The map today.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I think if held today the margins would look something like

TX: R +10
NC: R +8
GA: R +6
FL: R +6
AZ: R +4
PA: R +3
NV: R +2
WI: R +1
MI: R +1
MN: D +2
VA: D +4
NH: D +4

However, I expect AZ/NV/FL to shift left due to abortion referendums.

A big part of the potential impact of abortion referendums is getting a certain base to turn out.  However, in a presidential election, turnout will be high on both sides for the top of the ticket.

Maybe there will be a few low-propensity voters who turn out just for those, but I think we might be overestimating how many.  And I can't imagine that they will have dramatic "reverse coattails" to the presidential race.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

I think if held today the margins would look something like

TX: R +10
NC: R +8
GA: R +6
FL: R +6
AZ: R +4
PA: R +3
NV: R +2
WI: R +1
MI: R +1
MN: D +2
VA: D +4
NH: D +4

However, I expect AZ/NV/FL to shift left due to abortion referendums.

A big part of the potential impact of abortion referendums is getting a certain base to turn out.  However, in a presidential election, turnout will be high on both sides for the top of the ticket.

Maybe there will be a few low-propensity voters who turn out just for those, but I think we might be overestimating how many.  And I can't imagine that they will have dramatic "reverse coattails" to the presidential race.

I think it matters quite a lot in Florida, as there is a good chance Democrats would give up on the state otherwise. Now, there will likely be large money pouring in as Florida is the last state in the South with abortion past 6 weeks, and there is tons of abortion tourism there.

Also, I think there is some persuasion element when more ads are focused on abortion, rather than other states where ie economy might be the major focus.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I think if held today the margins would look something like

TX: R +10
NC: R +8
GA: R +6
FL: R +6
AZ: R +4
PA: R +3
NV: R +2
WI: R +1
MI: R +1
MN: D +2
VA: D +4
NH: D +4

However, I expect AZ/NV/FL to shift left due to abortion referendums.

A big part of the potential impact of abortion referendums is getting a certain base to turn out.  However, in a presidential election, turnout will be high on both sides for the top of the ticket.

Maybe there will be a few low-propensity voters who turn out just for those, but I think we might be overestimating how many.  And I can't imagine that they will have dramatic "reverse coattails" to the presidential race.

I think it matters quite a lot in Florida, as there is a good chance Democrats would give up on the state otherwise. Now, there will likely be large money pouring in as Florida is the last state in the South with abortion past 6 weeks, and there is tons of abortion tourism there.

Also, I think there is some persuasion element when more ads are focused on abortion, rather than other states where ie economy might be the major focus.

It also would be different from most other ones because Florida referendums require 60% to pass, and none of the previous ones (except California) have gotten that.

[pbrower2a]

Trump vindicated through non-conviction: blue, yellow, and green

Trump convicted: red only

... Latino voters, whether Mexican-American, Puerto Rican, or Cuban, hate criminality.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump vindicated through non-conviction: blue, yellow, and green

Trump convicted: red only

... Latino voters, whether Mexican-American, Puerto Rican, or Cuban, hate criminality.

The R thinking WI, MI and PA is amusing since we won KY and Emerson had it +1 Cameron after polling 303 states for Trump let's face it Emerson is an internal fir Trump

[Bush did 311]

It's a 303 map but OH and NC are vulnerable

NC yes, it could be.
OH is interesting. It is still possible that it could return to bellwether status some day.

I have no expectations that Biden will win NC but if it happened, I wouldn't be surprised. I put Trump's ceiling at +3R here, floor +1D.

Biden will hemorrhage more of eastern NC and I expect more of the black vote. However, suburbs and military towns will continue their shift in his favor, assuming Trump is the nominee....

[Tekken_Guy]

It's a 303 map but OH and NC are vulnerable

NC yes, it could be.
OH is interesting. It is still possible that it could return to bellwether status some day.

I have no expectations that Biden will win NC but if it happened, I wouldn't be surprised. I put Trump's ceiling at +3R here, floor +1D.

Biden will hemorrhage more of eastern NC and I expect more of the black vote. However, suburbs and military towns will continue their shift in his favor, assuming Trump is the nominee....

NC is a toss-up. I see no indication that Trump is favored to win it other than that he won it last time.

The areas trending R are much less populated than those trending D.

[heatcharger]

Latino voters, whether Mexican-American, Puerto Rican, or Cuban, hate criminality.

 

[EastwoodS]

I'm at  right now.

I think you are gonna be sorely sad when FL is like -+7 for Trump.
I gotta ask. Why do you hate the FL GOP so much. Why don’t you want the GOP to have a reliable big state. It’s like you have vendetta against them.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

I'm at  right now.

I think you are gonna be sorely sad when FL is like -+7 for Trump.
I gotta ask. Why do you hate the FL GOP so much. Why don’t you want the GOP to have a reliable big state. It’s like you have vendetta against them.

I think it could be +7 Trump, but then AZ is probably +5 Trump and GA is probably +8 Trump in this scenario.