why did virginia Rs do so well in dem PVI seats

[freepcrusher]

in the state legislature? When I first started following politics around 2009, didn't the dems have a decent number of McCain voting seats in the legislature? I've always assumed that in the south, you can add about five points to the dem presidential vote margin.

Or does that only apply to areas in the south with minimal population change, where the same electorate has been living there for decades?

[Oryxslayer]

Well the first thing is cause of southern White Dems and downballot lag. Thats hasn't been a thing for a while at the federal level, and is no longer a thing at the legislative level. You can still find incumbents of that type in county governments though, albeit less every year.

Now why the VA GOP? Three things. 1: Odd year elections mean comparatively poor low-income minority turnout, so some seats have off-year electorates that are worse for dems then normally. 2: It's still a Dem president midterm, and the electorates arn't as Democratic in registered voters. Dems just have been hitting it out of the park on persuasion  since Dobbs. 3: Youngkin is popular cause the Dem senate forced him into the figurehead Gov role and prevented him from passing anything with impact. That opinion important to some voters when deciding to give him full power or not.