South Carolina - CNN/SSRS - Trump +31 (Scott: 6%)

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/10/31/politics/cnn-poll-south-carolina-trump-haley/index.html

October 18-25
768 likely voters (not qualified for the debate - would have needed 800)
MoE: 4.8%

Trump 53
Haley 22
DeSantis 11
Scott 6
Christie 2
Pence 2
Ramaswamy 1
Burgum 0
Johnson 0
Someone else 0
Elder absolute 0 (no voters)
Hutchinson absolute 0
No opinion 1

Perry Johnson dropped out on day 3 of the poll, but Elder and Pence had not withdrawn by the time this finished.

[SnowLabrador]

Haleymentum? /s

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Haleymentum? /s

The polls would indicate she’s not gaining on Trump, but she is, at least, gaining here. Her team probably won’t be too upset with results like this as they hold Scott’s feet to the fire.

[2016]

37 % of Voters still might change their mind between now and the Primary and we are seeing similar things in Iowa and New Hampshire.

Nearly 40 % of Voters in the DM Register/NBC/Iowa Poll said that they might change their mind between now and the Caucuses.

By no means has Trump this locked up!

[AncestralDemocrat.]

37 % of Voters still might change their mind between now and the Primary and we are seeing similar things in Iowa and New Hampshire.

Nearly 40 % of Voters in the DM Register/NBC/Iowa Poll said that they might change their mind between now and the Caucuses.

By no means has Trump this locked up!

We're seeing Trump with 25+ point leads in every early state which his opposition have been entirely focused on.. over 50% or with a strong plurality.

The only realistic chance of challenging him is if either DeSantis, with his terminal decline in support or Haley drop out.. which evidently isn't happening.

[Vosem]

Trump at over 50% in a state which, on paper, shouldn't be that favorable for him is quite strong. Ramaswamy at only 1 is pretty funny.

72% of Trump supporters report that their mind is made up, so Trump is at 38%. (That's much stronger than what we've seen from IA or NH). For other candidates the numbers are trivial, which they were not in IA; only 3% report being mind-made-up Haley supporters and everyone else is at 1% or less. (2016 is correct that most voters do not have their minds made up, as elsewhere).

Otherwise, this poll just reiterates that the top four of these people are stunningly popular, if anything more so than the Selzer poll showed for Iowa. Apparently 80% of voters "would consider supporting" Trump (slightly different wording from Selzer, who asks if you are considering supporting), 72% each for both Haley and Scott, and 68% for DeSantis -- those are insane numbers all around! People really like their final four!

(Remaining candidates are not so popular, however. Only 37% would consider supporting Ramaswamy; only 36% would consider supporting Pence; and only 25% would consider supporting Christie. The others were not asked about.)

Anyway, they did ask for second places, so here's first place plus second place:
Trump 66
Haley 41
DeSantis 35 (very strong seconds; I would guess he's still the most common second choice for Trump supporters)
Scott 25
Pence 8 (also oddly common second choice)
Ramaswamy 6
Christie 5
Burgum/Elder/Hutchinson/Johnson 1 each (all of them have 0 first choice, 1 second)

Really bad showing for Ramaswamy. I hadn't noticed how much he'd fallen nationally, either; he peaked at rounds-to-8% from September 19-23, but now he's down to 4% and basically in free-fall. Would be funny if he doesn't end up doing any better than Yang.

[2016]

37 % of Voters still might change their mind between now and the Primary and we are seeing similar things in Iowa and New Hampshire.

Nearly 40 % of Voters in the DM Register/NBC/Iowa Poll said that they might change their mind between now and the Caucuses.

By no means has Trump this locked up!

We're seeing Trump with 25+ point leads in every early state which his opposition have been entirely focused on.. over 50% or with a strong plurality.

The only realistic chance of challenging him is if either DeSantis, with his terminal decline in support or Haley drop out.. which evidently isn't happening.

You are grasping at straws when you say DeSantis is on terminal decline. Haley has zero absolutely zero path to the Nomination. She might have consolidated the Anti-Trump Vote in much of the early Primary States. However that isn't enough for her as she would need to peel off Trump Supporters and she has made no effort over the past 7 Months since she launched her Campaign doing so.
DeSantis is better suited to peel off former Supporters of Trump who are exhausted of him.

Even Ann Seltzer, the famous IA Pollster said in her Polling Memo yesterday that Haleys 16 % of Support is very soft and stands on shaky ground.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

37 % of Voters still might change their mind between now and the Primary and we are seeing similar things in Iowa and New Hampshire.

Nearly 40 % of Voters in the DM Register/NBC/Iowa Poll said that they might change their mind between now and the Caucuses.

By no means has Trump this locked up!

We're seeing Trump with 25+ point leads in every early state which his opposition have been entirely focused on.. over 50% or with a strong plurality.

The only realistic chance of challenging him is if either DeSantis, with his terminal decline in support or Haley drop out.. which evidently isn't happening.

You are grasping at straws when you say DeSantis is on terminal decline. Haley has zero absolutely zero path to the Nomination. She might have consolidated the Anti-Trump Vote in much of the early Primary States. However that isn't enough for her as she would need to peel off Trump Supporters and she has made no effort over the past 7 Months since she launched her Campaign doing so.
DeSantis is better suited to peel off former Supporters of Trump who are exhausted of him.

Even Ann Seltzer, the famous IA Pollster said in her Polling Memo yesterday that Haleys 16 % of Support is very soft and stands on shaky ground.

How exactly I'm I grasping at straws when DeSantis is at risk of slipping to third place in Iowa.. already is in New Hampshire and South Carolina.

Terminal when you consider he was far ahead as the main opposition to Trump.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

SC is realistically the only state Haley has a shot at winning, and that only happens if Rob/Tim drop out after finishing 3rd in IA and 3rd or 4th in NH and some Trump SC voters decide to flip to their former governor who suddenly looks somewhat viable.

All of that is unlikely to happen, but that's her best shot. I plan to vote for her in our open primary.

[ElectionAtlas]

New Poll: South Carolina President by CNN/SSRS on 2023-10-25

Summary:

Trump:	53%
Haley:	22%
DeSantis:	11%
Scott:	6%
Other:	7%
Undecided:	1%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details