What would it take for California to flip Republican again?

[Samof94]

What would it take for the state of California to flip Republican at the Presidential election level again?

[wnwnwn]

It would take the combinación of this gactors:
1 A republican NPV win +4%
2 Rural hispanics trending hard republican
3 Urban hispanics trending republican
4 Suburbans trending republican
5 Asians trending hard republican
6 Low dem turnout on the Bay Area
7 Northwestern whites trending republican

[DS0816]

What would it take for the state of California to flip Republican at the Presidential election level again?

… Republican pickups, as well, with Illinois and New Jersey.

Since California first voted in 1852, it has carried the same as Illinois in all United States presidential election cycles with exceptions of 1880, 1912, 1916, and 1960.

Illinois and New Jersey have carried the same in all United States presidential election cycles, with exception of 1948, since 1892.

It would not just be California.

Look to Election 1992…and they all realigned that year to the Democrats with Democratic presidential pickup winner Bill Clinton.

[junior chįmp]

The same way the GOP converted white Southerners who voted 99% Dem to vote Republicans: using strict father morality to bind up minority voters social conservative values with their voting choices

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

A republican NPV win +4%

This is an unrealistically low benchmark, even with the kind of racial + ideological + industrial realignment needed to make this happen.

[oldtimer]

Same things that took Democrats to flip California in 1992:

A majority among minorities so large that it overwhelms the White Upper Class vote or a big economic crash in California's big revenue making sectors (today it's tech, back in 1992 it was oil and defence).

[ProgressiveModerate]

Assuming "normal" circumstances nationally:

At the state level, it might take another decade or two of anger against Democratic politicians in the state as the cost of living continues to rise to astronomical levels and quality of life decreases for most. Republicans capitalize on this and use it to connect with lower-income non-white voters who may traditionally vote D on the federal level. Republicans see their largest gains in working class parts of metro LA, and the Central Valley, and are narrowly able to flip the Governorship.

This of course assumes the problems just get worse and there is no light at the end of the tunnel, but depopulation as well as some recent housing bills could help make things better.

CA flipping federally would require a huge re-alignment. My guess would be the GOP continues to improve and maybe even outright win significant swaths of Asian and Hispanics voters, while lowering margins with Black voters. Race becomes way less of a determinant factor in how people vote in favor of things like education and culture. Republicans successfully appeal to a lot of the self-absorbed culture in many parts of CA. Combined with large improvements with non-white voters they are able to flip the state.