Rate Andy Beshear’s chances of being re-elected

[Tekken_Guy]

Rate Andy Beshear’s chances of being re-elected

[EastwoodS]

55%

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

35%

[SnowLabrador]

25%.

[Mr. Smith]

55%

[Xing]

55-60%.

[Tekken_Guy]

25%.

Wasn’t it like 40% the day the Emerson poll came out?

[BigZuck08]

60-70%

[Roll Roons]

I'd say around 65%. It's definitely not out of the question that he loses, but I would have needed more evidence beyond that one Emerson poll to actually consider it a pure tossup or call him the underdog.

I really wish Mason-Dixon had polled this one. Seems like they haven't done much at all in the past couple years.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Using the midpoint of each range as an estimate (i.e. a vote in 50-60% = 55%) the current poll results average out to a 58% chance of Beshear winning.

[Progressive Pessimist]

65%.

In spite of the Emerson poll suggesting movement from a blatant outlier, I don't think much significantly has actually changed the race outside of Republicans who may have considered voting for Beshear, coalescing around Cameron at the last minute. I don't think that will be enough though.

Beshear will probably clean up with Democrats and Independents, especially in the Lexington and Louisville areas, while still getting a decent number of Republicans in other areas too. And all indications suggest that he is running a good campaign that focuses on his strengths in local and state issues that will keep him dissassociated enough from Biden and the worldwide political climate.

It probably would have taken a major gaffe or scandal to dislodge Beshear, if he does win. The only thing I'm not confident anymore is how close or wide the margin will be. I certainly think Cameron has a floor of 47 or 48%.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

66.6666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666667%

[GeorgiaModerate]

^ There is such a thing as too much precision.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

74.362937535453648920917366281863652618836355271772735318388489019387374848572772917376782927484929273747

[EastwoodS]

If ED turnout is 1.4 million or more his chances duck under 50%, imo. I think early vote is Beshear of +20. ED will be like 5-7% Cameron. Even though the city early vote is low, that doesn’t mean liberal rural voters didn’t turnout too.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

25%.

Hi

[Arizona Iced Tea]

25%.

Hi

SnowLabrador is the kiss of death to Republican chances.