My 2028 guesses after Biden and Trump

[Sir Mohamed]

Do you agree that these are the most likely results for 2028? Each after a Biden or Trump victory in 2024; assuming they serve out the full term.


2028 after a 2nd Biden term



✓ Senator J.D. Vance (R-OH)/Former Governor Brian Kemp (R-GA): 301 EVs.; 49.6%
Vice President Kamala Harris (D-CA)/Former Governor Andy Beshear (D-KY): 237 EVs.; 47.9%


2028 after a 2nd non-consecutive Trump term



✓ Governor Wes Moore (D-MD)/Former Governor Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI): 359 EVs.; 52.2%
Vice President Kristi Noem (R-SD)/Representative Byron Donalds (R-FL): 179 EVs.; 46.2%

[MABA 2020]

I could see the first happening, not sure about the second

[2016]

Neither J. D. Vance nor Kristi Noem will ever become the Republican Nominee for President. If Trump loses in 2024 MAGA is finished. Also Vance's Senate Seat is up in 2028 and you can't run for POTUS & Senate simultanously in Ohio.

[Sir Mohamed]

Neither J. D. Vance nor Kristi Noem will ever become the Republican Nominee for President. If Trump loses in 2024 MAGA is finished. Also Vance's Senate Seat is up in 2028 and you can't run for POTUS & Senate simultanously in Ohio.

No offense, I think it's (unfortunately) wishful thinking on your part that MAGA is finished after another loss in 2024. First off, Trump won't concede defeat next time either. He will yet again claim the election was rigged and his supporters will eat it up. Second of all, the GOP has repeatedly shown that they're just utterly incapable of learning from election losses. They keep running the same bad candidates and same unpopular policies and never admit the need to adjust their attitude. Especially Mr. Trump, who never takes resonsibility for anything.

That said, I wouldn't be surprised for Trump to run in 2028 again after a 2024 defeat, unless his health doesn't permit it or he's literally behind bars/in house arrest.

MAGA is the pulse of the party and the GOP as a standard conservative party is finished and has been for at least a decade.

[Agonized-Statism]

It's pretty much a question of whether or not a surviving 82 year old Trump can keep the momentum going after two consecutive losses. If not, because the pre-Trump GOP isn't coming back, who rebrands MAGA? That may well be Hawley. He's a political chameleon who has his finger on the pulse of conservatism. He knows when to play up the communitarian national populist angle- his recent book Manhood: The Masculine Virtues America Needs to me demonstrates an understanding that working class men, including the young and those of color, are a viable path forward for Republicans- and when to outdo Democrats on their neo-Axis of Evil bs- recall the Hong Kong independence chest-beating in 2019, before other MAGA Republicans got the memo about hawkishness being in vogue again. Kind of Nixonian in that sense. Atlas underestimates him.

[Bush did 311]

1st map is correct if Republicans find a way to reshape their image a bit. MAGA is going nowhere even after another Trump loss. It's the future of the party. However they could moderate MAGA a bit and package it for the American electorate in 2028 and not the German electorate in 1932.

2nd map is extremely optimistic about elections still being a thing but if somehow they are then probably, assuming Democrats put forward someone more economically populist to recapture the hispanic vote.

[Tekken_Guy]

2nd map is extremely optimistic about elections still being a thing

That statement is extremely pessimistic about elections still being a thing. For the last time Trump does not have the power to transform elections into Putin-like farces even if he wanted to. He can't change the constitution and and the idea that congress, state governments, and the courts are going to rubber stamp those ideas is laughable.

[Bush did 311]

2nd map is extremely optimistic about elections still being a thing

That statement is extremely pessimistic about elections still being a thing. For the last time Trump does not have the power to transform elections into Putin-like farces even if he wanted to. He can't change the constitution and and the idea that congress, state governments, and the courts are going to rubber stamp those ideas is laughable.

The plan to do exactly that is right there on the Heritage Foundation's website. They're not shy about it either. We are entering a "post-Constitutionalist" era where words in laws can mean whatever you want them to mean now, so long as you are the one currently in power enforcing them.

[Tekken_Guy]

2nd map is extremely optimistic about elections still being a thing

That statement is extremely pessimistic about elections still being a thing. For the last time Trump does not have the power to transform elections into Putin-like farces even if he wanted to. He can't change the constitution and and the idea that congress, state governments, and the courts are going to rubber stamp those ideas is laughable.

The plan to do exactly that is right there on the Heritage Foundation's website. They're not shy about it either. We are entering a "post-Constitutionalist" era where words in laws can mean whatever you want them to mean now, so long as you are the one currently in power enforcing them.

Not over elections.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

[Devils30]

2nd map is extremely optimistic about elections still being a thing

That statement is extremely pessimistic about elections still being a thing. For the last time Trump does not have the power to transform elections into Putin-like farces even if he wanted to. He can't change the constitution and and the idea that congress, state governments, and the courts are going to rubber stamp those ideas is laughable.

The MAGA message might be very appealing with someone other than Trump. And once the GOP wins big and fairly, their anti-democracy stuff might stop quickly.

[dw93]

I agree that whichever party wins the White House in 2024 loses in 2028, and that's whether Biden or Trump (whomever wins) finishes out the term or not. I doubt Harris as an incumbent would be strong enough to fend off even a lackluster candidate and any VP in a Trump second term will have all of his negatives without the cult following and showmanship.