Is Beshear or Reeves more likely to win?

[Tekken_Guy]

Both are highly vulnerable and could easily lose on the same night. This shouldn’t be a hot take at all.

Is Tate Reeves really that vulnerable though? He has every so slight net positive approval ratings, but I feel like that should be more than enough in a racially polarized state like Mississipi. Yes, Brandon Presley is a good candidate but unlike Cameron the state's racial and significant polarization are headwinds for him.

I simply don’t buy the premise that MS is more "racially polarized" than it is "ideologically polarized" — it seems nonsensical to me. I feel like this lazy "inelastic Mississippi" discourse has totally warped people's brains. It’s poison.

I’m old enough to remember people (including on this forum) downplaying or outright dismissing JBE's prospects in LA in 2015 for the exact same reason.

The thing is Louisiana polarized a lot less recently. 2015 was only 7 years after they re-elected Mary Landrieu for Senate, and the LA Dems still enjoyed moderate support with white rural voters. Mississippi on the other hand has been locked out for Democrats for decades (nearly 35 years!). They lost their governorship and senate seats in the early 90's, and even Bill Clinton couldn't carry the state while he took LA. Louisiana is a lot more like Arkansas where Dems still had power outside the electoral college in the 2000's.

1. The GOP's double-digit LA loss came at the height of Obama's unpopularity in the Deep South. It can't be dismissed. You also bring up Mary Landrieu, yet leave out the fact that she had lost badly the year before. Federal =/= state elections.

2. While MS Dems have been locked out of the mansion for years (but not "since the early 90s" – revisit your history), they came very close in 2019, losing mostly because Rs effectively nationalized the race in the wake of the Trump impeachment hearings. Reeves also had way higher fav ratings four years ago. He's far more vulnerable today.

I'm not convinced by the dominant KY/MS narratives on here – we'll see what happens tomorrow.

Beshear is an incumbent, Presley is not. Beshear is way more popular than Reeves. Dems have the higher-propensity base in Kentucky while Republicans do in Mississippi. All signs show to Beshear/Reeves a way more likely outcome than Cameron/Presley.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Beshear

I'm not used to this Del Tachi, but frankly, I like it