What do you think is the biggest myth about 2020?

[EJ24]

?

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Trump was on track to win without COVID. Likely a recession was going to start anyway given that the yield curve had inverted in August 2019. If anything, it gave him leeway to blame the recession on COVID. Also Biden wasn't the only candidate that would've beaten Trump, if anything his performance was underwhelming compared to expected in the environment.

[Alben Barkley]

Real tough contest between #2, #5, and #7.

Went with #5. Especially here on Atlas, certain posters pretending like Minnesota was in play was always amusing to me. Especially the ones who did it for REALLY dumb reasons like Kanye being on the ballot.

Trump was on track to win without COVID. Likely a recession was going to start anyway given that the yield curve had inverted in August 2019. If anything, it gave him leeway to blame the recession on COVID. Also Biden wasn't the only candidate that would've beaten Trump, if anything his performance was underwhelming compared to expected in the environment.

This makes no sense. You are arguing that Trump was on track to win without COVID, then in the next breath say his loss would have been WORSE without COVID. Therefore he clearly was NOT on track to win without COVID.

Also if you seriously want to believe Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren would have done better than Biden in an election in which Biden was drubbed in Florida over literal red scare tactics, be my guest. But it's just not realistic. Maybe Klobuchar could have done slightly better? Then again maybe not, people like her and Mayor Pete probably would have had worse turnout among minority voters than Obama's VP so even if they took back the blue wall in the Midwest, they probably wouldn't have won a state like Georgia.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Real tough contest between #2, #5, and #7.

Went with #5. Especially here on Atlas, certain posters pretending like Minnesota was in play was always amusing to me. Especially the ones who did it for REALLY dumb reasons like Kanye being on the ballot.

Trump was on track to win without COVID. Likely a recession was going to start anyway given that the yield curve had inverted in August 2019. If anything, it gave him leeway to blame the recession on COVID. Also Biden wasn't the only candidate that would've beaten Trump, if anything his performance was underwhelming compared to expected in the environment.

This makes no sense. You are arguing that Trump was on track to win without COVID, then in the next breath say his loss would have been WORSE without COVID. Therefore he clearly was NOT on track to win without COVID.

Also if you seriously want to believe Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren would have done better than Biden in an election in which Biden was drubbed in Florida over literal red scare tactics, be my guest. But it's just not realistic. Maybe Klobuchar could have done slightly better? Then again maybe not, people like her and Mayor Pete probably would have had worse turnout among minority voters than Obama's VP so even if they took back the blue wall in the Midwest, they probably wouldn't have won a state like Georgia.

I'm saying the notion that "Trump was on track to win without COVID" was a myth. Also, I believe the actual reason Biden was drubbed in Florida was opposition to COVID restrictions, which is a non-issue for 2024 (In 2020, Biden was probably the worst possible Democratic candidate for FL, given that he was a lockdown, basement Democrat, but in 2024 he might not be due to doing well with older whites). Florida passed a minimum wage 60-40+, with it passing by 40 points in Miami-Dade.

I believe Bloomberg and Kloubuchar would've both won by more. Warren would've lost, sure. Also I don't think you could do worse than Biden with minority voters. Harris herself would've surely done better.

[2016]

The biggest surprise was that Biden managed to win the Presidency without winning Florida, Ohio and to lesser extend North Carolina.

In fact the last Democrat to win the Presidency without Florida or Ohio was John F. Kennedy in 1960.

[darklordoftech]

Minnesota having been in play is by far the most absurd of all the options given.

[dw93]

Minnesota being in play out of the options listed as there is/was no merit to it whatsoever. The rest of the options, outside of option 7, had/have merit to them, and even in the case of option 7, there were candidates that would've done better than Biden, they just didn't run.

[Pres Mike]

Democrats in 2019: A recession is right around the corner and will doom Trump

Me: But there aren't any signs of a recession....

Democrats in 2019: nO wE nEvEr HaD gRoWtH tHiS lOnG

[gerritcole]

these are all true statements

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

If you're talking specifically about the presidential election and not downballot races, then BLM riots hurting Democrats. They were unfolding on Trump's watch and indicated a failure of his divisive leadership style.

[wnwnwn]

Maybe the idea that Arizona was winnable for democrats only thanks to Trump opinions on McCain.

[patzer]

Minnesota being in play out of the options listed as there is/was no merit to it whatsoever.

Prior to the election, all of the statewide polls in Minnesota had Biden winning by a roughly similar margin to his margin in Wisconsin- the margins in both states were virtually identical to each other. We know in hindsight that the polls were wrong but I'm not sure how people at the time could have known.

[Duke of York]

Maybe the idea that Arizona was winnable for democrats only thanks to Trump opinions on McCain.

Agreed. Arizona has been trending blue for awhile. Now that Maricopa County has flipped its possible the state becomes a blue state in the near future.

[Sumner 1868]

Options 2 and 5 are the only ones that are clear myths.

[sting in the rafters]

#5 and #7. Minnesota's unions are as strong as Nevada/Michigan's for GOTV and they aren't as dependent on Black turnout. Furthermore MN's high 3rd-party vote in 2016 implies a strong dislike of HRC more than anything else. #4 is half-true; above all the Ahmaud Arbery & George Floyd murders & subsequent violent crime wave were net neutral in energizing both sides.

[BlueSwan]

I am gonna comment on all of those just to have an excuse for not working (which I REALLY need to do, BTW).

Trump was on track to win before COVID
This has to be the biggest myth. Trump was doing terribly in the polls before COVID and he was deeply unpopular. If anything, I am of the opinion that COVID helped him bring the conspiratorially minded to the ballot boxes in 2020.

Bernie Sanders or some other democrat would have done better than Biden
Also a massive myth, especially if we are talking Bernie. I'm not saying that NO other democrat could possibly have outpaced Biden, but Biden was in a strong position to take on trump as a "generic D" that nobody could really fearmonger effectively against.

Democrats were hurt by their COVID response
This one is difficult. I actually think democrats WERE somewhat hurt by it, but republicans were in no position to benefit much from it, especially given Trumps bungled response.

Trump was hurt by the debates
Debates rarely matters much and they definitely didn't matter much in 2020.

Democrats were hurt by BLM riots
How do you seperate this from "abolish the police"? I do think that whole agenda hurt democrats, but not enough to lose the election to Trump.

The idea that Minnesota was ever in play
I didn't hear all that much about this in 2020. It was always clear that if Minnesota fell, then it would have been due to a big Trump win, which was never on the books.

The narrative that polls were widely inaccurate
By polls WERE terribly off in 2020. Much more off than they were in 2016. So this can't be a myth.

[Sir Mohamed]

The biggest surprise was that Biden managed to win the Presidency without winning Florida, Ohio and to lesser extend North Carolina.

In fact the last Democrat to win the Presidency without Florida or Ohio was John F. Kennedy in 1960.

There was basically no Dem ever that won all states Biden won on the same map (Johnson lost AZ and GA in 1964, FDR lost VT and ME in 1936).