Unpopular Opinion: Trump/Trumpism is not a uniquely bad fit for most suburbs

[ProgressiveModerate]

A huge narrative, both in the media and on this forum is that Trump and Trumpism has caused a re-alignment that has pushed American suburbs left.

In this thread, I want to challenge that narrative.

The reality is that most "suburbs" (which is a very broad category) have been shifting left for at least the past 2 decades, it's just that in many cases the gains weren't tangible until the 2016-2022 era when a lot of "suburban" areas outright flipped from D at once.

Texas is a great example of a state full of these suburbs people love to talk about, especially in metro Dallas, Houston, Austin, and San Antonio. Below are swing maps of every Pres election since 2004:

2000 Pres --> 2004 Pres swing map:


2004 Pres --> 2008 Pres swing map:


2008 Pres --> 2012 Pres swing map:


2012 Pres --> 2016 Pres swing map:


2016 Pres --> 2020 Pres swing map:


As one can see, in all Pres elections except 2012, the vast majority of "suburban Texas" swung left by a notable magnitude. 2012 was an exception, perhaps in part due to the national environment swinging back to Republicans, and perhaps in part to Romney's unique appeal to these communities. Infact, if you "adjust for trends" in the 2008-->2012 swing map, the picture looks a bit different:



In most of the main suburbs people love to discuss, you'll find this shift where basically every cycle except maybe 2012, the community overall swinging left; oftentimes the swings pre-2016 were more dramatic than the 2012-2016 and 2016-2020 suburban swings we saw. Some more examples:

Fairfax County, VA:
2000: R + 1.4
2004: D + 7.3
2008: D+ 21.2
2012: D + 19.8
2016: D + 36.2
2020: D + 41.9

Chester County, PA:
2000: R + 9.6
2004: R + 4.5
2008: D + 9.2
2012: R + 0.4
2016: D + 9.2
2020: D + 17.0

Gwinnett County, GA:
2000: R + 31.6
2004: R + 32.3
2008: R + 10.2
2012: R + 9.4
2016: D + 5.7
2020: D + 18.3

Orange County, CA:
2000: R + 15.4
2004: R + 20.7
2008: R + 2.6
2012: R + 8.3
2016: D + 5.1
2020: D + 9.0

I could give many more examples.

Overall though, I don't believe Trump or Trumpism was a uniquely bad fit more most American suburbs, and that due to migration and demographic change they were going to shift left in simillar magnitude regardless. Trump/Trumpism is only a uniquely bad fit for very high education/very high-income suburbs which are overall a small minority of American "suburbs".

[windjammer]

Trump just accelerated existing trends. It would have happened anyway (Romney was suburbs republicans lastnstand lol)

[Smash255]

This is something that has been in place prior to Trump (going back to the 90's in some areas).  With that said, I do think a trend map as opposed to a swing map better illustrates how something is moving.   Keep in mind from 2004 to 2008 the national swing was almost 10 points in itself

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Trump is better for minority voters/white non-college voters but worse for college educated whites. Whether or not Trump is a good fit for the suburb depends on who lives in it.