The map today.

[°Leprechaun]

If Trump were to win MI and NV he wins, but if he loses either of them, going by this map, he loses. Things will change for the better or for the worse, but this is the current map.

[Redban]

Trump has 3.7% lead in the RCP average for AZ. Siena has him at +5%, Bloomberg has him at +4%. Roughly the same story for Nevada, except Siena has Trump +11%

You concede GA to Trump. But you put AZ and NV for Biden and declare conclusively “this is the current map” for some reason. I guess Trump also can’t win WI and PA too, for some unknown reason that OP  knows

[°Leprechaun]

Trump has 3.7% lead in the RCP average for AZ. Siena has him at +5%, Bloomberg has him at +4%. Roughly the same story for Nevada, except Siena has Trump +11%

You concede GA to Trump. But you put AZ and NV for Biden and declare conclusively “this is the current map” for some reason. I guess Trump also can’t win WI and PA too, for some unknown reason that OP  knows

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2024/polls.php?type=src&source_id=79

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Just a note MI polls are biased and so are GA polls

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

I'm at  right now.

[2016]

The Map today: Biden vs Trump


Will that hold after the important Trials starts next year? I honestly massivly doubt it.

[emailking]

I don't like these maps.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sen Del







303 map




Gov Del

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Trump is only up 8 in OH the map is the same 303 Map as in 20, Trump won OH in 2o by 8 and Iowa

Polls are trying to put Trump at 50 just because of his primary bounce and the mnth of Sept PPP polled WI, PA and MI already 48/44 Biden


Biden hasn't run any ruthless attack ads yet he will once the nomination is over saying that Trump is a Maga R not just touting his Obamacare

Kunce, Bussee, Stein, Slotkin and Gallego are gonna be stars in 24  highlights for Ds

While Rs will elect Ayotte and Justice

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I'm at  right now.

Lol Biden is up 2 in WI

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I'll be honest.  I haven't paid too much attention to polls yet (other than periodically seeing polls on Twitter showing Trump ahead).  But, I'm intrigued by most people having Georgia flipping relatively easily.  Is that based on 2022 results that had every Republican other than Walker easily win the state, vibes, or hard polling data?

[GAinDC]

I'll be honest.  I haven't paid too much attention to polls yet (other than periodically seeing polls on Twitter showing Trump ahead).  But, I'm intrigued by most people having Georgia flipping relatively easily.  Is that based on 2022 results that had every Republican other than Walker easily win the state, vibes, or hard polling data?

Bad polling and vibes

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a 303 map but OH and NC are vulnerable, waves Happen at end of 24 not 23 , we aren't winning 415 but if Brown wins OH FL, TX, MO can split votes

[°Leprechaun]

It's a 303 map but OH and NC are vulnerable

NC yes, it could be.
OH is interesting. It is still possible that it could return to bellwether status some day.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Brown wins in OH the GOP will lose more Sseats we can win TX, FL, MO S Seats as a Bellwether and Brown has been leading in every poll.


Right now Kunce and ALLRED are within 4 and no polling for FL but I can see a 340 not 415 map on Eday with 5 pt Biden win

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

I'll be honest.  I haven't paid too much attention to polls yet (other than periodically seeing polls on Twitter showing Trump ahead).  But, I'm intrigued by most people having Georgia flipping relatively easily.  Is that based on 2022 results that had every Republican other than Walker easily win the state, vibes, or hard polling data?

All 3. Hard polling data shows Trump up by almost as much as Kemp (and data in 2022 also showed Trump running pretty close to Kemp), and abortion should help Rs in Georgia.

[Old Man Willow]

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

I think if held today the margins would look something like

TX: R +10
NC: R +8
GA: R +6
FL: R +6
AZ: R +4
PA: R +3
NV: R +2
WI: R +1
MI: R +1
MN: D +2
VA: D +4
NH: D +4

However, I expect AZ/NV/FL to shift left due to abortion referendums.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol WI, AZ are D Lean Biden is up 2 in WI, EI isn't Iowa

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think if held today the margins would look something like

TX: R +10
NC: R +8
GA: R +6
FL: R +6
AZ: R +4
PA: R +3
NV: R +2
WI: R +1
MI: R +1
MN: D +2
VA: D +4
NH: D +4

However, I expect AZ/NV/FL to shift left due to abortion referendums.

.
No

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

People take polls literally and there are PPP and Marist polls that already had Biden ahead 48/44 in WI, PA and MI

Emerson has Laxalt winning by 5 final poll and he lost now they have Trunp up 7, it's 303 plus OH, NC like in22 an argument can be made that  Ryan, Barnes and Beasley lost during heights of IAN ESPECIALLY BARNES

[Tekken_Guy]

I don’t see any way Trump is losing Georgia if the rest of this map is happening.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Let me guess, Michigan isn't a Biden state because of Arabs?

As far as I'm concerned, Biden should win every state he did in 2020, with Wisconsin being the one I am actually most iffy about.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I don’t see any way Trump is losing Georgia if the rest of this map is happening.

Assuming Trump's Georgia trial starts before Election Day, and unless he's acquitted, I see no way that he wins the state.  Don't forget that unlike federal trials, Georgia state trials are televised, and I expect there will be nonstop attention on them here.  Seeing a candidate sitting in court on a felony charge is going to turn off a certain percentage of otherwise persuadable voters.  And if the trial finishes in time and he's convicted, Trump is toast.

[Tekken_Guy]

I don’t see any way Trump is losing Georgia if the rest of this map is happening.

Assuming Trump's Georgia trial starts before Election Day, and unless he's acquitted, I see no way that he wins the state.  Don't forget that unlike federal trials, Georgia state trials are televised, and I expect there will be nonstop attention on them here.  Seeing a candidate sitting in court on a felony charge is going to turn off a certain percentage of otherwise persuadable voters.  And if the trial finishes in time and he's convicted, Trump is toast.

It will also turn off persuadable voters in other states.