What county results will give us an idea who wins in Kentucky?

[Tekken_Guy]

What county results in Kentucky will give us an idea as to who wins in the state?

[EastwoodS]

Madison county KY

[TML]

According to a piece published by the Daily Kos a few days before the 2019 election, the key counties in KY are Jefferson, Fayette, Kenton, Boone, Warren, Daviess, Hardin, and Campbell. However, the piece also noted that margins in rural counties matter as well (it mentioned counties like McCracken and Pike as a couple of examples of representative rural counties), so those places should also be watched to see whether or not margins there are anywhere near margins achieved by Trump at the presidential level.

[ReallySuper]

yeah i think madison co. is probably the best bellwether county for ky gov, as it will be close and important to either candidate's path to victory--so important that cameron even launched his general election campaign there (although tbh i can imagine a scenario for either one to lose madison co. and still win). i think nelson and boyle co. will also be good indicators; if beshear wins both then he wins statewide. if beshear wins daviess it's absolutely over for cameron (although given its in the central time zone, by the time it would be called for beshear it would probably already be clear that he won). if cameron flips back the northern kentucky counties beshear won in 2019 then the race is probably over too.

[Mr. Smith]

Elliott!

[Xing]

In addition to Madison, I’d say that Scott and Bourbon are worth watching, as well as the margins in Campbell and Kenton (I’d expect Beshear to win both again.)