Who wins in Kentucky?

[Tekken_Guy]

Who do you think will win in Kentucky?

[Progressive Pessimist]

Still Beshear. The big question is going to be how big or small of a victory it will be, and whether that could have been reversed, or even means anything in the grander scheme of things.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Beshear by a Laura Kelly/JBE margin.

[S019]

It will be very close, but I'm going to stick with Cameron. I don't know if Beshear's incumbency can overcome the fact that he isn't facing a deeply hated opponent.

[Progressive Pessimist]

It will be very close, but I'm going to stick with Cameron. I don't know if Beshear's incumbency can overcome the fact that he isn't facing a deeply hated opponent.

Beshear isn't fiercely hated though. Bevin was, and still almost won as an incumbent.

[Xing]

Still going to say Beshear (really don’t want to be wrong a 3rd time), though narrowly.

[KYRockefeller]

I still think Beshear wins.  If he loses, I would think the recent foreign policy events, which have hurt Democrats standing with voters, may have played a role since national events can affect state races as Nixon's failed 1962 California gubernatorial bid in the midst of the Cuban Missile Crisis attests.

I don't think polling is giving any type of representative sample of where this race is.  But if Cameron is close, it reinforces my view that Ryan Quarles would've been a better challenger.

[Tekken_Guy]

I still think Beshear wins.  If he loses, I would think the recent foreign policy events, which have hurt Democrats standing with voters, may have played a role since national events can affect state races as Nixon's failed 1962 California gubernatorial bid in the midst of the Cuban Missile Crisis attests.

I don't think polling is giving any type of representative sample of where this race is.  But if Cameron is close, it reinforces my view that Ryan Quarles would've been a better challenger.

How has the Israel crisis hurt Democrats?

[oldkyhome]

This is subject to change but I’m still convinced Andy wins decisively. The energy is just not there for Cameron.

[wnwnwn]

He has good approval ratings. Why would people change what isn't broken to them?

[Mr.Phips]

Feeling Cameron in an upset.  2015 vibes here.

[TDAS04]

Beshear+3-4.

[BigSkyBob]

I still think Beshear wins.  If he loses, I would think the recent foreign policy events, which have hurt Democrats standing with voters, may have played a role since national events can affect state races as Nixon's failed 1962 California gubernatorial bid in the midst of the Cuban Missile Crisis attests.

I don't think polling is giving any type of representative sample of where this race is.  But if Cameron is close, it reinforces my view that Ryan Quarles would've been a better challenger.

How has the Israel crisis hurt Democrats?

Bashear has taken a nuanced view of Biden, who in turn takes a nuanced view of the squad, who in turn take a nuanced view of HAMAS. That would seem a hard one to make stick, but, the HAMAS war crimes have created a massive divide between the parties. The I-am-kinda-sorta-Republican-but-better-on-abortion campaign message of Bashear isn't going to work anymore.

[Utah Neolib]

Beshear +2, similar to KS-GOV 2022. Beshear’s a popular governor, and governors rarely lose with continually high popularity. I do think this race has tightened in the past week or two, but Cameron himself isn’t really doing anything spectacularly good to make this a flip. The one good poll we’ve seen so far that isn’t an internal is from Emerson and it’s showing either an outlier or the truth. Cameron could definitely pull this off, but it’d be more like being dragged across by a more Republican national environment than previously thought.

[KYRockefeller]

I still think Beshear wins.  If he loses, I would think the recent foreign policy events, which have hurt Democrats standing with voters, may have played a role since national events can affect state races as Nixon's failed 1962 California gubernatorial bid in the midst of the Cuban Missile Crisis attests.

I don't think polling is giving any type of representative sample of where this race is.  But if Cameron is close, it reinforces my view that Ryan Quarles would've been a better challenger.

How has the Israel crisis hurt Democrats?

Feeds the ongoing narrative of the Biden administration presiding over a world that's becoming more unstable.

[Mr. Smith]

Still Beshear. Wouldn't be surprised if it were Cameron eked out...but I suspect there's still enough goodwill left for Beshear...and Cameron hasn't exactly gone all out the way even Bevin did in 2015.

[EastwoodS]

Beshear but I’m really not confident in it

[SnowLabrador]

Cameron.

[Dave Hedgehog]

Cameron.

Same, I just have that feeling at the pit of my stomach that partisanship and nationalizing the race at a time when Biden's approvals are cratering again will bail him out in the end. I hope I'm wrong as this will be the ultimate case of people voting for a letter in front of a name rather than a candidate (really can't think of anything Cameron's said on the campaign trail other than bringing Biden up at any opportunity), but the state is so red federally that I just see the chips falling this way when all's said and done. I'm not convinced Laura Kelly would have won again if she'd been running in a Trump +26 as opposed to a Trump +15 state.

[EastwoodS]

Cameron.

Same, I just have that feeling at the pit of my stomach that partisanship and nationalizing the race at a time when Biden's approvals are cratering again will bail him out in the end. I hope I'm wrong as this will be the ultimate case of people voting for a letter in front of a name rather than a candidate (really can't think of anything Cameron's said on the campaign trail other than bringing Biden up at any opportunity), but the state is so red federally that I just see the chips falling this way when all's said and done. I'm not convinced Laura Kelly would have won again if she'd been running in a Trump +26 as opposed to a Trump +15 state.

He talked about ending the state income tax, which is hella based. But that’s it. Everything else was culture war nonsense.

[Tekken_Guy]

Cameron.

Will the race be close?

[SnowLabrador]

Cameron.

Will the race be close?

Does 5 points count as close?

[Tekken_Guy]

Cameron.

Will the race be close?

Does 5 points count as close?

Not really.

[Spectator]

Still Beshear since we don’t really have a precedent of a popular incumbent Governor losing since Ann Richards lost 29 years ago. But if any state were to break that trend, Kentucky is a solid bet given how red it has become.

[Tekken_Guy]

Still Beshear since we don’t really have a precedent of a popular incumbent Governor losing since Ann Richards lost 29 years ago. But if any state were to break that trend, Kentucky is a solid bet given how red it has become.

Bob Ehrlich was 18 years ago.