What is the main takeaway from the 2023 election cycle?

[John Dule]

Obviously an oversimplification, and these aren't mutually exclusive. But which factor do you think accounts more for the disparity between 2024 GE polling and the results from last night?

[Sir Mohamed]

Former to a higher degree. And that Biden's doesn't enflame so much passion against him. He's not the albatross around his party's neck as Trump and Obama were during their presidencies. Trump still is today it seems and was in 2022.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

None of the above. Split ticketing is alive, as evidenced by the 17 point delta between Reeves and the other MS candidates, and the 20+ point delta between Cameron and other candidates. Youngkin did okay, tying the popular vote in a Biden +10 state and losing 1 seat majorities in both chambers.

Overall, this makes me more bullish on Brown and Tester, but otherwise my predictions don't change much.

[wnwnwn]

People like good candidates

[Vosem]

It's the same as the takeaway from 2022: when both parties try really hard in a race, Democrats keep winning and often pretty comfortably, even though when neither side is trying as hard the national environment is actually quite Republican-favorable. This is the way you reconcile the astounding victories for Beshear and McCaffery with the state legislative stuff in VA/NJ/NYC/NH/MA. (Note that Democrats did do well enough to flip the Virginia House -- and I think also the New Hampshire House although I might have lost track of vacancies there -- but not better.)

Former to a higher degree. And that Biden's doesn't enflame so much passion against him. He's not the albatross around his party's neck as Trump and Obama were during their presidencies. Trump still is today it seems and was in 2022.

I would more so say Dobbs than Trump. All of the worst Republican performances recently have come in state Supreme Court races. When they get blown out in WI and MI and PA with 2008-like patterns you know there's a problem.

People like good candidates

Yeah, the highlight example is Beshear but even on the state legislative level it looks like there are more examples of candidates just out-hustling their opponents, in a way very different from 2021 when the pattern was pure "universal swing from 2020-POTUS whether the candidates are any good or not".

Overall, this makes me more bullish on Brown and Tester, but otherwise my predictions don't change much.

Sure, but still not that bullish. The McCaffery swing would not have been enough, if replicated, to reelect Brown, much less Tester, though I guess he was also not an incumbent.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Overall, this makes me more bullish on Brown and Tester, but otherwise my predictions don't change much.

Sure, but still not that bullish. The McCaffery swing would not have been enough, if replicated, to reelect Brown, much less Tester, though I guess he was also not an incumbent.

Beshear and Pressley both outran the other candidates in their state by 15+.

[Vosem]

Overall, this makes me more bullish on Brown and Tester, but otherwise my predictions don't change much.

Sure, but still not that bullish. The McCaffery swing would not have been enough, if replicated, to reelect Brown, much less Tester, though I guess he was also not an incumbent.

Beshear and Pressley both outran the other candidates in their state by 15+.

Totally fair. I think gubernatorial elections are very denationalized and the way Democrats have been doing well in state Supreme Court races recently is by nationalizing them, so I think the McCaffery stuff is more relevant, but I don't really think you're wrong for making this point. This is absolutely true.

[Beet]

More evidence for my theory that the two parties have switched places. Democrats now do better in low turnout elections focused on local social issues.

Last night may have saved Joe Biden's nomination. Only in a year from now will it be clear whether that was a blessing or a curse.

[Spectator]

Neither. Popularity matters for governors. Laura Kelly and now Andy Beshear surviving strong challenges from popular sitting state AGs in unfriendly terrain with a fairly unpopular Democratic President in the White House is proof of that.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Any poll that has Trump leading massively is absolute garbage. The end

[MT Treasurer]

1.) The Republican Party is a dysfunctional, entirely unappealing opposition party and has been this way since long before Dobbs. Roe v. Wade merely kept the last leg of the three-legged stool alive, with its repeal the stool became history. Reagan, the Bushes, McConnell, etc. — the sooner the party moves on from this chapter in its history, the better it will be off. The GOP currently has no smart leader who can push the party in that direction, and the old guard remains unwilling to listen to the base, desperate to hang on to power. The biggest obstacle to winning elections against a united front is internal division.

2.) Voters (human beings) flock to leaders, not followers. "Trumpism without Trump" doesn’t work for several reasons, but the main one is that it completely emasculates the candidate emulating Trump. You have to be your own man to be perceived as a leader. Beshear was, Cameron wasn’t.

3.) Incumbents have several major advantages that challengers do not enjoy: an easier time setting the tone of/framing the narrative, free media coverage, fundraising networks, and the ability to brand themselves as their own men. (Incumbent GOP governors in 2022 did extremely well even on what was an overall abysmal night, even those who were attacked on abortion. This may have had something to do with Reeves' win as well.)

4.) Democrats approach elections and campaigns the same way they would approach a military campaign. The GOP thinks it can defy those rules with a non-traditional, non-methodological, non-chirurgical "enthusiasm" model but it just doesn’t work, especially when no one generating said enthusiasm is on the ballot. Result: Democrats win (nearly) everywhere they actually try, underperform elsewhere.

[xavier110]

My takeaway: much is said about Dems’ fragile and schizophrenic coalition, but the Rs’ coalition may be even weaker. As the GOP has transformed into a Know Nothing populist party, they have traded formerly R-leaning educated suburban professionals who vote in most elections in favor of poorer, less educated folks who vote every four years. I’m not sure if this is a Trump thing either and more that they just show up for presidential elections.

Also, while I think the importance of policy is often overstated, economic populism plus right-wing social hysteria is probably the worst political platform to adopt in the US, where most folks are memes of social libs, econ cons. The GOP is in a pickle, especially when abortion still looms large and blue-trending well-off educated folks are turned off by the populist streak.

[John Dule]

Any poll that has Trump leading massively is absolute garbage. The end

It might be wishful thinking, but I do think it's possible that some pollsters overcorrected after 2016/2020 and are now being deliberately bullish on Trump with their sampling.

[heatcharger]

Most people woke up this morning and didn’t even know these elections happened.

[ottermax]

From a Democratic perspective I'm very wary of last night's results (even though I'm thrilled with the outcomes).

1. Clearly Dobbs and Trumpism have flipped the traditional script for non-Presidential elections in Northern states and more white areas. Where White voters make up the main base outside the South we have seen Democrats win again and again in special elections, 2022, and now in 2023. High-propensity white voters are mobilized by abortion and to a lesser extent have switched from being loyal to the GOP now that Trump has firmly taken over the party.

2. Turnout was terrible, especially in Black and Latino areas. I am curious to look at the Virginia results in detail as it doesn't appear this actually affected results there, nor in Mississippi where Presley appears to have improved Black turnout compared to 2019, but I was deeply concerned by the NYC results where Democrats lost a seat in the Bronx - which can only be attributed to turnout.

I'm deeply worried that Democrats will ignore the warning signs about turnout and be shocked and confused when Trump turns out his base and then wins throughout the Sun Belt in 2024. Something needs to be done to change turnout and the work must begin today.

[It’s so Joever]

Polling is pretty good actually.

[Tintrlvr]

It's the same as the takeaway from 2022: when both parties try really hard in a race, Democrats keep winning and often pretty comfortably, even though when neither side is trying as hard the national environment is actually quite Republican-favorable. This is the way you reconcile the astounding victories for Beshear and McCaffery with the state legislative stuff in VA/NJ/NYC/NH/MA. (Note that Democrats did do well enough to flip the Virginia House -- and I think also the New Hampshire House although I might have lost track of vacancies there -- but not better.)

The New Hampshire House is now 198R-197D-3I with two remaining vacancies to be filled by year-end. Two of the independents are ex-Democrats and one is an ex-Republican. One of the ex-Democrats (Shaun Filiault) left because he was making various deals with the Republicans (he represents Keene so is guaranteed to be out at the next election unless he comes back around). The other ex-Democrat (Maria Perez) I can't find anything about why she left the party, just that she did. The ex-Republican (Dan Hynes) left the Republicans because he thought they were "too liberal" (lol).

So very up-in-the-air. I think Filiault would probably vote for Democratic leadership if there were otherwise a tie, unclear about Perez. Hynes would vote for Republican leadership. Which means the vacancies will decide control. Both vacancies are in Coos County, with one being ex-Republican and the other ex-Democratic but probably either could be won by either party.

[Ferguson97]

Republicans need to stop taking about issues that make them sound insane and evil.

If they must focus on cultural issues, stop taking about abortion and LGBT stuff. Talk more about crime and immigration.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Campaigns matter, and Democrats are excelling at them lately with abortion as a focus for their message. That's why Biden is still in serious contention, and always has been since last year.

[Tekken_Guy]

From a Democratic perspective I'm very wary of last night's results (even though I'm thrilled with the outcomes).

1. Clearly Dobbs and Trumpism have flipped the traditional script for non-Presidential elections in Northern states and more white areas. Where White voters make up the main base outside the South we have seen Democrats win again and again in special elections, 2022, and now in 2023. High-propensity white voters are mobilized by abortion and to a lesser extent have switched from being loyal to the GOP now that Trump has firmly taken over the party.

2. Turnout was terrible, especially in Black and Latino areas. I am curious to look at the Virginia results in detail as it doesn't appear this actually affected results there, nor in Mississippi where Presley appears to have improved Black turnout compared to 2019, but I was deeply concerned by the NYC results where Democrats lost a seat in the Bronx - which can only be attributed to turnout.

I'm deeply worried that Democrats will ignore the warning signs about turnout and be shocked and confused when Trump turns out his base and then wins throughout the Sun Belt in 2024. Something needs to be done to change turnout and the work must begin today.

What battleground states will this turnout issue actually affect the election results?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Here are the lessons I think we all should take away from last night:

1. Voters do not care about the culture wars. Nobody is entering a polling booth and voting Republican because teachers are asking students their pronouns in school. This is evident in all of the Moms for Liberty losses that we just witnessed.

2. The suburbs are still trending leftward and the GOP brand there is dead for the foreseeable future.

3. If a governor is popular, they will win reelection.

4. Predictions of the VA GOP's 'revival" were clearly premature and 2021 was likely a fluke.

5. Abortion remains a very salient issue and is going to remain that way for a long time.

6. Voters aren't hot on Biden but they hate the Republicans.

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

From a Democratic perspective I'm very wary of last night's results (even though I'm thrilled with the outcomes).

1. Clearly Dobbs and Trumpism have flipped the traditional script for non-Presidential elections in Northern states and more white areas. Where White voters make up the main base outside the South we have seen Democrats win again and again in special elections, 2022, and now in 2023. High-propensity white voters are mobilized by abortion and to a lesser extent have switched from being loyal to the GOP now that Trump has firmly taken over the party.

2. Turnout was terrible, especially in Black and Latino areas. I am curious to look at the Virginia results in detail as it doesn't appear this actually affected results there, nor in Mississippi where Presley appears to have improved Black turnout compared to 2019, but I was deeply concerned by the NYC results where Democrats lost a seat in the Bronx - which can only be attributed to turnout.

I'm deeply worried that Democrats will ignore the warning signs about turnout and be shocked and confused when Trump turns out his base and then wins throughout the Sun Belt in 2024. Something needs to be done to change turnout and the work must begin today.

What battleground states will this turnout issue actually affect the election results?

Certainly NV at least, given how small the state is and how unusually R the recent NYT/Siena poll was.

[ProgressiveModerate]

From a Democratic perspective I'm very wary of last night's results (even though I'm thrilled with the outcomes).

1. Clearly Dobbs and Trumpism have flipped the traditional script for non-Presidential elections in Northern states and more white areas. Where White voters make up the main base outside the South we have seen Democrats win again and again in special elections, 2022, and now in 2023. High-propensity white voters are mobilized by abortion and to a lesser extent have switched from being loyal to the GOP now that Trump has firmly taken over the party.

2. Turnout was terrible, especially in Black and Latino areas. I am curious to look at the Virginia results in detail as it doesn't appear this actually affected results there, nor in Mississippi where Presley appears to have improved Black turnout compared to 2019, but I was deeply concerned by the NYC results where Democrats lost a seat in the Bronx - which can only be attributed to turnout.

I'm deeply worried that Democrats will ignore the warning signs about turnout and be shocked and confused when Trump turns out his base and then wins throughout the Sun Belt in 2024. Something needs to be done to change turnout and the work must begin today.

What battleground states will this turnout issue actually affect the election results?

It could impact all battleground states to some extent, but I'd expect a disproportionate impact in states where Dems heavily rely on non-white voters like Nevada.

[Reactionary Libertarian]

Here are the lessons I think we all should take away from last night:

1. Voters do not care about the culture wars. Nobody is entering a polling booth and voting Republican because teachers are asking students their pronouns in school.

2. The suburbs are still trending leftward and the GOP brand there is dead for the foreseeable future.

3. If a governor is popular, they will win reelection.

4. Predictions of the VA GOP's 'revival" were clearly premature and 2021 was likely a fluke.

5. Abortion remains a very salient issue and is going to remain that way for a long time.

6. Voters aren't hot on Biden but they hate the Republicans.

The GOP actually did quite well in the Virginia elections, but it’s still a D+10 state. They just couldn’t overcome that. Plus abortion, of course.

[jvmh2009]

Any poll that has Trump leading massively is absolute garbage. The end

I don't necessarily think the polls are garbage, I just don't think the electorate is quite right yet. Look at every cygnal poll for example... it shows a biden plus 1.5 race but the electorate they used used a Trump 52.5-47.5 biden 2020 vote. Could this be the electorate next year? Sure but current real world elections aren't indicating this. Cygnal is not the only one doing this either.... many others are using a very republican electorate and it reminds me of the post 2018 polls for the 2020 election. The pollsters thought there would be a 9 point democrat electorate advantage based off of 2018 midterms which led to crazy 12 point biden advantages at the end of 2019. After a r leaning to even midterm, we now have r leaning to even presidential results.