Comey, 2016, and 1/6
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Dereich)
  Comey, 2016, and 1/6
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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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« on: November 08, 2023, 03:27:16 PM »

Let's say that Comey didn't release his letter, Hillary won 50-44 PV and 336-222 (freiwal + FL + NC + AZ) and was able to drag Kander, McGinty, and Feingold across the finish line. Let's also say Democrats took back the House as they were able to generate a 5% PV win and win 30 House seats.

Would there have been a 1/6 in 2017 and how would that have affected the next four years?
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Independents for Nihilism
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« Reply #1 on: November 08, 2023, 04:39:04 PM »
« Edited: November 08, 2023, 09:16:37 PM by Dean Phillips target demo »

Trump's cult wouldn't have had four years to stew if he lost in 2016. You'd undoubtedly see some 2000 style protests especially if the various states are close, and maybe a lone wolf tries to stop Hillary from eating babies before her inauguration or something a la Pizzagate, but nowhere near 1/6 levels. Especially since the situation you're describing isn't really all that close.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #2 on: November 09, 2023, 11:59:09 AM »

Some other interesting things to think about in your scenario:
- Hillary replaces Scalia flipping the court to 5-4 liberal majority.
- RBG retires not to long after, securing that liberal majority. Breyer may also choose to retire. The liberal court would be locked in for a long time.
- With a trifecta, it would be interesting to see what Hillary's main legislative priority would be. Infrastructure is probably a safe bet. Some Obamacare tweaks? Another try at climate legislation? Whatever is done would have to go through reconciliation.
- 2018 would be an absolute bloodbath for Democrats on a level worse than 2010 or 2014. Like Republicans get the ability to call a Constitutional Convention level bad.
- How does she handle COVID-19? What's the reaction from a Republican Congress and a supermajority of states under total Republican control.     
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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #3 on: November 09, 2023, 01:03:05 PM »

Some other interesting things to think about in your scenario:
- Hillary replaces Scalia flipping the court to 5-4 liberal majority.
- RBG retires not to long after, securing that liberal majority. Breyer may also choose to retire. The liberal court would be locked in for a long time.
- With a trifecta, it would be interesting to see what Hillary's main legislative priority would be. Infrastructure is probably a safe bet. Some Obamacare tweaks? Another try at climate legislation? Whatever is done would have to go through reconciliation.
- 2018 would be an absolute bloodbath for Democrats on a level worse than 2010 or 2014. Like Republicans get the ability to call a Constitutional Convention level bad.
- How does she handle COVID-19? What's the reaction from a Republican Congress and a supermajority of states under total Republican control.     


I was just thinking about all of this and if there was no 1/6 or similar butterfly, then yes. There would probably be a really bad year for Democrats. If there was, I think 2018 is bad, but probably not as bad as a 2014 type situation and if COVID happened and Republicans did what they did and Hillary basically embraced it in a 9/11 fashion, she could have gotten another trifecta, or at least reelected. 2022 would be a major bloodbath, though.
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