia on this issue. Obama won Virginia in 2008 on economic distress, but proved himself friendly to the Armed Forces and the intelligence services.  Trump? Well....

[Progressive Pessimist]

Biden's floor is probably winning by about nine points. That's safe D enough for me.

[Mr. Smith]

I actually can not wait until blacks vote like 25% for the GOP! My dream of red Virginia will be fairly consistent!

WHITES in VA are more conservative than like Michigan.

But I am telling YALL the truth.. Virginia did not feel that MUCH more liberal issue by issue compared to MISSOURI.

VA is going to be like Biden by 5 in 2024.

Reason why I DREAM of a GOP Virginia is because it feels conservative. VERY conservative vibes outside of Nova and Charlottesville LOL

Stop f&*king with Lexington and Radford dude. P.S. even Lynchburg is moving left. I used to live there and visited again not so long ago, it radically changed in atmosphere, much more Asheville, NC than Bristol, TN

[Vice President Christian Man]

I have Biden winning by a lean margin in my prediction (so between 5-9 points), but Trump getting within 5 points would be a good performance for them. Youngkin's win was as a combination of him focusing on the bread & butter issues, Covid backlash, and distancing while not alienating Trump supporters. Obviously Trump is not taking this example and is unlikely to win back many of the Biden-Youngkin voters that made the governors victory possible.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think Likely D is fair - it's not quite solid, but there's not enough evidence to put it as Lean

While I def agree the elections in VA since 2020 have ranged from meh to terrible to for Dems, Virginia is always a State where Democrats seem to struggle in off years, in part due to factors like down ballot lag, low black turnout, and a reasonably competent state Republican Party.

Some of these factors like low black turnout should be at least partially fixed just by nature of being a Pres year, and others that competent state Republican Party won't matter if Trump himself is too problematic.

I would also remind even in 2017 which was considered a very good environment for Dems, statewide Dems only did marginally better than Clinton in VA and Biden's 2020 margin ended up being a far more robust 10 point victory.

Biden should be fine in VA in 2024.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I actually can not wait until blacks vote like 25% for the GOP! My dream of red Virginia will be fairly consistent!

WHITES in VA are more conservative than like Michigan.

But I am telling YALL the truth.. Virginia did not feel that MUCH more liberal issue by issue compared to MISSOURI.

VA is going to be like Biden by 5 in 2024.

Reason why I DREAM of a GOP Virginia is because it feels conservative. VERY conservative vibes outside of Nova and Charlottesville LOL

If this isn't trolling, i just feel sorry for you.

Firstly, while it's very possible and even probable Trump improves with the black vote, 25% is an unrealistic goal, and even if Trump hit it it'd only shift VA ~ 1.5 points right from 2020 all else being equal

Rural VA whites may be more conservative than MI, but you also have a lot of liberal whites in NOVA, Charlotte, Richmond, ect

"Conservative vibes" don't mean much, and Virginia minus Richmond, Henrico, Chesterfield, Norfolk, Portsmouth, Hampton, Newport News, Virginia Beach, and Chesapeake still voted for Biden by over 5, so NoVa + Charlottesville can still pretty easily outvote the rest of the state.

I think Biden carries VA by a simillar margin to 2020, perhaps even expanding to Biden + 12 or smtg.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

I have Biden winning by a lean margin in my prediction (so between 5-9 points), but Trump getting within 5 points would be a good performance for them. Youngkin's win was as a combination of him focusing on the bread & butter issues, Covid backlash, and distancing while not alienating Trump supporters. Obviously Trump is not taking this example and is unlikely to win back many of the Biden-Youngkin voters that made the governors victory possible.

Trump could do better with minorities than Youngkin though. I have Trump only losing by 4-5 points, with only the Richmond suburbs continuing to shift left.

[DS0816]

…

Colorado and Virginia—which have carried the same in all U.S. presidential elections, with exception in 1992, since 1948—are, as an estimate, the Nos. 15 and 16 best states for Democrats.

Indiana and Missouri—which started voting alike in 2012—are, as an estimate, the Nos. 15 and 16 best states for Republicans.

This nation has not had a presidential election see a winner carry more than 32 states since after the 1980s. Unless you want to predict the next few elections will break this pattern, and that winning Republicans and winning Democrats will carry around 40 states, these states are more than “Lean” with their party alignments.

[The Mikado]

I think Likely D is fair - it's not quite solid, but there's not enough evidence to put it as Lean

While I def agree the elections in VA since 2020 have ranged from meh to terrible to for Dems, Virginia is always a State where Democrats seem to struggle in off years, in part due to factors like down ballot lag, low black turnout, and a reasonably competent state Republican Party.

Some of these factors like low black turnout should be at least partially fixed just by nature of being a Pres year, and others that competent state Republican Party won't matter if Trump himself is too problematic.

I would also remind even in 2017 which was considered a very good environment for Dems, statewide Dems only did marginally better than Clinton in VA and Biden's 2020 margin ended up being a far more robust 10 point victory.

Biden should be fine in VA in 2024.

I don't think 2022 counts as in meh-to-terrible. Sure Dems lost VA-02 but losing a Biden +2, Youngkin +10, seat by 3 is not really bad at all. VA in 2022 overall suggests about Dems by 4-5 in a national environment that was very slightly lean R, which is right about what you'd expect Dems to do in VA in a year where the GOP barely carried the popular vote nationally.