Georgia: Trump +2%, +9% (Zogby)
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  Georgia: Trump +2%, +9% (Zogby)
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Author Topic: Georgia: Trump +2%, +9% (Zogby)  (Read 1250 times)
Redban
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« on: October 29, 2023, 12:26:54 AM »



Link to the poll


Trump 51%
Biden 49%

Trump 45%
 Biden 36%
 RFK Jr. 15%
West 5%
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Reconstructivist
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« Reply #1 on: October 29, 2023, 01:09:58 AM »

Georgia is falling dangerously to a tossup from tilt D.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #2 on: October 29, 2023, 04:09:19 AM »

Georgia is falling dangerously to a tossup from tilt D.

Lol it 2 pts
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GAinDC
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« Reply #3 on: October 29, 2023, 07:09:01 AM »

Georgia is falling dangerously to a tossup from tilt D.

This is honestly not a bad poll for Biden. It shows GA is pretty much in line with the other key swing states (tossup within margin of error)

Trump is not gonna win over many new voters in GA based on the way the state is trending and Trumpís trial in the state. But if Dems donít turn out for Biden here, Trump could win it.

Also, no one serious ever thought GA was going to be an automatic layup for Biden after how close it was in 2020. If will be a hard fought race here.
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Shaula🏳️‍⚧️
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« Reply #4 on: October 29, 2023, 07:44:12 AM »

Georgia is falling dangerously to a tossup from tilt D.

This is honestly not a bad poll for Biden. It shows GA is pretty much in line with the other key swing states (tossup within margin of error)

Trump is not gonna win over many new voters in GA based on the way the state is trending and Trumpís trial in the state. But if Dems donít turn out for Biden here, Trump could win it.

Also, no one serious ever thought GA was going to be an automatic layup for Biden after how close it was in 2020. If will be a hard fought race here.
I still think Georgia will be likely D just because of how the state is trending and demographics. In 2022 Georgia had a Trump +7 electorate and Kemp won by the same amount.
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Redban
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« Reply #5 on: October 29, 2023, 08:08:05 AM »

ITT - people fail to see Trump +9% with all candidates
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #6 on: October 29, 2023, 08:08:24 AM »

Georgia is falling dangerously to a tossup from tilt D.

This is honestly not a bad poll for Biden. It shows GA is pretty much in line with the other key swing states (tossup within margin of error)

Trump is not gonna win over many new voters in GA based on the way the state is trending and Trumpís trial in the state. But if Dems donít turn out for Biden here, Trump could win it.

Also, no one serious ever thought GA was going to be an automatic layup for Biden after how close it was in 2020. If will be a hard fought race here.

All swing state races will be hard-fought. Again, this is why polling this early on isn't entirely worth much. Who knows how they could fluctuate when campaigning really ramps up?
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #7 on: October 29, 2023, 08:16:52 AM »
« Edited: October 29, 2023, 08:22:47 AM by Mr.Barkari Sellers »

ITT - people fail to see Trump +9% with all candidates

It's a poll as I told you repeatedly it's not vote; consequently, the polls in 22 were off they PRED a red wave but Trump has a 40 percentage pts Approval. You don't see that, that's why your 39 Gallup polls are off. If Biden is at 39 why is he polling 45 percentage pts in h2h

You believe polls too much just wait til we vote, that's why the D map doesn't go to 303 it goes to 538


Ayotte is winning in NH and Biden is winning NH 52/40 and Tester is up by 4, it's not a red wave; consequently, those 40 K tax cuts the rich got is gonna be given back in form of 30 K Reparations to blks


10 percent of whites are impoverished,  1/3rd of blks are Impoverished
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8 on: October 29, 2023, 08:39:44 AM »

Due to Metro Atlanta, the Ell-Ay of the Southeast except for lacking a saltwater beach, Georgia is drifting D. See also North Carolina, which is about the same.
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GAinDC
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« Reply #9 on: October 29, 2023, 08:52:39 AM »

Due to Metro Atlanta, the Ell-Ay of the Southeast except for lacking a saltwater beach, Georgia is drifting D. See also North Carolina, which is about the same.

Does Lake Lanier count? 😝
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riverwalk3
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« Reply #10 on: October 29, 2023, 09:05:24 AM »

Probably more like Trump +4 if third parties finish at about 6% (the poll shows Trump +9% with third parties at 20%).

In any case I expect Trump to lose nationally if he only wins Georgia by 2.
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riverwalk3
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« Reply #11 on: October 29, 2023, 09:31:52 AM »
« Edited: October 29, 2023, 09:36:55 AM by Live Free or Die! »

Georgia is falling dangerously to a tossup from tilt D.

This is honestly not a bad poll for Biden. It shows GA is pretty much in line with the other key swing states (tossup within margin of error)

Trump is not gonna win over many new voters in GA based on the way the state is trending and Trumpís trial in the state. But if Dems donít turn out for Biden here, Trump could win it.

Also, no one serious ever thought GA was going to be an automatic layup for Biden after how close it was in 2020. If will be a hard fought race here.
I still think Georgia will be likely D just because of how the state is trending and demographics. In 2022 Georgia had a Trump +7 electorate and Kemp won by the same amount.
Georgia is not Likely D in a word where Trump improves in North Carolina, lol. Also Georgia voted to the right of NC in 2022 House (despite fielding candidates like MTG).

Also exit polls are likely off on the electorate, as it showed Warnock only winning slightly more Trump voters than Walker did Biden voters. The electorate was probably Even or Trump +1 looking at the actual cross tabs.
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GAinDC
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« Reply #12 on: October 29, 2023, 09:54:30 AM »

Georgia is falling dangerously to a tossup from tilt D.

This is honestly not a bad poll for Biden. It shows GA is pretty much in line with the other key swing states (tossup within margin of error)

Trump is not gonna win over many new voters in GA based on the way the state is trending and Trumpís trial in the state. But if Dems donít turn out for Biden here, Trump could win it.

Also, no one serious ever thought GA was going to be an automatic layup for Biden after how close it was in 2020. If will be a hard fought race here.
I still think Georgia will be likely D just because of how the state is trending and demographics. In 2022 Georgia had a Trump +7 electorate and Kemp won by the same amount.

I thought the electorate was Trump+5

Do you know of a good exit poll from 2022?
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Devils30
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« Reply #13 on: October 29, 2023, 10:16:28 AM »

I would comment on third parties effect but any Zogby poll belongs in the trash.
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riverwalk3
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« Reply #14 on: October 29, 2023, 10:27:28 AM »

I would comment on third parties effect but any Zogby poll belongs in the trash.
The other polls Trump up by more here. Morning Consult has Trump up by 5 here (while showing more favorable Biden numbers nationally than other polls) while Redfield has Trump up by 3 here.
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Senator Incitatus
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« Reply #15 on: October 29, 2023, 12:29:20 PM »

About what I would expect.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #16 on: October 29, 2023, 03:35:39 PM »

Due to Metro Atlanta, the Ell-Ay of the Southeast except for lacking a saltwater beach, Georgia is drifting D. See also North Carolina, which is about the same.

Does Lake Lanier count? 😝

I live in Michigan, and I know nothing about Atlanta except what I read. I've seen Lake Lanier on a map, and it looks like a good recreational site.

Now here's a surprise: Dallas and Fort Worth are close to a salty beach: Lake Texoma is actually a salt lake due to the nearby salt deposits and a climate brutally hot (about like Phoenix) six months out of the year.

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GAinDC
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« Reply #17 on: October 29, 2023, 05:59:29 PM »

Due to Metro Atlanta, the Ell-Ay of the Southeast except for lacking a saltwater beach, Georgia is drifting D. See also North Carolina, which is about the same.

Does Lake Lanier count? 😝

I live in Michigan, and I know nothing about Atlanta except what I read. I've seen Lake Lanier on a map, and it looks like a good recreational site.

Now here's a surprise: Dallas and Fort Worth are close to a salty beach: Lake Texoma is actually a salt lake due to the nearby salt deposits and a climate brutally hot (about like Phoenix) six months out of the year.



Wow! I didnít know that. Very interesting oddity of geography

Lake Lanier is a fun local getaway but the legend goes that itís cursed..
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« Reply #18 on: October 29, 2023, 06:01:30 PM »

3rd party vote will be higher than 2020 sure, but this much higher? I don't buy it. Between this and that absolutely trash Harvard/Harris poll showing 18-29 year olds being simultaneously pro-hamas but also pro-firing people who support hamas, not to mention the massive polling misses in 3 of the last 4 national elections, I'm starting to just think that the polling industry in this country isn't worth listening to at all in its current form and needs to be scrapped.
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Fmr. Gov. NickG
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« Reply #19 on: October 29, 2023, 07:29:07 PM »

ITT - people fail to see Trump +9% with all candidates

Cornel West is not going to get anywhere close to 5% of the vote. In the end, heís not even going to try to be a serious candidate.
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #20 on: October 29, 2023, 07:36:20 PM »

ITT - people fail to see Trump +9% with all candidates

I saw it, I'm just not dumb enough to believe it.
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riverwalk3
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« Reply #21 on: October 29, 2023, 07:43:56 PM »
« Edited: October 29, 2023, 07:49:04 PM by Live Free or Die! »

ITT - people fail to see Trump +9% with all candidates

I saw it, I'm just not dumb enough to believe it.
It feels weird how you are fine believing Biden +2 in Pennsylvania with a Biden +7 electorate but dismiss any poll that shows Trump favored (while the result could be too optimistic for Trump, polls have margins of error and averaging polls reduces the overall margin of error).

It isnít a matter of being smart or dumb; itís simply wishful thinking or your part. The poor economy and conflicts breaking out all over the world clearly matter to voters, and Biden has no margin for error compared to last election. At some point you just need to accept that your priors are off.
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2016
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« Reply #22 on: October 29, 2023, 07:47:08 PM »

It's Zogby so put it in the Trash Can.
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riverwalk3
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« Reply #23 on: October 29, 2023, 07:48:28 PM »

It's Zogby so put it in the Trash Can.
Yes Morning Consult at Trump +5, Redfield at Trump +3, and Rasmussen at Trump +9 are even better for Trump.
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #24 on: October 29, 2023, 08:04:45 PM »

ITT - people fail to see Trump +9% with all candidates

I saw it, I'm just not dumb enough to believe it.
It feels weird how you are fine believing Biden +2 in Pennsylvania with a Biden +7 electorate but dismiss any poll that shows Trump favored (while the result could be too optimistic for Trump, polls have margins of error and averaging polls reduces the overall margin of error).

It isnít a matter of being smart or dumb; itís simply wishful thinking or your part. The poor economy and conflicts breaking out all over the world clearly matter to voters, and Biden has no margin for error compared to last election. At some point you just need to accept that your priors are off.

If you believe Biden is losing Georgia to Trump by 9% with or without third parties then you're dumb.
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