When will Tennessee be a swing state

[Pres Mike]

Tennessee's population has exploded in the last 20 years. One of the fastest growing states. Especially the Nashville metro area. The state has a million more people since 2000. But the state has only moved rightward. Its now the largest deep red state in the country.

Georgia has 4 million more people since 2000. Arizona has 2 million more people. North Carolina has 2.5 million. Texas 10 million more since 2000! All states moved to the left with population growth.

My guess is the very low black turnout in Memphis. And unlike other growing states, Tennessee's growth comes more from middle class families and seniors moving instead of young people. Combined with intense political polorazation with white people.

[Continential]

Unrelated but I like to look at houses in Zillow and something which shocked me were the prices of houses in Williamson County. Why are they so expensive?

[diptheriadan]

When the sun rises in the west and sets in the east. When the seas go dry and mountains blow in the wind like leaves.

[Roll Roons]

For a time, I thought Tennessee would eventually go the way of Georgia maybe in the 2030s with Nashville being like a new Atlanta, but I didn't realize how many votes Republicans actually net out of East Tennessee. Tennessee likely won't be competitive until Democrats make a serious dent in East Tennessee, which would start by having to flip more than just Knox and Hamilton Counties.

[ProgressiveModerate]

For a time, I thought Tennessee would eventually go the way of Georgia maybe in the 2030s with Nashville being like a new Atlanta, but I didn't realize how many votes Republicans actually net out of East Tennessee. Tennessee likely won't be competitive until Democrats make a serious dent in East Tennessee, which would start by having to flip more than just Knox and Hamilton Counties.

Ye exactly this, and it has only been getting redder for the past 2 decades.

Another problem is a lot of the dense suburban/exurban growth in Nashville seems to be favorable to Republicans; even if some of these communities technically have swung left they still net Republicans more votes than 20 years ago. Also unlike say Atlanta in Georgia, a lot of the core black parts of Memphis are shrinking, and not growing/expanding.

[Sol]

Doesn't seem too likely in the immediate future, for the reasons everyone's mentioned.

That said, I do think there are some interested underrated spots for potential political shifts. Rutherford County in particular is the kind of place that really sticks out as having seen pretty dramatic demographic change.

Memphis's suburbs have a long history of undergoing dramatic white flight, currently happening in DeSoto County; this is probably why TN-09 has such weird boundaries (well and pampering the nasty urban Republicans in East Memphis).

[smoltchanov]

It will, but, most likely, i will not live long enough to see it. Sometime in 2050th...

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Doesn't seem too likely in the immediate future, for the reasons everyone's mentioned.

That said, I do think there are some interested underrated spots for potential political shifts. Rutherford County in particular is the kind of place that really sticks out as having seen pretty dramatic demographic change.

Memphis's suburbs have a long history of undergoing dramatic white flight, currently happening in DeSoto County; this is probably why TN-09 has such weird boundaries (well and pampering the nasty urban Republicans in East Memphis).

I always felt like Rutherford County was Democrats' best bet to make inroads in Middle Tennessee.  But, they really bombed there in 2022.  We'll see what it looks like in 2024.

For Democrats to seriously compete there, they'll have to win more than a few liberal whites in Murfreesboro (which is a Trump-won city).  The key is La Vergne and Smyrna.  They're highly diverse (increasingly becoming extensions of Southeast Nashville/Antioch).  La Vergne is now minority-majority and voted for Biden in 2020.  But, it's a quarter Hispanic (and that number is probably increasing), and it's unclear how reliable Tennessee Hispanics are for Democrats.  I don't think any Democrat carried the city in 2022.

[patzer]

I doubt Tennessee as a whole will flip, but the 5th congressional district could feasibly go Dem by the end of the decade.

[TML]

It's really hard to say with any degree of certainty. Based on results from 2018 and 2020, I can say this, though: if the result of a statewide contest in TN were roughly even, the following counties would flip from R to D:

Hamilton
Hardeman
Knox
Madison
Montgomery
Rutherford

These counties include the third- to fifth-most populous cities in the state, as well as a county with a substantial (but declining) share of blacks, and two other suburban counties. It seems that Democrats would need to make substantial inroads in the suburbs of major cities in the state in order to be competitive.

[King of Kensington]

If Tennessee became competitive, there would be very few if any safe GOP states left.

[wnwnwn]

This factors together:
- Democrats moderate on inmigration.
- Memphis grows on TN side
- Nashville expands and become a black mecca
- Knox and Hamilton counties become +5% dem
- Dems go all pro agrarian after a new farm crisis
- An appalachian interest party appears and wins some state house seats before uniting with democrats.

[King of Kensington]

Tennessee was one of 10 states where the GOP received over 60% of the vote in the last presidential election.  There would have to be an earth-shattering realignment in US politics.

[Death of a Salesman]

Race, religion, and education are the three major predictive factors in explaining voting choices. Tennessee is whiter than average (78% CVAP v. 67% overall), more religious than average (51% weekly church attendance v. 34% overall, as of 2013), and less college-educated than average (30% of white adults, v. 37% overall). In order for it to be a swing state, the parties would have to have dramatically different support bases.

There are some states where a change in the loading of these factors could shift their partisanship. Maine is much whiter than the US as a whole and the white population has a below-average college graduation rate. It's a moderately Democratic state because it's much more secular than the US as a whole. For Tennessee to become a genuine swing state, the state would have to change demographically to an extreme degree or the parties would have to flip their orientations. 

[Pres Mike]

I doubt Tennessee as a whole will flip, but the 5th congressional district could feasibly go Dem by the end of the decade.

It was a D held seat until 2022, when it was horribly gerrymandered. They split Nashville between three districts.

They split the state capitol and one of the fastest growing cities in the country. The city has no representation anymore. The three representatives are going to care more about the cities of Colombia, Clarksville and Cooksville now.

[kwabbit]

Unrelated but I like to look at houses in Zillow and something which shocked me were the prices of houses in Williamson County. Why are they so expensive?

Rich people pay a premium to live by other rich people.

[kwabbit]

The party system would have to change for it to become a swing state. Although Tennessee might begin to trend Democrat within this system, the state is not urban and educated enough to ever be a swing state. Nashville metro is 1/4 of the state's population. Atlanta is 1/2. That's the difference between TN's path and GA's path.

[patzer]

I doubt Tennessee as a whole will flip, but the 5th congressional district could feasibly go Dem by the end of the decade.

It was a D held seat until 2022, when it was horribly gerrymandered. They split Nashville between three districts.

They split the state capitol and one of the fastest growing cities in the country. The city has no representation anymore. The three representatives are going to care more about the cities of Colombia, Clarksville and Cooksville now.

Yes, and in 2022 (a good year for the Republicans), the seat only voted Republican by 13 points. It's probably still going to be flippable by the end of the decade.

[It’s so Joever]

Whenever countrypolitan areas ever vote D (this taking much of East TN with it)

[Pres Mike]

I doubt Tennessee as a whole will flip, but the 5th congressional district could feasibly go Dem by the end of the decade.

It was a D held seat until 2022, when it was horribly gerrymandered. They split Nashville between three districts.

They split the state capitol and one of the fastest growing cities in the country. The city has no representation anymore. The three representatives are going to care more about the cities of Colombia, Clarksville and Cooksville now.

Yes, and in 2022 (a good year for the Republicans), the seat only voted Republican by 13 points. It's probably still going to be flippable by the end of the decade.

Maybe. Republicans could try to redistrict it even more

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Tennessee is more likely to be high 60s for Republicans this decade than being a swing state soon

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Tennessee is more likely to be high 60s for Republicans this decade than being a swing state soon

Nah, they're basically maxed out in rural Tennessee so getting to high 60s isn't feasible.

[King of Kensington]

South Carolina and Florida also have fast growth and aren't moving left.

[King of Kensington]

https://twitter.com/_fat_ugly_rat_/status/1487458962119303174

[100% pro-life no matter what]

South Carolina and Florida also have fast growth and aren't moving left.

Tennessee might be #2 on the list of the post-covid "conservative destination states" behind Florida.  Don't discount how many conservatives from blue states moved to places like Tennessee over the last few years because of its politics (or low taxes or being open during covid).