How would the GOP win without Texas

[Samof94]

How could they win without Texas in a hypothetical future election?

[Agonized-Statism]

It would be very difficult considering that the trends that would push Texas away would take other Sun Belt states with it- if Democrats are winning Texas, they're probably winning Arizona and Georgia. That's why when Texas gets swingy, it'll quickly become the single most important state to the GOP and probably Democrats in elections.

[ottermax]

Theoretically I can imagine a future where the GOP gets much closer in New York or New Jersey due to racial depolarization, the appeal of Trumpism specifically to the NYC region, and the rise of Ultraorthodox Jewish voters.... but I think those trends are just not enough to counter the massive numbers of liberal voters in both states. Theoretically if the GOP made inroads into NY and NJ that would offset the loss of Texas...

However for NY or NJ to get closer the racial depolarization would also affect Texas so again it becomes a moot idea.

Another Trump-like figure though could definitely push Texas further to the left, while simultaneously pushing the Northeast to the right. Culturally Texas and the NE feels like the most opposite.

[Person Man]

I mean Trump 2016 - TX would be 266, right? With Nevada, that could be 272. Somehow he really bombs with your typical voters that keep voting for Republicans, Trump, but also for Abortion and the "redpill" really picks up amongst poc guys in their 20s and 30s who aren't book smart. Both can happen, right?

[DS0816]

How could they [Republicans] win without Texas in a hypothetical future election?

No major political party will win the presidency while the other party has carried the two most-populous states in that given election.

In the past 59 United States presidential elections, only two times did the winner manage without either No. 1 or No. 2.

This happened with two 20th-century Democratic incumbent U.S. presidents: 1916 Woodrow Wilson and 1948 Harry Truman.

During this time, the two most-populous states were New York and Pennsylvania.

Effective with Election 1996 … today’s two most-populous states—California and Texas—have been a guard against the party which does not have a current alignment to that state.

For a Republican to prevail for U.S. President and not carry Texas …I would figure realignment occurred in which Texas moved over to the Democrats and California switched to the Republicans.

[Samof94]

How could they [Republicans] win without Texas in a hypothetical future election?

No major political party will win the presidency while the other party has carried the two most-populous states in that given election.

In the past 59 United States presidential elections, only two times did the winner manage without either No. 1 or No. 2.

This happened with two 20th-century Democratic incumbent U.S. presidents: 1916 Woodrow Wilson and 1948 Harry Truman.

During this time, the two most-populous states were New York and Pennsylvania.

Effective with Election 1996 … today’s two most-populous states—California and Texas—have been a guard against the party which does not have a current alignment to that state.

For a Republican to prevail for U.S. President and not carry Texas …I would figure realignment occurred in which Texas moved over to the Democrats and California switched to the Republicans.

1948 wasn't a two candidate race.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I mean Trump 2016 - TX would be 266, right? With Nevada, that could be 272. Somehow he really bombs with your typical voters that keep voting for Republicans, Trump, but also for Abortion and the "redpill" really picks up amongst poc guys in their 20s and 30s who aren't book smart. Both can happen, right?

Fair point, but in this scenario I'd argue it'd be pretty difficult for AZ to vote to the right of TX. GA also seems tricky. Rs could maybe gain MN and break through in the northeast, though current re-alignment suggests those states are currently shifting away from them if anything. Things can change though.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They won't if Biden wins OH which is a bellwether TX and FL and NV and AZ will come in D meaning it's already over

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Maybe NY flips by then, or Republicans win MN/WI/MI/PA/GA. It's hard to imagine, but it was also hard to imagine Iowa voting to the right of Texas in 2012.