Could Tennessee elect its own Andy Beshear one day?

[Tekken_Guy]

Do you think Tennessee would be able to elect its own Andy Beshear-style Democrat one day?

[2016]

Do you think Tennessee would be able to elect its own Andy Beshear-style Democrat one day?

They already did that with former Governor Phil Bredesen. I don't see another "Bredesen" on the Horizon anytime soon.

[Tekken_Guy]

Do you think Tennessee would be able to elect its own Andy Beshear-style Democrat one day?

They already did that with former Governor Phil Bredesen. I don't see another "Bredesen" on the Horizon anytime soon.

Bredesen was their Steve, if anything.

[Alben Barkley]

Tennessee, while probably (and I hate to admit this) the most similar state to Kentucky, is also a little more "Southern" than Kentucky. A little more racially polarized, a little more religious, a little more rock-ribbed Republican in its Appalachian counties, a little more everything that benefits Republicans. This is probably why you still see some genuine ancestral Dems in Kentucky actually pulling the lever for Ds, but it hasn't really happened in recent years in Tennessee.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Tennessee elected a string of Andy Beshears at one time.  Not anymore. 

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Kentucky has a lot more recent ancestral Democratic tendencies than Tennessee does.  Tennessee is much more Southern culturally than Kentucky is.

The historical politics of the regions of Appalachia in the two states couldn't be more different.  And, there are a lot more suburban/exurban/dense rural counties netting the GOP a ton of votes than in Kentucky.  Even in the suburbs, the culture of Williamson County or the Germantown/Collierville areas is much more "suburban evangelical" than you'd find in Covington, the Bluegrass Region, or even Oldham County.

[MargieCat]

Not highly likely.

Odd numbered year gubernatorial elections can lead to results that are inconsistent with the states partisan lean.

Had Kentucky had it's Bevin vs. Beshear matchup back in 2018, Bevin would have won.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Some states are less likely to elect an opposite party governor than others. See KY vs TN or KS vs NE. Even in New England RI and Connecticut are less likely to pull the lever for even a good R compared to NH VT or ME.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

My impression of Tennessee is that Memphis as a city is much easier to be cast as the "villainous urban Democrats" role that Republicans are polarised against; in a way that isn't the same for, say, Louisville.

[Alben Barkley]

My impression of Tennessee is that Memphis as a city is much easier to be cast as the "villainous urban Democrats" role that Republicans are polarised against; in a way that isn't the same for, say, Louisville.

This is correct. Even though the rest of Kentucky does indeed hate Louisville, that has more to do with basketball than anything else lol

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

An important distinction is eastern Tennessee has been the most consistently Republican part of the country, while eastern Kentucky has a history of voting Democrat.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Not highly likely.

Odd numbered year gubernatorial elections can lead to results that are inconsistent with the states partisan lean.

Had Kentucky had it's Bevin vs. Beshear matchup back in 2018, Bevin would have won.

Bevin would have beaten Beshear in TN in 2019 as well given :

- TN is more conservative than KY

- TN is economically doing better than KY so his austerity measures wouldn’t be as unpopular

[Builder Refused]

Not highly likely.

Odd numbered year gubernatorial elections can lead to results that are inconsistent with the states partisan lean.

Had Kentucky had it's Bevin vs. Beshear matchup back in 2018, Bevin would have won.

I don’t really buy this argument. You’d have to assume that proportionally more people would vote straight ticket rather than swing or abstain from voting for Bevin for how horrible of a candidate he is

[Builder Refused]

Forgot Bevin wasn’t the candidate this time but still I disagree with counterfactuals on aesthetic principle, it’s gauche

[Progressive Pessimist]

I don't think Kentucky will ever even elect another Beshear.

[Spectator]

Absolutely not. I think the only chance you see a Democrat win a future statewide race in places like TN, KY, OK, NE, SC or UT in our lifetimes is if there’s a Roy Moore-type of situation.

[Rjjr77]

Do you think Tennessee would be able to elect its own Andy Beshear-style Democrat one day?

In the future probably not, the dem primary electorate is probably too liberal. Its the same reason why a Rhode Island GOP governor wont happen

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Not with Gloria Johnson but with Pierce he can win in a post Voting Rights environment

[Zedonathin2020]

No. Saying this as a Tennessee resident, it would take a miracle for a MANCHINE esque Democrat to win here, let alone a Beshear type

[Aurelius2]

No. Tennessee is wealthier and more ideologically conservative than Kentucky. It's also probably less "populist", whatever that means nowadays, and a bit more culturally Southern.

[At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder]

Tennessee seems just outside of the range of being penetrable by Democrats even in a perfect storm situation (barring a literal Roy Moore type candidate) just like Oklahoma. In addition to having all of the cultural and demographic factors being more friendly to Republicans than Kentucky, the TN GOP is more entrenched as a party of government in the state that at least tended to elect more of those business friendly moderate types who won while the state was more competitive while Matt Bevin was incompetent with the use of his trifecta (which was the first time the GOP held one ever in Kentucky) leading to grassroots resistance led by teachers unions to defeat him and elect Andy Beshear. Tennessee has already implemented a lot of the right wing fiscal agenda, and even if they do 2010s Kansas type stuff the GOP should still win off of demographics since even extreme overreach on social issues and civil rights violations won't risk knocking the Republicans out of power in Tennessee.

[Pres Mike]

No. Tennessee's suburbs are much more Republican and conservative than suburbs nationwide. I used to live in suburban Memphis. We are more racially polarized. White people vote like Mississippi.

Despite Tennessee's being one of the fastest growing states in the country, its mostly retirees and upper middle class families escaping higher tax states. Our growth is more like Florida than Georgia (young people moving to Atlanta)

Also important. Unlike Kentucky, we don't have any teacher unions.

An important distinction is eastern Tennessee has been the most consistently Republican part of the country, while eastern Kentucky has a history of voting Democrat.

East Tennessee is very dense. Lots of small towns. One of the most dense "rural" areas in the country.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Not highly likely.

Odd numbered year gubernatorial elections can lead to results that are inconsistent with the states partisan lean.

Had Kentucky had it's Bevin vs. Beshear matchup back in 2018, Bevin would have won.

Bevin would have beaten Beshear in TN in 2019 as well given :

- TN is more conservative than KY

- TN is economically doing better than KY so his austerity measures wouldn’t be as unpopular

Definitely disagree with the claim that TN is more conservative than KY, and I would argue that transporting the circumstances of KY-GOV 2019 to TN results in a slightly bigger Dem win. Remember that KY was last left of TN in Presidential Elections in 1988. Whatever disadvantages TN Dems would have had over KY Dems from slightly more conservative Whites would be overcome and more by the existence of a somewhat more robust Black population in TN.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Not at this point.  Beshear was elected because many rural counties in KY still retain their Democratic loyalties at the local level, and at the state level somewhat.  The rural counties in Middle Tennessee that were the core of Democratic strength have all gone to the GOP.  West Tennessee's local counties are almost all Republican at the local level.   The only way for Tennessee to become competitive for Democrats is for the size of the electorates in Nashville and Memphis to expand significantly.

[Alben Barkley]

Not highly likely.

Odd numbered year gubernatorial elections can lead to results that are inconsistent with the states partisan lean.

Had Kentucky had it's Bevin vs. Beshear matchup back in 2018, Bevin would have won.

Bevin would have beaten Beshear in TN in 2019 as well given :

- TN is more conservative than KY

- TN is economically doing better than KY so his austerity measures wouldn’t be as unpopular

Definitely disagree with the claim that TN is more conservative than KY, and I would argue that transporting the circumstances of KY-GOV 2019 to TN results in a slightly bigger Dem win. Remember that KY was last left of TN in Presidential Elections in 1988. Whatever disadvantages TN Dems would have had over KY Dems from slightly more conservative Whites would be overcome and more by the existence of a somewhat more robust Black population in TN.

Literally the only reason TN votes SLIGHTLY left of KY in presidential elections is that there are more blacks in the cities; TN whites are actually SIGNIFICANTLY more conservative than KY whites. In fact, the reason the states still vote pretty much the same in presidential elections is because the lower black population in KY is more or less offset by KY whites still voting to the left of TN whites.

You can't translate this to state elections like governor at all, though. Because in recent years TN whites have shown they are voting nearly as polarized in such elections as they do in presidential elections, while KY whites have shown a remarkable willingness to be more "elastic" and there still somehow are robust pockets of "ancestral Dems" in these elections. It's similar to how Joe Manchin was able to win in 2018 while Phil Bredesen wasn't; KY and WV are... unique states. Again, KY is probably more similar to TN overall, but TN also has a Deep South influence from MS/AL/GA that KY just doesn't have. This is why the racial polarization and religiosity is higher in TN. (By these definitions, TN clearly IS more conservative than KY; if KY whites voted the same but the black population in the state was increased to match TN's, KY would always vote to TN's LEFT.) It also doesn't help that Eastern TN is historically one of the most rock-ribbed Republican places on the planet, whereas that's not the case for KY/WV, especially post-New Deal.

TL;DR: The states vote similarly in presidential elections, and the fact that TN is usually slightly left of KY in those has to do with factors that don't affect gubernatorial elections at all, where an entirely different set of rules are at play.