So no thread so far on LA's 2024 elections; we have quite a few interesting races.
LA County Board of Supervisors
Kathryn Barger the only Republican on the board, is up for reelection She has been immensely popular with organized labor for a Republican and has won by landslides in her previously Biden+10 district, but now because of redistricting her seat got 10 points bluer and is now Biden +20 and she has two strong opponents. Chris Holden, a state assembly member with lots of party establishment backing, and DSA mayor of Burbank Konstantine Anthony, who is a great speaker but recently ran into a bit of controversy over being spanked at a drag bingo event, Konstantine, essentially has the entire LA left united behind him. Konstantine is probably going to do well in Burbank and the arts districts, which were recently added to District 5 and have been some of the most progressive parts of Los Angeles. But its just a question of whether or not they'll be able to hold Barger below 50% and which one will come in second.
The fourth district is also an interesting race; Janice Hahn is being challenged by controversial former sheriff Alex Villanueva. Alex is running as a Democrat despite being a frequent guest on Fox News and endorsing the recall of Newsom as well as Larry Elder. The fourth district is solidly democratic, but Alex could put together an odd coalition of Republicans and Hispanics and potentially pose a threat to Hahn, though I'd say she's likely the heavy favorite going into this race.
City Council
CD 2 is an open race, with City Council president Paul Krekorian being term-limited. State Rep. Adrian Nazarian was seen as the heavy favorite going into this race, but insurgent candidate Jillian Burgos has been racking up impressive endorsements from Stonewall Democratic Club, Konstantine Anthony, and controller Kenneth Meija and managed to block Nazarian from receiving the county party's endorsement last week. Another progressive in the race is John Paul Bird, who has outraised Jillian so far but hasn't had any major organizations or elected officials back him publicly yet.
CD 4
DSA-backed incumbent Nithya Raman faces a tough reelection bid. Her district is a lot more moderate now than the one she narrowly won in 2020 against David Ryu as a result of the intentional gerrymandering revealed in the LA Fed tapes. Her top opponent is Ethan Weaver, who has raised a significant amount of money and has been backed by several local elected officials and organizations. This race will likely be very close, and its quite possible Nithya loses the race.
CD 10
Incumbent councilwoman Heather Hutt faces a rough campaign; she was appointed last year following the resignation of MRT. Hutt was supposed to be a caretaker for this seat, but her appointment was controversially put through by former council President Nury Martinez. Hutt is viewed as a weak incumbent and is being challenged by Assemblyman Reggie Jones Sawyer as well as five other candidates. Two of whom are very active in progressive organizing circles: Aura Vazques, who was chair of DSA's sustainability committee, and pastor Eddie Anderson, who has been active with the BLM LA. I've met both of them, and Eddie is a very powerful and moving speaker, and Aura's understanding and grasp of the issues are very impressive. However, breaking through into the top two with Reggie and Hutt is likely going to be a very difficult task.
CD 12
CD 12 is the most conservative district in Los Angeles. Biden won it by more than 10 points, but it is still the most Republican district in the city. Rick Caruso got over 60% of the vote. Here, the Democrats are very conservative. Incumbent John Lee was first extremely narrowly elected as a Republican in a special election and then narrowly reelected as an independent the next year. Now John Lee is in legal trouble (
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2023-10-02/councilmember-john-lee-los-angeles-ethics-commission-accusations), and he has a new opponent, Serena Oberstein, who has the backing of several local Democratic officials. Lee is definitely in for a close race and may go down, especially with presidential turnout.
CD 14
The incumbent KDL is in huge trouble. KDL has remained in public office despite a year of public outcry demanding his resignation after the release of the LA fed tapes, where KDL, Nury Martinzes, and Gill Cedillo made several racist comments as they plotted to draw maps that would disenfranchise renters and black voters.
https://knock-la.com/nury-martinez-city-council-president-leaked-racist-audio/ KDL now has extremely negative approval ratings and is far below water, but is still attempting to run for reelection. He faces his former best friend, Assemblymember Miguel Santiago, Assemblymember Wendy Carillo, who was just arrested last night for a DUI (
https://abc7.com/wendy-carrillo-arrested-dui-car-crash/14008777/), and DSA-backed attorney Ysabel Jurado. As well as PSL-backed Lalo Vargas.
At this point, its possible KDL doesn't even make the general He still has somewhat of a base in boyle heights, but it remains to be seen if that will be enough. I thought that the race was probably going to end up being Carillo vs. Santiago in the end, but Carillo's DUI may significantly damage her campaign. Jurado has been racking up big endorsements these last few weeks as well, and she will likely do well, but Lalo may play spoiler and bite into her vote share. He's a very good speaker, and he has a dedicated team doing door-knocking for him across the district.
The DA race is also interesting. George Gascon has received a ton of negative press and has been the right's boogeyman in LA for several years. He's been outraised by his opponent already, but Gascon's campaign hasn't really kicked into high gear yet. Despite all the fear mongering about Gascon's left-wing policies, crime has actually gone down since he took office, which is a fact I'm sure he will lean into.
There are also quite a few state assembly races that are going to be competitive since so many legislators are running for local office this year, but I don't feel like writing about them now, so tell me your thoughts on how these races will develop. Im honestly the most invested in CD 14 and BOS 5. I'm a big fan of Konstantine Anthony, and I want to see KDL go down for good as a former supporter of his who did campaign work for him. I felt especially betrayed by those tapes, and it makes me sick that he thinks he's entitled to another term in office after that.
