What states are anti-abortion?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Most states are pro choice, but what states do you think the majority of voters support strict abortion bans if it were to come to referendums (and assuming their state offered referendums)? This is what I'm thinking:

TX, GA, MO could really go either way

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

How strict are we talking?

[Red Wall]

Georgia and Missouri would probably not support abortion bans. But Georgia would be very inelastic and abortion would probably outperform Biden 2020 by under 5 points.

South Carolina and Texas are less republican than MO but for the reasons stated for GA they would back abortion bans.

WV the pro choice option would outperform dems a lot but not enough. Less so in the Dakotas. Utah is trending pro choice but also not enough.

Idaho and Wyoming would back bans as they are hardcore Republicans and the deep south states you placed in red would be the most anti abortion in the country, with Louisiana and Alabama leading the pack.

[Person Man]

Wyoming is really interesting because it used to be much more pro-choice. The Dakotas to an extent as well.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

https://twitter.com/lxeagle17/status/1529104230853726208

[Gass3268]

Word is the Biden campaign is working on getting pro-choice referendum's on the ballot in Arizona, Florida, and Nevada for 2024.

[Person Man]

Word is the Biden campaign is working on getting pro-choice referendum's on the ballot in Arizona, Florida, and Nevada for 2024.

It would probably make Arizona tilt-D but Nevada already has explicit abortion rights, and I don’t think  anything would really work in Florida but I’m open to it giving a Biden a shot there if he is favored to win overall. It could really save his ass in Arizona if Biden loses Wisconsin and Nevada.

[Roll Roons]

Wyoming is really interesting because it used to be much more pro-choice. The Dakotas to an extent as well.

I don’t think Wyoming is quite as staunchly anti-abortion as OP’s map indicates. Maybe this has changed, but I always got the impression that Wyoming’s conservatism was more about wanting to be left alone by the government as opposed to the religious flavor in the South or Utah/eastern Idaho.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Wyoming is really interesting because it used to be much more pro-choice. The Dakotas to an extent as well.

I don’t think Wyoming is quite as staunchly anti-abortion as OP’s map indicates. Maybe this has changed, but I always got the impression that Wyoming’s conservatism was more about wanting to be left alone by the government as opposed to the religious flavor in the South or Utah/eastern Idaho.

It's still a very social conservative state. Alaska and Montana are more libertarian.

[7,052,770]

It's been a while, but South Dakota and Mississippi voters rejected abortion bans pre-Dobbs.

[Person Man]

Wyoming is really interesting because it used to be much more pro-choice. The Dakotas to an extent as well.

I don’t think Wyoming is quite as staunchly anti-abortion as OP’s map indicates. Maybe this has changed, but I always got the impression that Wyoming’s conservatism was more about wanting to be left alone by the government as opposed to the religious flavor in the South or Utah/eastern Idaho.

It's still a very social conservative state. Alaska and Montana are more libertarian.

My guess is that a lot of people not associated with the energy industry have moved out as energy employees have moved in. Wyoming’s boom and bust cycles probably change its culture much more than you would imagine. The suburb I live in has more people than Wyoming.

[Del Tachi]

As noted, Mississippi voters rejected a fetal personhood amendment in 2011...and it wasn't particularly close, no won 58-41. 

A more moderate position (i.e., a 15 week ban) could probably pass in Mississippi and some other Deep South states but I don't think it would be popular nationally. 

[GAinDC]

Georgia would not be anti abortion. There’s a belief on here that Black voters in the south vote Dem but are socially conservative on every issue and that’s not the case. Black voters across the board are more pro choice.

A referendum in GA protecting abortion would have strong Black support and blowout margins across metro Atlanta, Savannah, Athens and the fall line cities. The anti choice side would win most of the rural counties (except the Black belt) but underperform generic Republican.

I’d say GA would pass it by about 10 points.

[Reactionary Libertarian]

https://twitter.com/lxeagle17/status/1529104230853726208

This shows Kentucky as net pro-life, but that’s not how they voted in real life. Just because someone identifies as pro-life doesn’t mean they support the GOP’s abortion policy. I think bans before viability would only pass in the Deep South like Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas. Probably also Tennessee and West Virginia. No way it would pass Wyoming or any Western State.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

As noted, Mississippi voters rejected a fetal personhood amendment in 2011...and it wasn't particularly close, no won 58-41. 

A more moderate position (i.e., a 15 week ban) could probably pass in Mississippi and some other Deep South states but I don't think it would be popular nationally. 

The thing is Louisiana passed a no right to abortion amendment in 2020, and it wasn't even close outrunning Trump. Mississippi is even more conservative.

[Del Tachi]

As noted, Mississippi voters rejected a fetal personhood amendment in 2011...and it wasn't particularly close, no won 58-41. 

A more moderate position (i.e., a 15 week ban) could probably pass in Mississippi and some other Deep South states but I don't think it would be popular nationally. 

The thing is Louisiana passed a no right to abortion amendment in 2020, and it wasn't even close outrunning Trump. Mississippi is even more conservative.

Pre-Dobbs comparisons are not really valid because of how much the issue salience has changed.

[EastwoodS]

Word is the Biden campaign is working on getting pro-choice referendum's on the ballot in Arizona, Florida, and Nevada for 2024.

Aww that’s cute. “I can't win by myself so I’ll just rely on amendments to throw me over the line”

[Alben Barkley]

Word is the Biden campaign is working on getting pro-choice referendum's on the ballot in Arizona, Florida, and Nevada for 2024.

Aww that’s cute. “I can't win by myself so I’ll just rely on amendments to throw me over the line”

Worked for Dubya with anti-gay marriage amendments in 2004.

[EastwoodS]

Word is the Biden campaign is working on getting pro-choice referendum's on the ballot in Arizona, Florida, and Nevada for 2024.

Aww that’s cute. “I can't win by myself so I’ll just rely on amendments to throw me over the line”

Worked for Dubya with anti-gay marriage amendments in 2004.

Lmaoo, I was ACTUALLY about to add that in there.

[Alben Barkley]

https://twitter.com/lxeagle17/status/1529104230853726208

The thing about "pro-life" vs. "pro-choice" identity though is that people define those terms differently and they may not perfectly predict how they actually vote on these bans. Like clearly Kentucky rejected banning abortion in the state constitution last year even though "pro-life" won in that poll in the state easily.

I think the NYTimes estimation of how states would vote after the Kansas referendum is a better barometer:

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/lxeagle17/status/1529104230853726208

The thing about "pro-life" vs. "pro-choice" identity though is that people define those terms differently and they may not perfectly predict how they actually vote on these bans. Like clearly Kentucky rejected banning abortion in the state constitution last year even though "pro-life" won in that poll in the state easily.

I think the NYTimes estimation of how states would vote after the Kansas referendum is a better barometer:

Also pre Dobbs  , someone could be considered pro Life if they supported a 12-15 week ban even if they opposed a 6 week ban since that policy would be more pro life than what was allowed under  Roe . Now the question is what position do they dislike more between : “ban after 0-6 weeks” , “allow for at least the first 24 weeks” and most of them dislike the 0-6 week position more .
 

[100% pro-life no matter what]

It's hard to say what states pro-life would win a referendum because of two big questions:

-Is it conducted with off-year, midterm, or presidential turnout?  The higher the turnout, the better the pro-life side will do (since the pro-abortion side is more enthusiastic about voting right now).

-Is it a "right to abortion" or a "no right to abortion" referendum?  I think the "no" side of both of those does a couple points better than you'd expect.

In presidential year turnout, I think the pro-life side can win a yes/no referendum in Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Wyoming, Utah, Idaho, and North Dakota.  Kentucky and South Dakota would probably be dependent on which side is "no" with presidential year turnout.  South Carolina isn't totally out of the question either.

While it wouldn't win a yes/no referendum, the pro-life side would do a lot better than you'd expect in Georgia, probably just losing by a few points.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

It's hard to say what states pro-life would win a referendum because of two big questions:

-Is it conducted with off-year, midterm, or presidential turnout?  The higher the turnout, the better the pro-life side will do (since the pro-abortion side is more enthusiastic about voting right now).

-Is it a "right to abortion" or a "no right to abortion" referendum?  I think the "no" side of both of those does a couple points better than you'd expect.

In presidential year turnout, I think the pro-life side can win a yes/no referendum in Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Wyoming, Utah, Idaho, and North Dakota.  Kentucky and South Dakota would probably be dependent on which side is "no" with presidential year turnout.  South Carolina isn't totally out of the question either.

While it wouldn't win a yes/no referendum, the pro-life side would do a lot better than you'd expect in Georgia, probably just losing by a few points.

My question basically was could the pro life side win a referendum in at least one situation? Yes side/ No side 15 weeks, 6 weeks, midterm, presidential year, that's up to you decide.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Word is the Biden campaign is working on getting pro-choice referendum's on the ballot in Arizona, Florida, and Nevada for 2024.

Aww that’s cute. “I can't win by myself so I’ll just rely on amendments to throw me over the line”

Worked for Dubya with anti-gay marriage amendments in 2004.

Georgia is basically gone for Biden and PA looks bad for him in polling too. If Biden loses both, he needs FL as a backup, which could happen with abortion and marijuana on the ballot.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Word is the Biden campaign is working on getting pro-choice referendum's on the ballot in Arizona, Florida, and Nevada for 2024.

It would probably make Arizona tilt-D but Nevada already has explicit abortion rights, and I don’t think  anything would really work in Florida but I’m open to it giving a Biden a shot there if he is favored to win overall. It could really save his ass in Arizona if Biden loses Wisconsin and Nevada.

It could also save Biden if he only holds Michigan out of the big 7 assuming he can flip Florida.