TimTurner/Punxsutawney Phil 39,000 post AMA

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This is my 39,001st post. Ask away.

[Rand]

How scared were you when Bill Murray drove you off that cliff?

[retromike22]

What are your favorite things to do in Dallas?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

How scared were you when Bill Murray drove you off that cliff?

It was a rollercoaster ride. Amd it felt as such as well.

[Meclazine for Israel]

You know we are friends and that will not change.

But a serious question.

Has your life changed since October 7 ?

[BigZuck08]

Thoughts on what happened last night?

[President Johnson]

Dou have have an relation to Prussia or Germany because of the avatar?

Didn't you say you write novels? If so, what kind of novels?

[OSR stands with Israel]

1. As someone who has a Prussian Avatar , do you have a positive opinion of Prussia overall and if so why . Also do you think it was a mistake for it to be dismantled post WW2

2. What’s the last election you’d support the GOP nominee

3. What’s your favorite Dallas based sports team

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What are your favorite things to do in Dallas?

We have a good restaurant scene, nice ethnic stores, wonderful SMEs. The parks are nice. I used to think Dealey Plaza was so interesting (it really isn't to me anymore), but the Margaret Hunt Hill Bridge is pretty nice looking. Also, and this is not a good place to have to be, but we have a decent variety of hospitals. So it's good they exist, though I can't vouch for them being particularly cheap.
There was also this time I went to a hotel in Downtown Dallas along with family back in, probably, 2017. Rare experience, but looking out the windows and seeing the skyline was a nice thing to be able to do, and stuff like that are fun.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

You know we are friends and that will not change.

But a serious question.

Has your life changed since October 7 ?

Israel and Palestine and what it says about human nature, group mentalities, and conflict have been things I've really thought about, especially as it interplays with what I've written over the years. I'm not someone who had a loved one who was brutally murdered im a kibbutz, I'm not someone who has suffered because of Gaza being penned in by the policies of the Israelis and directly controlled by a thuggish gang. In that sense I'm deeply privileged. There's not a minute I have personally feared for my life in that time period. But in the end the psychology of permanent war deeply fascinates me and horrifies me. Reflecting on it all, very ugly forces are at play, us vs them playing out on a large scale, it does worry me a bit, especially with how this has gotten somewhat exported overseas (Jewish tourists killed in Egypt by a policeman, a Palestinian boy killed by his landlord, just two examples). It activates the managerial side of my brain and makes me worry if the West had more national leaders treating these issues in an unhinged way for narrow political gain. Regardless of whichever side said leaders took.

It also makes me really glad we had Bush on September 11th over someone of more reckless demeanor. Just the immediate aftermath, it really made a difference for people like young me. Reportedly my local mosque was firebombed...having someone able to effectively ride and control the inevitable horse of public outrage in such circumstances really makes a difference. Israel needs someone like that, because an Israel willing to help de-escalate would help peace in the region. Bibi is way better than Smotrich or Ben Gvir. Sure he's corrupt, but at least he isn't someone who is putting Jews and Muslims alike at risk on same level. An Israel run by Ben Gvir or Smotrich horrifies me. Give me a crook willing to cut deals and maintain some stability over a radical crazy any day. Bibi's instincts are being neutralized because he has lost authority in his own camp.

And for the safety of Jews in the region, for the safety of Arabs and Muslims...for the love of God, have the guy running this state be a man who won't plunge communal relations into a hell from which it may not for a long time return. There must never be an entity dominating the Holy Land that cracks down on the Jewish community's rightful expectations of peace and security, but at the same time, peaceful co-existence is the ONLY real way forward and from the river-to-the-sea fantasies ought to be rejected completely. And if groups that have the numbers to be key swing groups are those who want such crazy policies, and they get such power, it will be just painful for everyone, including Jewish settlers, because they will make the pressure only stronger and stronger with time and that WILL have consequences, consequences they have overlooked in their hubris. Israelis dominate the Holy Land, and the choices of Israelis will decide the future of the Holy Land, not too unlike the choices of the Japanese government of the 30s, which in time gained a strong siege mentality, decided the future of East Asia in the 1930s. Israel's got problems with political radicalism and has done so for decades. Realpolitik and pragmatism are the way out and the fixation of both sides on the past does no favors for them. Whether or not who had what in 1800 or 1900 followed a certain God or whatever... It's emotive, but I would like it if there was more focus on the problems of today.

That's even bigger of a problem on the Arab side of this conflict (from-the-river-to-the-sea speaks to this, among other things), but it's also a strong influence on settlers to whom the entire Holy Land is not just Jewish but Jewish only. I have nothing against settlers per se, but settlers here are just gasoline on the fire imo. Stolen land isn't too persuasive to me of an argument, but over two-third of municipalities in the country won't even allow Arabs as residents, and they got rid of Arab as a national language years ago by now. The Israeli state can be singularly Jewish, or it can have all the Holy Land. Not both. I didn't realize just how strong of a hand settler radicalism was, but now I am kind of worried for Jews and Arabs alike who will face the threat of this radicalism roaring its ugly head. Political stability and measured policy from Tel Aviv is critical yet demographic reality makes it probably harder over time, not easier. A human mosaic in the Holy Land has many colors...it's not just blue, or white.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Very well written.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Dou have have an relation to Prussia or Germany because of the avatar?

Didn't you say you write novels? If so, what kind of novels?

No German blood that I'm aware of. But I do have very long-running Teutophile tendencies and German is probably the language I am third best in. (Japanese comes in second, and I'm a simple Japanese speaker. シンプル日本語話せませ。ドイツの歴史読む楽しいです。And English is basically my mother tongue.)
I am a writer of military fiction. Considering my grandfather is hugely into military and history and that sort of thing, I likely got it from him.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Thoughts on what happened last night?

Well, the November elections this year told us a few things.
1. Compromise matters and being seen as moderate matters. Abortion really is the GOP's "defund the police" and it'd be good if things got more reasonable in that direction. The principle behind the people who say they don't support abortion in any circumstances feels respectable to me (though I've never held that position, I understand it), but that's just not viable policy. Half a loaf is better than none.

2. Beshear won rather easily, this is testament to the hard work he's done for the state and his tact. A shame Reeves won, but MS was always going to be an uphill battle.

3. It can't be highlighted enough that referendums reflect different alignments than general elections do. Barely a decade and a half ago California voted to ban same-sex marriage while voting for Obama by 24 points...Ds in CA and Rs in OH have both seen adverse constitutional amendments passed by voters.

4. People don't necessarily vote on the same issues in federal and state level. Beshear also probably profited from the relative weakness of the KY governor's mansion as well, because it meant Rs had an easier time voting for him knowing the solidly R legislature could just overrule his vetoes with simple majorities.

[Fuzzy Bear]

How DOES peaceful coexistence come about in the whole of The Holy Land when none of the Palestinian governing authorities really don't acknowledge Israel's right to exist by ANY set of borders? Hamas certainly doesn't and the Palestinian Authority really hasn't. 

If I'm wrong about these assumptions, can you show me where the Palestinian Authority has at least conceded the right of Israel to exist within SOME set of borders?  I may have missed something over time, but I really have never seen any of the quarreling parties here acknowledge an explicit right of Israel to exist.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

How DOES peaceful coexistence come about in the whole of The Holy Land when none of the Palestinian governing authorities really don't acknowledge Israel's right to exist by ANY set of borders? Hamas certainly doesn't and the Palestinian Authority really hasn't.  

If I'm wrong about these assumptions, can you show me where the Palestinian Authority has at least conceded the right of Israel to exist within SOME set of borders?  I may have missed something over time, but I really have never seen any of the quarreling parties here acknowledge an explicit right of Israel to exist.

In practice, peaceful co-existence in one entity (or two, or three) just isn't feasible as things currently are, so I'm fine with recognition being an unresolved issue. It can't be helped. What's most needed short-term is lowering the temperature (hot and getting hotter most significantly due to settler violence in the West Bank). The area itself is broken at the moment, and you can't let the perfect be the enemy of the good.

The long-term won't be helped if things continue to slide further into radicalism. Replace Bibi with Ben Gvir and Hamas with PIJ (Palestinian Islamic Jihad) and that's what is going to happen if we don't place outer bounds on this. The PA isn't an entity I think of as powerful at this point, it's most like a intermediary between the Israelis and the West Bank population than a mighty force in its own right.

I don't think I can know of some magic elegant way to solve the tensions between Israelis and Palestinians (no one can), and the bed in which they are in is the joint production of both groups, particularly the leaders. When you pit an (understandable) impulse to seek to protect the Jewish people from ever undergoing another Holocaust, and the Nakba and the resentments Israeli policies unnecessarily create in Arabs in the region, you create hard attitudes. Any long-term peace will likely either be completely one-sided (and Israelis are far closer to having such a victory, Palestine's now down to a hundred or so bantustans and a coastal strip controlled indirectly by Israel thanks to restrictions on travel, and geography) or both sides will have to make painful compromises. Imo both sides are shooting too high. The most likely long-term resolution is probably nowhere near noted recognition at the moment and have to rise organically in a fertile environment. Most likely Arabs will have to swallow a lot of their sense of pride - it's not like they've much more to lose. But that's not presently in the offing, feelings are just too high.

Simply recognizing Israel existing in some way would be a step forward and Israel's lack of trust is well-founded, but it should also understand it has the agency to do more than just, well, push outwards and take more. Israel helped create this mess; and Israel can help fix it. But their political culture, just like the Palestinian one, is a roadblock for peace, and this is true clearly since the mid-1990s. While Hamas might want to see itself as a peer to Israel, it just isn't. Israel's still in the driver's seat.

All in all, Israel has special rights, but also special responsibilities, so it doesn't have to play by the same rules. Hamas is a gang with territory, the PA is effectively a colonial authority, neither really deserve to be considered a peer to Israel. In this broader context, what Palestinian entities do and don't recognize doesn't amount to too much, Palestinians are a partially conquered people and Israel shouldn't wait or stop doing something just because Palestinians may or may not want it. Israel can choose, validly, to be a Jewish state; but political entities representing non-Jews aren't necessarily obliged to get behind how this is executed. Somewhere there's a balance between "the Jewish people deserve a safe harbor" and "non-Jews in the Holy Land have the right to be there too". It's fundamentally up to Israel to get that balance right. If it does, then these are less two separate goals and are even complementary. But the majority has other ideas...

[Mr. Smith]

Have you ever considered Russian or Korean or Spanish to the linguistic repertoire?

[Sumner 1868]

How would you vote if your choices were Rebecca Latimer Felton v. Strom Thurmond v. Jesse Helms?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

1. As someone who has a Prussian Avatar , do you have a positive opinion of Prussia overall and if so why . Also do you think it was a mistake for it to be dismantled post WW2

2. What’s the last election you’d support the GOP nominee

3. What’s your favorite Dallas based sports team

1.  Probably have a slightly positive opinion of Prussia compared to the time period as a whole, for two main reasons: 1. it was ahead of the curve on religious toleration, 2. my Teutophilia biasing me. I also like the whole Prussian virtues thing, even if concepts like duty and all that stuff are far from owned by Prussia obviously. But the main thing I get from Prussia is the meme stuff. Pickelhaube! 1871% efficiency. Etc. It's a meme, but a fun meme. I've always been a duty-driven person (military songs are even part of how I motivate myself), that plays a role here too.

Of course, the two world wars destroyed a lot of things. Imo, the dismantling of Prussia when looked at as part of the broad picture, fits with the havoc, dislocation, and destruction of life that the world wars brought...in that it's not crazy the Allies disbanded it, par for course for the time. I do think it's hamfisted and rather silly some of the stuff that got pushed at the time (like seeing Prussian militarism as some uniquely evil thing for its time) but let's not forget that Germany had helped drag Europe into the war and it paid the price for it. When you're down, for your history to get dragged in the mud like that, if and when the victorious powers please, goes with the territory. All in all it's a shame it took two bloody wars and mass ethnic cleansing etching a legacy of blood shed from past Europeans on the current ethnic map of Europe for us to get the Europe we have today too, but history is what it is.

2. With hindsight? 1976, as Ford made a lot of right calls and I'd be willing to reward him for that (including for the Nixon pardon). Carter was also in retrospect not the best man to take the White House at the time either, so that helps make the choice easier.

Without hindsight? 1956, probably. Because of the Suez crisis. Before that, perhaps 1904, because I would very likely vote for TR that year. (No question, I'd have voted for Wilson twice, with or without hindsight, my state would be safe Wilson anyway)

3. Hmm, hard pick, I like them roughly equally. If forced to choose, Cowboys I suppose.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Have you ever considered Russian or Korean or Spanish to the linguistic repertoire?

Russian is interesting but not something I have much ability to learn atm. Korean is something I'm learning more of by virtue of my work, but Japanese has always been more important on that front. Hanja are the best part of the language for me as I'm very familiar with Chinese characters and the main reasons I like kanji (better than endless strings of words I don't easily understand in phonetic scripts and also akin to a set of signposts guiding you etc.) hold even more firmly in Korean. Hangul are presently the only comprehensible text in the Korean language for me, though I'm sure if I actually tried to learn hangul it would be possible. One upside for Korean is its lower amount of homophones than Japanese or Chinese, so there's that.
漢字는 훌륭하다.
Atm Korean might be no. 5 or no. 6 or so for me for "undivided attention", behind at least German, Arabic, and probably Chinese (which I also work with). The order in which those three were named is not necessarily the order I would do them. In this context Spanish and Chinese are interchangeable.
Of course, if I was ever moving overseas then whatever the local lingua franca is would suddenly appear on this list as well. I would likely absorb said language by osmosis anyway.
I know Spanish pronunciation well and have some understanding of Spanish. I read Spanish labels (habit for perhaps even 70% of my life). Spanish is probably my my third language currently, in terms of comprehension. But vocabulary is an issue(even is in Japanese and that's the language I'm best at leaving aside English) and I'm not able to form sentences well at all. Besides some set phrases, anyway. "Muy estupido" which I have used multiple times on Atlas being one such example.
Could I learn Spanish on a deeper level? Yes. Dora the Explorer, the fact Spanish is the second language of the United States, and my interest in language learning have given me an automatic level that isn't fluent but also isn't absolute zero.
When I'm able to speak Japanese to Japanese people in just Japanese (I've been studying for about three years or so at this point*), I'm likely going to be comfortable shifting the immersion into some other language, though my Oriental interest is unlikely to ever completely fade.
*=日本語勉強以来2020年(にほんごべんきょういらい2020にん) "Nihongo benkyou irai 2020-nin/I have been studying Japanese since 2020" is a term I've said many times at this point when introducing myself to Japanese people online, I've lost track of how much I've said it, not like I've ever tried.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

How would you vote if your choices were Rebecca Latimer Felton v. Strom Thurmond v. Jesse Helms?

If George Wallace was in here I'd happily vote for him as I see him more as an opportunist than anything else.
Maybe Felton, because the non-race-driven parts of her career look better than the other two's.