If Youngkin was up for re-election yesterday, would he have won?

[Tekken_Guy]

If Glenn Youngkin was eligible for re-election and up again yesterday, would he have won?

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Yes, probably by double digits.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Yes, the popular vote was very close for the legislature, and Youngkin is more popular than Generic R.  He wins pretty easily yesterday.

[Spectator]

Yes, and I don’t think it’d be that close.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Honestly, he probably not only wins but also lifts up Republicans to control of the State Legislature too.

[Skill and Chance]

Reelection?  Yes, no doubt.

The more interesting question is what would happen if you re-ran the 2021 election this year?  It would be something like McAuliffe +1 statewide based on the legislative PV, but Youngkin also outran the other 2 statewide Republicans, by 0.5% (LG) and 1% (AG).  So, this feels like it would be a recount for governor, with Dems very likely winning LG and AG.

Similarly, VA Democrats are very, very fortunate that the state senate wasn't up in 2021.  There's no way they would have held all 21 seats for the majority.

[Tekken_Guy]

Reelection?  Yes, no doubt.

The more interesting question is what would happen if you re-ran the 2021 election this year?  It would be something like McAuliffe +1 statewide based on the legislative PV, but Youngkin also outran the other 2 statewide Republicans, by 0.5% (LG) and 1% (AG).  So, this feels like it would be a recount for governor, with Dems very likely winning LG and AG.

Similarly, VA Democrats are very, very fortunate that the state senate wasn't up in 2021.  There's no way they would have held all 21 seats for the majority.

McAuliffe actually won a majority of state senate districts in 2021, so I think Democrats narrowly hold the Senate.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Yes, especially since with his ass directly on the line I don't think he would have gambled with the 15 week ban play.

[Xing]

Yes, by about the same margin as Beshear.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Reelection?  Yes, no doubt.

The more interesting question is what would happen if you re-ran the 2021 election this year?  It would be something like McAuliffe +1 statewide based on the legislative PV, but Youngkin also outran the other 2 statewide Republicans, by 0.5% (LG) and 1% (AG).  So, this feels like it would be a recount for governor, with Dems very likely winning LG and AG.

Similarly, VA Democrats are very, very fortunate that the state senate wasn't up in 2021.  There's no way they would have held all 21 seats for the majority.

McAuliffe actually won a majority of state senate districts in 2021, so I think Democrats narrowly hold the Senate.

McAuliffe lost SD-31 by 0.6 points. Even though it was Seat 19 for Democrats in 2023, it was Seat 20 in Youngkin vs McAuliffe.

[Tekken_Guy]

Reelection?  Yes, no doubt.

The more interesting question is what would happen if you re-ran the 2021 election this year?  It would be something like McAuliffe +1 statewide based on the legislative PV, but Youngkin also outran the other 2 statewide Republicans, by 0.5% (LG) and 1% (AG).  So, this feels like it would be a recount for governor, with Dems very likely winning LG and AG.

Similarly, VA Democrats are very, very fortunate that the state senate wasn't up in 2021.  There's no way they would have held all 21 seats for the majority.

McAuliffe actually won a majority of state senate districts in 2021, so I think Democrats narrowly hold the Senate.

McAuliffe lost SD-31 by 0.6 points. Even though it was Seat 19 for Democrats in 2023, it was Seat 20 in Youngkin vs McAuliffe.

I meant the old 2010s senate map.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Nope

[DaleCooper]

Probably, but the campaign also would've been different. If he was bragging about how he'd ban abortion, but only after 15 weeks, then I think he could lose in an upset. I really do think that being pro-life in a blue state is the equivalent of "Hell yes we're coming for your AR15s!" in a red state.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Probably, but the campaign also would've been different. If he was bragging about how he'd ban abortion, but only after 15 weeks, then I think he could lose in an upset. I really do think that being pro-life in a blue state is the equivalent of "Hell yes we're coming for your AR15s!" in a red state.

Not a bad analogy.

[Del Tachi]

Yes, his approvals are about +25

[LabourJersey]

I would say Yes, but it's possible that his fumbling of the abortion issue would have hurt him enough to potentially lose. Would depend entirely on his opponent, I think.