California Gay Marriage 2024 County Prediction

[Fwillb21]

As some of you may know, California is having a ballot measure next November to codify marriage equality into their constitution, even though it has been legal since 2013 (also briefly legal in 2008 before Prop 8 passed). I thought I would make a prediction of how I think some of the most populous counties will vote on the measure. I would love to know whether or not you agree with my thoughts, so please sound off in the comments.

90+% Support
San Francisco City and County
Marin County
Alameda County (Oakland and Berkeley)

80-90% Support
Contra Costa County (East Bay Suburbs)
Napa County
San Mateo County (Silicon Valley)
Santa Barbara County
Santa Clara County (San Jose Area)
Santa Cruz County
Sonoma County
Yolo County (Home of UC Davis)

70-80% Support
LA County
Sacramento County
San Diego County
Ventura County

60-70% Support
Orange County
Riverside County
San Bernardino County
Solano County (Between Bay Area and Sacramento)

50-60% Support
El Dorado County (Sacramento Exurbs to Lake Tahoe)
Fresno County
Placer County (North Sacramento Suburbs)
San Joaquin County (Stockton)
Stanislaus County (Modesto)

50-60% Oppose
Kern County (Bakersfield)

As you can see, the overwhelming majority of Californians will likely support the measure, with the statewide result likely being upwards of 70 percent. The only areas that would likely oppose the measure would be the very rural northeastern part of the state as well as some areas in the Central Valley.

[bayareabay]

I live in Alameda County and disagree with your prediction that the vote will be over 90% Yes. Alameda County voted only 62% against Prop 8 in 2008 (much closer than SF/Marin where the vote was 75% against Prop . I would guess Alameda votes about 80% in favor of repealing Prop 8 while the margins in Marin and SF are 90% or more. I'm guessing the vote statewide will only be 65-70% in favor of repeal. The county votes will likely be very similar to Prop 1 (2022) for reproductive freedom. That Prop passed 67% statewide and no county voted +90% in favor. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_California_Proposition_1