Is Beshear or Reeves more likely to win?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I think both are favored, but who do you think has better odds of winning around 4 days before the election?

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Reeves definitely. Racial polarization makes MS lean R even in a best case scenario for the dem. I don't think Beshear is even favored in KY anymore, it's 50/50 at best. Dems always overpoll in KY early in the year before collapsing at the end.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Reeves has a 95% chance, Beshear 65%.

[Birdish]

Reeves, although Beshear is noticeably more popular. My moneys on both of them winning reelection by similar margins.

[S019]

Reeves for sure

[cg41386]

Accidentally voted Beshear. Reeves.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Obviously Reeves. Though I expect both to still win despite supposed late momentum by their opponents.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Reeves definitely. Racial polarization makes MS lean R even in a best case scenario for the dem. I don't think Beshear is even favored in KY anymore, it's 50/50 at best. Dems always overpoll in KY early in the year before collapsing at the end.

If polls are any indicator, racial polarization is declining. Not disagreeing with you that Reeves will probably win but still

[SnowLabrador]

Reeves. He's almost guaranteed to win. I'm not sure Beshear's even favored anymore.

[Tekken_Guy]

Reeves. He's almost guaranteed to win. I'm not sure Beshear's even favored anymore.

Do you think Cameron’s favored now?

[SnowLabrador]

Reeves. He's almost guaranteed to win. I'm not sure Beshear's even favored anymore.

Do you think Cameron’s favored now?

Slightly, yes.

[Tekken_Guy]

Reeves. He's almost guaranteed to win. I'm not sure Beshear's even favored anymore.

Do you think Cameron’s favored now?

Slightly, yes.

Didn’t you say this right when the poll came out?

I wonder how much of this late movement towards Cameron is actual momentum and how much of it is just partisanship kicking in. My prediction is still Beshear +2, but it's a lot more tentative than before.

[GAinDC]

Reeves. He's almost guaranteed to win. I'm not sure Beshear's even favored anymore.

What? Lol

Beshear seems fine

[It's not just that you are a crook senator]

Reeves.

My prediction:
Reeves by 8
Beshear by 3 (it was 6 before the late movements)

[Xing]

Reeves. I see him as having about an 80% chance of winning, whereas Beshear’s chances are about 60%.

[Mr. Smith]

Reeves.

[Alben Barkley]

Reeves. He's almost guaranteed to win. I'm not sure Beshear's even favored anymore.

Do you think Cameron’s favored now?

Slightly, yes.

Didn’t you say this right when the poll came out?

I wonder how much of this late movement towards Cameron is actual momentum and how much of it is just partisanship kicking in. My prediction is still Beshear +2, but it's a lot more tentative than before.

His dooming increases at an exponential rate.

Anyway, the answer is Reeves unfortunately. But not by a ton; both incumbents are still favored. Obviously I hope both Beshear and Presley win.

[Rjjr77]

I think both are favored, but who do you think has better odds of winning around 4 days before the election?

Both will probably win, but MS isnt even going to be a race. Reeves will walk it off

[Fuzzy Bear]

Reeves, although he's surprisingly unpopular with some elements of his own party.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Both are highly vulnerable and could easily lose on the same night. This shouldn’t be a hot take at all.

Is Tate Reeves really that vulnerable though? He has every so slight net positive approval ratings, but I feel like that should be more than enough in a racially polarized state like Mississipi. Yes, Brandon Presley is a good candidate but unlike Cameron the state's racial and significant polarization are headwinds for him.

[Del Tachi]

Beshear

[Tekken_Guy]

Reeves. He's almost guaranteed to win. I'm not sure Beshear's even favored anymore.

Do you think Cameron’s favored now?

Slightly, yes.

Do you still think Cameron’s favored?

[MT Treasurer]

Both are highly vulnerable and could easily lose on the same night. This shouldn’t be a hot take at all.

Is Tate Reeves really that vulnerable though? He has every so slight net positive approval ratings, but I feel like that should be more than enough in a racially polarized state like Mississipi. Yes, Brandon Presley is a good candidate but unlike Cameron the state's racial and significant polarization are headwinds for him.

I simply don’t buy the premise that MS is more "racially polarized" than it is "ideologically polarized" — it seems nonsensical to me. I feel like this lazy "inelastic Mississippi" discourse has totally warped people's brains. It’s poison.

I’m old enough to remember people (including on this forum) downplaying or outright dismissing JBE's prospects in LA in 2015 for the exact same reason.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Both are highly vulnerable and could easily lose on the same night. This shouldn’t be a hot take at all.

Is Tate Reeves really that vulnerable though? He has every so slight net positive approval ratings, but I feel like that should be more than enough in a racially polarized state like Mississipi. Yes, Brandon Presley is a good candidate but unlike Cameron the state's racial and significant polarization are headwinds for him.

I simply don’t buy the premise that MS is more "racially polarized" than it is "ideologically polarized" — it seems nonsensical to me. I feel like this lazy "inelastic Mississippi" discourse has totally warped people's brains. It’s poison.

I’m old enough to remember people (including on this forum) downplaying or outright dismissing JBE's prospects in LA in 2015 for the exact same reason.

The thing is Louisiana polarized a lot less recently. 2015 was only 7 years after they re-elected Mary Landrieu for Senate, and the LA Dems still enjoyed moderate support with white rural voters. Mississippi on the other hand has been locked out for Democrats for decades (nearly 35 years!). They lost their governorship and senate seats in the early 90's, and even Bill Clinton couldn't carry the state while he took LA. Louisiana is a lot more like Arkansas where Dems still had power outside the electoral college in the 2000's.

[MT Treasurer]

Both are highly vulnerable and could easily lose on the same night. This shouldn’t be a hot take at all.

Is Tate Reeves really that vulnerable though? He has every so slight net positive approval ratings, but I feel like that should be more than enough in a racially polarized state like Mississipi. Yes, Brandon Presley is a good candidate but unlike Cameron the state's racial and significant polarization are headwinds for him.

I simply don’t buy the premise that MS is more "racially polarized" than it is "ideologically polarized" — it seems nonsensical to me. I feel like this lazy "inelastic Mississippi" discourse has totally warped people's brains. It’s poison.

I’m old enough to remember people (including on this forum) downplaying or outright dismissing JBE's prospects in LA in 2015 for the exact same reason.

The thing is Louisiana polarized a lot less recently. 2015 was only 7 years after they re-elected Mary Landrieu for Senate, and the LA Dems still enjoyed moderate support with white rural voters. Mississippi on the other hand has been locked out for Democrats for decades (nearly 35 years!). They lost their governorship and senate seats in the early 90's, and even Bill Clinton couldn't carry the state while he took LA. Louisiana is a lot more like Arkansas where Dems still had power outside the electoral college in the 2000's.

1. The GOP's double-digit LA loss came at the height of Obama's unpopularity in the Deep South. It can't be dismissed. You also bring up Mary Landrieu, yet leave out the fact that she had lost badly the year before. Federal =/= state elections.

2. While MS Dems have been locked out of the mansion for years (but not "since the early 90s" – revisit your history), they came very close in 2019, losing mostly because Rs effectively nationalized the race in the wake of the Trump impeachment hearings. Reeves also had way higher fav ratings four years ago. He's far more vulnerable today.

I'm not convinced by the dominant KY/MS narratives on here – we'll see what happens tomorrow.