How did Beshear manage to do so well in Appalachian Kentucky in 2023?

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

There was some severe floods there and he had a very efficient and effective flood relief response, and visited the impacted areas himself.

[Ferguson97]

1. He had a good response to a bunch of local issues, including the flooding.

2. He's relatively moderate.

3. Kentucky has stupid veto rules, so he doesn't have a ton of power anyway.

4. Gubernatorial elections are less partisan anyway.

5. Daniel Cameron is Black.

[OSR stands with Israel]

He's relatively moderate.

Is he though given He Is to the left of Democrats such as JBE, Manchin, Sinema and arguably Democrats like Gottheimer, Cuellar,  and arguably Feinstein too.  Given he is in Kentucky and not Oregon, I don't know if he can be called relatively moderate as he is pretty liberal for a red state.

It does make his win all the more impressive though

[Mr. Smith]

He's relatively moderate.

Is he though given He Is to the left of Democrats such as JBE, Manchin, Sinema and arguably Democrats like Gottheimer, Cuellar,  and arguably Feinstein too.  Given he is in Kentucky and not Oregon, I don't know if he can be called relatively moderate as he is pretty liberal for a red state.

It does make his win all the more impressive though

I hope you don't consider Chris Sununu moderate in the same breath.

[Ferguson97]

Is he though given He Is to the left of Democrats such as JBE, Manchin, Sinema and arguably Democrats like Gottheimer, Cuellar,  and arguably Feinstein too.  Given he is in Kentucky and not Oregon, I don't know if he can be called relatively moderate as he is pretty liberal for a red state.

So he's to the left of the most conservative Democrats? Sounds like he's a moderate...

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

5. Daniel Cameron is Black.

This is the biggest factor as to why Beshear did well in Appalachian Kentucky specifically (as opposed to doing well in general, in other sorts of areas.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

The flood response

[Roll Roons]

My coworker from Kentucky said Beshear's victory came down to these things:
1. Cameron trying to nationalize the race and call Beshear a Biden puppet even as Beshear was able to portray himself as a competent administrator in the wake of COVID and natural disasters.
2. Cameron being a black man from Louisville. It's not just about his race. Don't underestimate the penalty that "big city" candidates often face when running statewide - look at how candidates from Philly rarely win statewide in PA.
3. Beshear's family name still having a lot of goodwill with rural voters.

Maybe nothing earth-shattering, but all these are definitely valid.

[Alben Barkley]

As detailed in this article, the floods probably explain some of the huge swings like Breathitt and flips like Letcher.

But they can't explain everything. Hal Rogers' district, which includes Eastern and South Central Kentucky, is one of the most Republican and Trumpian in the country, and Beshear outperformed Biden there by a whopping 45 points. The Beshear brand is apparently still strong in the Eastern region of the state, with some ancestral Dems still seeing a distinction between the state party and the national Democratic Party. Way more than I thought, actually.

[MT Treasurer]

In addition to some of the other factors mentioned in this thread, Rocky Adkins also endorsed and campaigned for him in that part of the state. But again, people are missing the elephant in the room:

DDHQ estimates that 79% of Biden voters in 2020 turned out to vote, while only 53% of Trump voters voted in the 2023 Kentucky Governor election. Beshear’s ability to win over Trump voters has captured a lot of press, but many of them just sat this race out. This turnout gulf helped propel Beshear to victory, something he could not have achieved with persuasion alone. Without this substantial turnout advantage, Beshear would have lost handily.

https://decisiondeskhq.com/how-democrat-andy-beshear-won-re-election-in-deep-red-kentucky/

[Skill and Chance]

As detailed in this article, the floods probably explain some of the huge swings like Breathitt and flips like Letcher.

But they can't explain everything. Hal Rogers' district, which includes Eastern and South Central Kentucky, is one of the most Republican and Trumpian in the country, and Beshear outperformed Biden there by a whopping 45 points. The Beshear brand is apparently still strong in the Eastern region of the state, with some ancestral Dems still seeing a distinction between the state party and the national Democratic Party. Way more than I thought, actually.

Honestly, I think there's mounting evidence Appalachia peaked for R's in 2016.  It's not going to vote Dem under normal circumstances anytime soon, but I do think these voters expected something fundamentally different from Trump-era R's on economics than they got, and they clearly aren't as pro-life as assumed.  It's starting to show, particularly in oddly-timed elections when they have to be motivated to turn out.  D's didn't win anything of note, but they did do oddly well in the contested western VA races compared to the statewide results. 

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

As detailed in this article, the floods probably explain some of the huge swings like Breathitt and flips like Letcher.

But they can't explain everything. Hal Rogers' district, which includes Eastern and South Central Kentucky, is one of the most Republican and Trumpian in the country, and Beshear outperformed Biden there by a whopping 45 points. The Beshear brand is apparently still strong in the Eastern region of the state, with some ancestral Dems still seeing a distinction between the state party and the national Democratic Party. Way more than I thought, actually.

Honestly, I think there's mounting evidence Appalachia peaked for R's in 2016.  It's not going to vote Dem under normal circumstances anytime soon, but I do think these voters expected something fundamentally different from Trump-era R's on economics than they got, and they clearly aren't as pro-life as assumed.  It's starting to show, particularly in oddly-timed elections when they have to be motivated to turn out.  D's didn't win anything of note, but they did do oddly well in the contested western VA races compared to the statewide results. 

I believe it's just turnout differentials (79% of Biden voters turned out in KY versus 52% Trump voters. Turnout in MS also favored Ds but less so). I have to see the Appalachia trend significant blue in a Presidential election to believe it.

[Alben Barkley]

As detailed in this article, the floods probably explain some of the huge swings like Breathitt and flips like Letcher.

But they can't explain everything. Hal Rogers' district, which includes Eastern and South Central Kentucky, is one of the most Republican and Trumpian in the country, and Beshear outperformed Biden there by a whopping 45 points. The Beshear brand is apparently still strong in the Eastern region of the state, with some ancestral Dems still seeing a distinction between the state party and the national Democratic Party. Way more than I thought, actually.

Honestly, I think there's mounting evidence Appalachia peaked for R's in 2016.  It's not going to vote Dem under normal circumstances anytime soon, but I do think these voters expected something fundamentally different from Trump-era R's on economics than they got, and they clearly aren't as pro-life as assumed.  It's starting to show, particularly in oddly-timed elections when they have to be motivated to turn out.  D's didn't win anything of note, but they did do oddly well in the contested western VA races compared to the statewide results. 

I really hope you're right. It would be amazing if they realized they'd been conned and turned on the con man. But I too will believe it when I see it.

[wnwnwn]

5. Daniel Cameron is Black.

It may had some effects, but Beshear didn't do that well in the areas of the state where Wallace had more support in  1968. There are no Wallace1968 - Beshear2023 counties.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

As detailed in this article, the floods probably explain some of the huge swings like Breathitt and flips like Letcher.

But they can't explain everything. Hal Rogers' district, which includes Eastern and South Central Kentucky, is one of the most Republican and Trumpian in the country, and Beshear outperformed Biden there by a whopping 45 points. The Beshear brand is apparently still strong in the Eastern region of the state, with some ancestral Dems still seeing a distinction between the state party and the national Democratic Party. Way more than I thought, actually.

Honestly, I think there's mounting evidence Appalachia peaked for R's in 2016.  It's not going to vote Dem under normal circumstances anytime soon, but I do think these voters expected something fundamentally different from Trump-era R's on economics than they got, and they clearly aren't as pro-life as assumed.  It's starting to show, particularly in oddly-timed elections when they have to be motivated to turn out.  D's didn't win anything of note, but they did do oddly well in the contested western VA races compared to the statewide results. 

The biggest reason for this is because Dems have become far too socially liberal for these voters to tolerate. Even in the late 90's when the shift started, downballot Dems were pro-life, pro-gun, pro coal. Obama 2008 still had appeal as he was pretty neutral on LGBTQ and the economy was in shambles. 2012 comes around and Obama's margin collapses further as he focuses a lot more on a minority voter campaign and became more liberal on LGBTQ. Obama was only 61 votes away from losing Elliott county that year, and probably would have lost it if Romney didn't come across as money bags Mitt. 2016 comes around, and what does Hillary Clinton do? She basically throws out her husband's playbook from the 90's calls them deplorables and well the rest is history.

[Alben Barkley]

5. Daniel Cameron is Black.

It may had some effects, but Beshear didn't do that well in the areas of the state where Wallace had more support in  1968. There are no Wallace1968 - Beshear2023 counties.

Most people who voted in 1968 are dead. And there were hardly any Wallace 1968 counties in KY anyway. I really don't think that's relevant lol.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

As detailed in this article, the floods probably explain some of the huge swings like Breathitt and flips like Letcher.

But they can't explain everything. Hal Rogers' district, which includes Eastern and South Central Kentucky, is one of the most Republican and Trumpian in the country, and Beshear outperformed Biden there by a whopping 45 points. The Beshear brand is apparently still strong in the Eastern region of the state, with some ancestral Dems still seeing a distinction between the state party and the national Democratic Party. Way more than I thought, actually.

Honestly, I think there's mounting evidence Appalachia peaked for R's in 2016.  It's not going to vote Dem under normal circumstances anytime soon, but I do think these voters expected something fundamentally different from Trump-era R's on economics than they got, and they clearly aren't as pro-life as assumed.  It's starting to show, particularly in oddly-timed elections when they have to be motivated to turn out.  D's didn't win anything of note, but they did do oddly well in the contested western VA races compared to the statewide results. 

I believe it's just turnout differentials (79% of Biden voters turned out in KY versus 52% Trump voters. Turnout in MS also favored Ds but less so). I have to see the Appalachia trend significant blue in a Presidential election to believe it.

Exit polls also showed that Ohio's electorate was Biden +2 in a Trump +8 state.

[SInNYC]

As others have said, his handling of the flood helped a lot. But also, he is on the left on economics and populist issues (eg, Medicaid expansion), but doesnt get all stressed out over social issues. This fits Appalachia (and I would argue most non-southern rural parts of the country) well.

[Хahar 🤔]

5. Daniel Cameron is Black.

This is the biggest factor as to why Beshear did well in Appalachian Kentucky specifically (as opposed to doing well in general, in other sorts of areas.

This is the swing map:



If race was the biggest factor in Appalachia, then why were most of the counties with the largest swings toward Cameron also in Appalachia? Are those places fake Appalachia because they're not racist?

[Stranger in a strange land]

5. Daniel Cameron is Black.

This is the biggest factor as to why Beshear did well in Appalachian Kentucky specifically (as opposed to doing well in general, in other sorts of areas.

This sort of response misunderstands how racism works in 2023 America: most racists will be more than happy to vote for "one of the good ones" to show how not-racist they are.

[At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder]

It is funny how Bullitt Co. actually swung towards Cameron which is an exurban county known to be a hotbed of racists in the Louisville Metro (it's the northernmost Wallace 1968 county and has the most Klan members in KY) as it attracts a lot of people who don't want to live in Louisville (which still has a busing system for diversity purposes) but can't afford to buy a home in Oldham Co. In recent years though, Bullitt has experienced plenty of growth as well as multiple new factories creating well paying jobs during Beshear's term as Governor. It also voted just about 50-50 on abortion last year.

[Mr. Smith]

5. Daniel Cameron is Black.

This is the biggest factor as to why Beshear did well in Appalachian Kentucky specifically (as opposed to doing well in general, in other sorts of areas.

This is the swing map:



If race was the biggest factor in Appalachia, then why were most of the counties with the largest swings toward Cameron also in Appalachia? Are those places fake Appalachia because they're not racist?

Except most of Appalachia had the heaviest swings to Beshear. Meanwhile more of the Cameron swung counties seem to be in the Southwest.

[Alben Barkley]

5. Daniel Cameron is Black.

This is the biggest factor as to why Beshear did well in Appalachian Kentucky specifically (as opposed to doing well in general, in other sorts of areas.

This is the swing map:



If race was the biggest factor in Appalachia, then why were most of the counties with the largest swings toward Cameron also in Appalachia? Are those places fake Appalachia because they're not racist?

Except most of Appalachia had the heaviest swings to Beshear. Meanwhile more of the Cameron swung counties seem to be in the Southwest.

It's interesting how there seems to be a big divide between Southeastern Appalachian Kentucky and Northeastern Appalachian Kentucky. Even more fascinating is the same divide exists between the 2000 election, where Gore did well in Southeastern Kentucky but not as well in Northeastern Kentucky, and the 2004 election in which Kerry flipped several Northeastern Kentucky counties but lost ground in Southeastern Kentucky.

The flooding, which affected the Southeast, probably has something to do with it but again does not explain everything, especially as you can see the same divide going back 20 years. It's even weirder when you have Elliott in the Northeast as the most staunchly Democratic county for so long, only to have the biggest shift away from Beshear in this election.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

This sort of response misunderstands how racism works in 2023 America: most racists will be more than happy to vote for "one of the good ones" to show how not-racist they are.

That is definitely true for some, but not all. And the important point is really that it is more true for some offices than for lower offices.

It is a bigger ask to a racist to vote for "one of the good ones" for Governor than it is to ask them to vote for "one of the good ones" for Attorney General. So there are those who were happy to vote for him for AG previously, but not quite so enthused about making him Governor.

Similarly, while there clearly ARE some Republicans who would be willing to vote for a black Republican like Tim Scott for President, there are a lot more who would be willing to vote for him for Senator.