Word is the Biden campaign is working on getting pro-choice referendum's on the ballot in Arizona, Florida, and Nevada for 2024.
Worked for Dubya with anti-gay marriage amendments in 2004.
I mostly believe the GA polling, but I really, really doubt that PA polling after this week and the Oz leads in 2022.
The electorate in PA 2024 is different from 2022 in that 2024 tends to have more low-propensity WWC voters show up. I doubt Trump does anywhere near as bad as the off-year candidates in Western PA. I also highly doubt Philadelphia trends left while Dauphin trends right.
Off-year cycles don't really mean much; Pennsylvania was D +1 in 2020 after being D +13 and 17 in 2018. Also, Wisconsin should be left of Pennsylvania if you only go by Supreme Court elections (which I don't think is good analysis anyways).
Also, early polls were Fetterman +10 in Pennsylvania (which is a better apples to apples comparison as the current polls are early). FWIW I expect Trump to pull off PA while Casey does in between McCaffery and Fetterman. Emerson also shows Casey up by 8 in Pennsylvania for example.
