Which election result from today would most foreshadow what will happen 2024

[OSR stands with Israel]

My guess if MS flips then it’s very bad news for the GOP for 24 and if the VA senate flips its very bad news for the Dems in 24

[Ferguson97]

The only result that would make me think something has fundamentally changed is Issue 1 failing in Ohio. Anything else would either be a continuation of the status quo, or could be explained by local factors.

[Person Man]

My guess if MS flips then it’s very bad news for the GOP for 24 and if the VA senate flips its very bad news for the Dems in 24

I would say if that happens, it probably is save to assume that MN,NH,NM,VA are tossup and the big 6 are Lean R. Conversely, it could mean that they are Lean D and FL,OH,NC,TX and maybe IA and MO are not safe and maybe not Likely R.

[Person Man]

The only result that would make me think something has fundamentally changed is Issue 1 failing in Ohio. Anything else would either be a continuation of the status quo, or could be explained by local factors.

In order for Republicans to win the senate in VA, they need to win statewide by 5. I think this and Mississippi changes the ball game. Abortion failing or passing by a large margin probably changes things. It might put Florida in contention and shore up Arizona.

[oldtimer]

Republican sweep: Very good for Republicans
Democrat sweep: Very good for Democrats

Republicans losing only 1 race: Good for Republicans
Democrats losing only 1 race: Good for Democrats

Republicans winning only Governor races: useless.
Democrats winning only Governor races: useless.

Each party wins one state legislature one governor race: mixed bag.

[Oryxslayer]

Theres really only worst case scenarios for partisans: Losing VA Senate and the OH initiatives for Dems, Losing MS Gov and coming close to or losing other row offices for the GOP. Anywhere in between would suggest just a holding pattern, and everything is so idiosyncratically local that that it has little to offer for the national mood.

But while the contests themselves offer little insight the margins certainly can, especially if they all point in one way.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I feel like virtually none of them mean anything for a Trump vs Biden. Like if Rs win the VA House and Senate all it says, is moderate Republicans are still able to capture Virgnia in off years. It doesn't mean Trump can brute force himself a win in a state that voted against him twice by a good margin.

[Senator Incitatus]

Will be interested to see how less populous Hispanic and black parts of New Jersey, like Passaic, vote. I expect most gains with minorities are specific to Trump, but there should be at least some spillover.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I feel like virtually none of them mean anything for a Trump vs Biden. Like if Rs win the VA House and Senate all it says, is moderate Republicans are still able to capture Virgnia in off years. It doesn't mean Trump can brute force himself a win in a state that voted against him twice by a good margin.

Well keep in mind state legislative candidates are far less known by the public than major statewide candidates are and with no statewide election in VA this year , the legislative elections are close to as generic R vs Generic D as you can get . Given that republicans need to win statewide by 5 to take the VA senate , a win for the GOP would mean that democrats are losing ground in the suburbs and in the perception game .

[Tekken_Guy]

KY-GOV seems to be something of a precursor to NC-GOV next year given the similar candidate dynamics (pragmatic White Democrat who got his start as a state AG vs. polarizing Black GOP row officer counting on his state’s partisan lean to carry him to victory) but tells us little about Trump vs. Biden, with Beshear/Trump and Cameron/Biden both realistic outcomes.

[Tekken_Guy]

I feel like virtually none of them mean anything for a Trump vs Biden. Like if Rs win the VA House and Senate all it says, is moderate Republicans are still able to capture Virgnia in off years. It doesn't mean Trump can brute force himself a win in a state that voted against him twice by a good margin.

Republicans winning the VA senate may indicate Trump’s in good shape in Georgia, at least.

[Spectator]

KY-GOV seems to be something of a precursor to NC-GOV next year given the similar candidate dynamics (pragmatic White Democrat who got his start as a state AG vs. polarizing Black GOP row officer counting on his state’s partisan lean to carry him to victory) but tells us little about Trump vs. Biden, with Beshear/Trump and Cameron/Biden both realistic outcomes.

Kinda insulting to compare Cameron to Robinson when Cameron doesn’t have anywhere near the vulnerabilities Robinson does.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

None of them barring a major surprise, but it will for shadow the conventional wisdom for the next few months

[It’s so Joever]

Virginia.

[Alben Barkley]

Catastrophic for Dems: Losing Ohio abortion measure (already looks highly unlikely based on exit polls)

Bad for Dems: Losing VA Senate

Good for Dems: Holding KY and/or flipping VA House

Great for Dems: Winning MS Gov

And the reverse is basically true for Republicans.

[Pericles]

If state legislative results across multiple states go one way, that's indicative.