WI-SEN 2024: Will Baldwin's opponent get under 60% in Waukesha?

[SnowLabrador]

For some context: Waukesha County gave Ron Johnson 67.9% in 2016 (when he won statewide by 3.4%) and 62.6% in 2022 (when he won statewide by 1%.) It gave Leah Vukmir 61.7% as Tammy Baldwin won statewide by 10.8 percentage points.

Personally, I lean no. I think Baldwin will probably win, but not by more than 2-3 points. Under a uniform swing from 2022 (which admittedly isn't realistic, but is one way to model things), Baldwin would likely need to win by 4-5 points to get her opponent under 60 in Waukesha.

What do you all think?

[Nickelodeon PAC]

For some context: Waukesha County gave Ron Johnson 67.9% in 2016 (when he won statewide by 3.4%) and 62.6% in 2022 (when he won statewide by 1%.) It gave Leah Vukmir 61.7% as Tammy Baldwin won statewide by 10.8 percentage points.

Personally, I lean no. I think Baldwin will probably win, but not by more than 2-3 points. Under a uniform swing from 2022 (which admittedly isn't realistic, but is one way to model things), Baldwin would likely need to win by 4-5 points to get her opponent under 60 in Waukesha.

What do you all think?

I live in Waukesha county. This is the kind of place where Baldwin likely underperforms Biden.

[SnowLabrador]

For some context: Waukesha County gave Ron Johnson 67.9% in 2016 (when he won statewide by 3.4%) and 62.6% in 2022 (when he won statewide by 1%.) It gave Leah Vukmir 61.7% as Tammy Baldwin won statewide by 10.8 percentage points.

Personally, I lean no. I think Baldwin will probably win, but not by more than 2-3 points. Under a uniform swing from 2022 (which admittedly isn't realistic, but is one way to model things), Baldwin would likely need to win by 4-5 points to get her opponent under 60 in Waukesha.

What do you all think?

I live in Waukesha county. This is the kind of place where Baldwin likely underperforms Biden.

Because trends lag downballot?

[Tekken_Guy]

If it's David Clarke, yes. Otherwise, probably not.

[Nickelodeon PAC]

For some context: Waukesha County gave Ron Johnson 67.9% in 2016 (when he won statewide by 3.4%) and 62.6% in 2022 (when he won statewide by 1%.) It gave Leah Vukmir 61.7% as Tammy Baldwin won statewide by 10.8 percentage points.

Personally, I lean no. I think Baldwin will probably win, but not by more than 2-3 points. Under a uniform swing from 2022 (which admittedly isn't realistic, but is one way to model things), Baldwin would likely need to win by 4-5 points to get her opponent under 60 in Waukesha.

What do you all think?

I live in Waukesha county. This is the kind of place where Baldwin likely underperforms Biden.

Because trends lag downballot?

That’s half of it, but the other half is that a lot of people here are still Republicans but just don’t like Trump and people really attached to him specifically. Once Trump is out of the conversation completely the GOP will definitely do better here.

[SnowLabrador]

For some context: Waukesha County gave Ron Johnson 67.9% in 2016 (when he won statewide by 3.4%) and 62.6% in 2022 (when he won statewide by 1%.) It gave Leah Vukmir 61.7% as Tammy Baldwin won statewide by 10.8 percentage points.

Personally, I lean no. I think Baldwin will probably win, but not by more than 2-3 points. Under a uniform swing from 2022 (which admittedly isn't realistic, but is one way to model things), Baldwin would likely need to win by 4-5 points to get her opponent under 60 in Waukesha.

What do you all think?

I live in Waukesha county. This is the kind of place where Baldwin likely underperforms Biden.

Because trends lag downballot?

That’s half of it, but the other half is that a lot of people here are still Republicans but just don’t like Trump and people really attached to him specifically. Once Trump is out of the conversation completely the GOP will definitely do better here.

That's interesting. Out of curiosity, what's your statewide prediction for the Senate race next year?

[Nickelodeon PAC]

For some context: Waukesha County gave Ron Johnson 67.9% in 2016 (when he won statewide by 3.4%) and 62.6% in 2022 (when he won statewide by 1%.) It gave Leah Vukmir 61.7% as Tammy Baldwin won statewide by 10.8 percentage points.

Personally, I lean no. I think Baldwin will probably win, but not by more than 2-3 points. Under a uniform swing from 2022 (which admittedly isn't realistic, but is one way to model things), Baldwin would likely need to win by 4-5 points to get her opponent under 60 in Waukesha.

What do you all think?

I live in Waukesha county. This is the kind of place where Baldwin likely underperforms Biden.

Because trends lag downballot?

That’s half of it, but the other half is that a lot of people here are still Republicans but just don’t like Trump and people really attached to him specifically. Once Trump is out of the conversation completely the GOP will definitely do better here.

That's interesting. Out of curiosity, what's your statewide prediction for the Senate race next year?

It will depend on Baldwin’s opponent. If it’s a standard Republican like Eric Hovde or Stacey Klein I think Baldwin only wins by a hair and an upset is definitely possible.

But if it’s David Clarke? Then Baldwin wins by like 6%  probably.

[Tekken_Guy]

For some context: Waukesha County gave Ron Johnson 67.9% in 2016 (when he won statewide by 3.4%) and 62.6% in 2022 (when he won statewide by 1%.) It gave Leah Vukmir 61.7% as Tammy Baldwin won statewide by 10.8 percentage points.

Personally, I lean no. I think Baldwin will probably win, but not by more than 2-3 points. Under a uniform swing from 2022 (which admittedly isn't realistic, but is one way to model things), Baldwin would likely need to win by 4-5 points to get her opponent under 60 in Waukesha.

What do you all think?

I live in Waukesha county. This is the kind of place where Baldwin likely underperforms Biden.

Because trends lag downballot?

That’s half of it, but the other half is that a lot of people here are still Republicans but just don’t like Trump and people really attached to him specifically. Once Trump is out of the conversation completely the GOP will definitely do better here.

That's interesting. Out of curiosity, what's your statewide prediction for the Senate race next year?

It will depend on Baldwin’s opponent. If it’s a standard Republican like Eric Hovde or Stacey Klein I think Baldwin only wins by a hair and an upset is definitely possible.

But if it’s David Clarke? Then Baldwin wins by like 6%  probably.

Do you have Biden or Trump winning WI currently?

[Nickelodeon PAC]

For some context: Waukesha County gave Ron Johnson 67.9% in 2016 (when he won statewide by 3.4%) and 62.6% in 2022 (when he won statewide by 1%.) It gave Leah Vukmir 61.7% as Tammy Baldwin won statewide by 10.8 percentage points.

Personally, I lean no. I think Baldwin will probably win, but not by more than 2-3 points. Under a uniform swing from 2022 (which admittedly isn't realistic, but is one way to model things), Baldwin would likely need to win by 4-5 points to get her opponent under 60 in Waukesha.

What do you all think?

I live in Waukesha county. This is the kind of place where Baldwin likely underperforms Biden.

Because trends lag downballot?

That’s half of it, but the other half is that a lot of people here are still Republicans but just don’t like Trump and people really attached to him specifically. Once Trump is out of the conversation completely the GOP will definitely do better here.

That's interesting. Out of curiosity, what's your statewide prediction for the Senate race next year?

It will depend on Baldwin’s opponent. If it’s a standard Republican like Eric Hovde or Stacey Klein I think Baldwin only wins by a hair and an upset is definitely possible.

But if it’s David Clarke? Then Baldwin wins by like 6%  probably.

Do you have Biden or Trump winning WI currently?

I think it will be within 1% either way.

[Xing]

Given trends, very likely yes.

[SilverStar]

Barnes of all people got 37% in Waukesha so Bladwin's floor there is probably 38% but she will likely do better since Hovde is a clown who wants to ban alcohol selling in Wisconsin of all places.

[Schiff for Senate]

Yep, most likely.

Trump will not manage 60% in Waukesha (after failing to do so in 2020), and given that Hovde will underperform him across the state (meaning that he will at best match Trump's numbers even in places like Waukesha), I don't see him clearing the bar either.