When will we elect our First Woman President?

[Fwillb21]

Let me know what you all think.

[Alben Barkley]

Almost certainly between 2028 and 2040.

[dw93]

Biden will win re election next year and will be out by summer 2027, causing Harris to ascend to the Presidency. A Republican defeats President Harris in 2028, only to have a recession and even greater international turmoil break in his term, causing their defeat at the hands of a female Democratic nominee in 2032. Harris will be the first woman President, but America will elect its first female President in 2032.

[DS0816]

Let me know what you all think.

The Democrats, if they are lacking confidence in Joe Biden, could push for Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer. At this point, it may be too late for a change.

[progressive85]

I wouldn't be surprised if it's not for a while and I actually don't know if the first woman president is going to be popular at all.

There might be an initial boost in popularity, but if things start getting bad during the first term, there could be a very bad backlash against her.

I think it will be a woman that's elected to the office rather than a vice president that takes office, and it's more likely to be a governor.

[Mister Mets]

Very likely between 2028 and 2040.

I think there are better than even odds in 2028. Kamala Harris is the obvious Democratic frontrunner. Gretchen Whitmer seems like the most likely alternative. On the Republican side, it could easily be Nikki Haley going for the traditional next in line approach, or a female Trump running mate (And I think he's more likely than not to pick a woman, with Haley, Stefanik, Britt, Noem, Ernst and Huckabee-Sanders as possible choices.)

It's east to imagine how we elect a woman President in 2024. If Joe Biden has a health episode, Kamala Harris will be the Democratic nominee. And there's a chance Haley can win the Republican nomination, albeit a slim one. The odds here are probably at least a dice roll.

If Trump wins in 2024, it's possible that a man will win the Democratic party nomination for President and the White House in '28. If Biden wins reelection like most President, it's possible Republicans will nominate a dude in 2028 and that guy will win. Maybe it's one more go for Trump (God, I hope not.) Maybe he had a male running mate who could position himself as a favorite (Byron Douglas, Tim Scott, JD Vance, etc.) Maybe someone else wins the primary on issues that we don't talk about right now. But the odds aren't great on that one.

One weird question is whether we're in a period where Presidents are just less likely to win reelection. That would mean that there will be more opportunities for someone to be the first woman President.

[Medal506]

That’s not even possible to elect one before 2028

[Tekken_Guy]

Very likely between 2028 and 2040.

I think there are better than even odds in 2028. Kamala Harris is the obvious Democratic frontrunner. Gretchen Whitmer seems like the most likely alternative. On the Republican side, it could easily be Nikki Haley going for the traditional next in line approach, or a female Trump running mate (And I think he's more likely than not to pick a woman, with Haley, Stefanik, Britt, Noem, Ernst and Huckabee-Sanders as possible choices.)

It's east to imagine how we elect a woman President in 2024. If Joe Biden has a health episode, Kamala Harris will be the Democratic nominee. And there's a chance Haley can win the Republican nomination, albeit a slim one. The odds here are probably at least a dice roll.

If Trump wins in 2024, it's possible that a man will win the Democratic party nomination for President and the White House in '28. If Biden wins reelection like most President, it's possible Republicans will nominate a dude in 2028 and that guy will win. Maybe it's one more go for Trump (God, I hope not.) Maybe he had a male running mate who could position himself as a favorite (Byron Douglas, Tim Scott, JD Vance, etc.) Maybe someone else wins the primary on issues that we don't talk about right now. But the odds aren't great on that one.

One weird question is whether we're in a period where Presidents are just less likely to win reelection. That would mean that there will be more opportunities for someone to be the first woman President.

I think we can rule out Haley, Britt, and Ernst as Trump VP choices. None are particularly closely aligned with him or his wing of the party. But Noem, Stefanik, and Huckabee Sanders are all very plausible picks.