Emerson NH: Ayotte +3

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/new-hampshire-2024-haley-surges-to-second-place-while-trump-maintains-lead/

Ayotte (R): 43
Craig (D): 40

[Tekken_Guy]

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/new-hampshire-2024-haley-surges-to-second-place-while-trump-maintains-lead/

Ayotte (R): 43
Craig (D): 40

You forgot the Cinde Warmington numbers. That's Ayotte+7 BTW.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I had this Safe R but Craig will win

[wbrocks67]

Their last poll in August had Ayotte +9, 46-37.

Emersons messiness notwithstanding, it was always likely that a lot of it is due to name rec, and still likely is.

[Spectator]

Their last poll in August had Ayotte +9, 46-37.

Emersons messiness notwithstanding, it was always likely that a lot of it is due to name rec, and still likely is.

I wouldn’t rule out an Ayotte victory. It’ll be closer than the presidential race in the state for sure. The Manchester mayoral election does not reflect well on Joyce Craig’s tenure there.

[free my dawg]

Both of y'all are right - the width of Ayotte's advantage is name recog but she's not someone to count out. The backlash in Manchester is very real and if she's smart she'll seize on it. That's a legitimate path to victory, especially considering NH is friendlier to smiley Nice Person FF conservatives like her.

Considering we're seeing Rubio-tier robotics about "muh Massachusetts" coming from her I have some doubts but there's plenty of campaign left.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ayotte isnt winning being up 3 in NH

[free my dawg]

Ayotte isnt winning being up 3 in NH

Never mind we're so back

[2016]

Both of y'all are right - the width of Ayotte's advantage is name recog but she's not someone to count out. The backlash in Manchester is very real and if she's smart she'll seize on it. That's a legitimate path to victory, especially considering NH is friendlier to smiley Nice Person FF conservatives like her.

Considering we're seeing Rubio-tier robotics about "muh Massachusetts" coming from her I have some doubts but there's plenty of campaign left.

Ayotte would be a fantastic Governor & Replacement for Sununu, maybe even an Upgrade to him. I was sad when Ayotte lost to Hassan in 2016.

[Red Wall]

Ayotte and Trump will win

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Their last poll in August had Ayotte +9, 46-37.

Emersons messiness notwithstanding, it was always likely that a lot of it is due to name rec, and still likely is.

I wouldn’t rule out an Ayotte victory. It’ll be closer than the presidential race in the state for sure. The Manchester mayoral election does not reflect well on Joyce Craig’s tenure there.

And Ayotte’s Senate loss doesn’t reflect well on her tenure there.

[DaleCooper]

Their last poll in August had Ayotte +9, 46-37.

Emersons messiness notwithstanding, it was always likely that a lot of it is due to name rec, and still likely is.

I wouldn’t rule out an Ayotte victory. It’ll be closer than the presidential race in the state for sure. The Manchester mayoral election does not reflect well on Joyce Craig’s tenure there.

And Ayotte’s Senate loss doesn’t reflect well on her tenure there.

I don't know the state but my intuition is that Ayotte's Senate loss is the best thing that could've happened to her chances in this governor election, other than her resigning in 2016. She didn't have to endure the impossible game of being an anti-Trump Republican, which would've made her unelectable in a primary, and she also didn't have to tie herself to alcoholic or faith-healing SCOTUS judges which would permanently ruin her reputation on the left and center. She narrowly lost to Hassan and then just kind of disappeared.

[free my dawg]

I don't know the state but my intuition is that Ayotte's Senate loss is the best thing that could've happened to her chances in this governor election, other than her resigning in 2016. She didn't have to endure the impossible game of being an anti-Trump Republican, which would've made her unelectable in a primary, and she also didn't have to tie herself to alcoholic or faith-healing SCOTUS judges which would permanently ruin her reputation on the left and center. She narrowly lost to Hassan and then just kind of disappeared.

The problem with this was that she literally tied herself to Gorsuch despite her step out of the spotlight. She was a key part of his confirmation.

With the NHDP moving from single-issue anti-Trumpism to single-issue abortion, there's no way they don't seize on this.

[DaleCooper]

I don't know the state but my intuition is that Ayotte's Senate loss is the best thing that could've happened to her chances in this governor election, other than her resigning in 2016. She didn't have to endure the impossible game of being an anti-Trump Republican, which would've made her unelectable in a primary, and she also didn't have to tie herself to alcoholic or faith-healing SCOTUS judges which would permanently ruin her reputation on the left and center. She narrowly lost to Hassan and then just kind of disappeared.

The problem with this was that she literally tied herself to Gorsuch despite her step out of the spotlight. She was a key part of his confirmation.

With the NHDP moving from single-issue anti-Trumpism to single-issue abortion, there's no way they don't seize on this.

True, but better Gorsuch than Kavanaugh or Barrett. I'm not saying she's the perfect candidate, I was just saying that she'd probably be in much worse shape if she tried to navigate a second Senate term.

[free my dawg]

I don't know the state but my intuition is that Ayotte's Senate loss is the best thing that could've happened to her chances in this governor election, other than her resigning in 2016. She didn't have to endure the impossible game of being an anti-Trump Republican, which would've made her unelectable in a primary, and she also didn't have to tie herself to alcoholic or faith-healing SCOTUS judges which would permanently ruin her reputation on the left and center. She narrowly lost to Hassan and then just kind of disappeared.

The problem with this was that she literally tied herself to Gorsuch despite her step out of the spotlight. She was a key part of his confirmation.

With the NHDP moving from single-issue anti-Trumpism to single-issue abortion, there's no way they don't seize on this.

True, but better Gorsuch than Kavanaugh or Barrett. I'm not saying she's the perfect candidate, I was just saying that she'd probably be in much worse shape if she tried to navigate a second Senate term.

Not really. 5 years is a long time, Barrett and Kavanaugh have all but proven themselves to be impartial GOP justices, and all three of them voted yes on Dobbs.

[MT Treasurer]

Ayotte has always been very overrated by pundits and on this forum — she’s a generic conservative with no robust brand in a blue state and will need both a very favorable national environment (one in which Biden is the clear underdog) & a completely inept opponent/lousy messaging from the NHDP to stay competitive in this race, and even then I wouldn’t bet money on her winning.  

Even Sununu only won the open seat by two points in 2016. It’s just a very difficult state for Republicans to win, one that is increasingly out of reach even under the most favorable circumstances.

[ElectionAtlas]

New Poll: New Hampshire Governor by Emerson College on 2023-11-13

Summary: D: 43%, R: 40%, U: 17%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details