Predict MS-GOV

[Roll Roons]

I haven’t been really following this race or Reeves’ time in office, but why is this race even remotely competitive?

Reeves doesn’t seem to be terribly controversial and I’d assume he’d be cruising to reelection as a Republican incumbent in Mississippi. I know R’s have a pretty hard ceiling here but shouldn’t he be hitting it?

The independent polls (ie Siena, Mason-Dixon)  are showing R +10 and post-Dobbs they seem to be underestimating Rs in the Deep South.

The last independent poll of this race was from nearly a month ago and things do seem to have shifted in Presley's direction since then. I really hope Mason-Dixon polls both here and KY sometime this week.

[Del Tachi]

Reeves 51.3%
Presley 48.2%
Gray 0.5%

I'm really hoping we get some more polls this week, and I may update my prediction based on those.

[GAinDC]

I haven’t been really following this race or Reeves’ time in office, but why is this race even remotely competitive?

Reeves doesn’t seem to be terribly controversial and I’d assume he’d be cruising to reelection as a Republican incumbent in Mississippi. I know R’s have a pretty hard ceiling here but shouldn’t he be hitting it?

The independent polls (ie Siena, Mason-Dixon)  are showing R +10 and post-Dobbs they seem to be underestimating Rs in the Deep South.

The last independent poll of this race was from nearly a month ago and things do seem to have shifted in Presley's direction since then. I really hope Mason-Dixon polls both here and KY sometime this week.

Wow! What has Reeves done in office that might be a sticking point for conservative voters and drive down turnout? Is it COVID stuff? I recall he was more cautious than other Republican governors.

[wbrocks67]

I haven’t been really following this race or Reeves’ time in office, but why is this race even remotely competitive?

Reeves doesn’t seem to be terribly controversial and I’d assume he’d be cruising to reelection as a Republican incumbent in Mississippi. I know R’s have a pretty hard ceiling here but shouldn’t he be hitting it?

The independent polls (ie Siena, Mason-Dixon)  are showing R +10 and post-Dobbs they seem to be underestimating Rs in the Deep South.

The last independent poll of this race was from nearly a month ago and things do seem to have shifted in Presley's direction since then. I really hope Mason-Dixon polls both here and KY sometime this week.

Wow! What has Reeves done in office that might be a sticking point for conservative voters and drive down turnout? Is it COVID stuff? I recall he was more cautious than other Republican governors.

This is a good article on that: https://mississippitoday.org/2023/10/30/tate-reeves-conservative-voter-struggles/

[7,052,770]

I haven’t been really following this race or Reeves’ time in office, but why is this race even remotely competitive?

Reeves doesn’t seem to be terribly controversial and I’d assume he’d be cruising to reelection as a Republican incumbent in Mississippi. I know R’s have a pretty hard ceiling here but shouldn’t he be hitting it?

The independent polls (ie Siena, Mason-Dixon)  are showing R +10 and post-Dobbs they seem to be underestimating Rs in the Deep South.

The last independent poll of this race was from nearly a month ago and things do seem to have shifted in Presley's direction since then. I really hope Mason-Dixon polls both here and KY sometime this week.

Wow! What has Reeves done in office that might be a sticking point for conservative voters and drive down turnout? Is it COVID stuff? I recall he was more cautious than other Republican governors.

(Note: I'm like 90% sure this is cope. Like 95%.)

[GAinDC]

I haven’t been really following this race or Reeves’ time in office, but why is this race even remotely competitive?

Reeves doesn’t seem to be terribly controversial and I’d assume he’d be cruising to reelection as a Republican incumbent in Mississippi. I know R’s have a pretty hard ceiling here but shouldn’t he be hitting it?

The independent polls (ie Siena, Mason-Dixon)  are showing R +10 and post-Dobbs they seem to be underestimating Rs in the Deep South.

The last independent poll of this race was from nearly a month ago and things do seem to have shifted in Presley's direction since then. I really hope Mason-Dixon polls both here and KY sometime this week.

Wow! What has Reeves done in office that might be a sticking point for conservative voters and drive down turnout? Is it COVID stuff? I recall he was more cautious than other Republican governors.

This is a good article on that: https://mississippitoday.org/2023/10/30/tate-reeves-conservative-voter-struggles/

Thanks!

[GAinDC]

I haven’t been really following this race or Reeves’ time in office, but why is this race even remotely competitive?

Reeves doesn’t seem to be terribly controversial and I’d assume he’d be cruising to reelection as a Republican incumbent in Mississippi. I know R’s have a pretty hard ceiling here but shouldn’t he be hitting it?

The independent polls (ie Siena, Mason-Dixon)  are showing R +10 and post-Dobbs they seem to be underestimating Rs in the Deep South.

The last independent poll of this race was from nearly a month ago and things do seem to have shifted in Presley's direction since then. I really hope Mason-Dixon polls both here and KY sometime this week.

Wow! What has Reeves done in office that might be a sticking point for conservative voters and drive down turnout? Is it COVID stuff? I recall he was more cautious than other Republican governors.

(Note: I'm like 90% sure this is cope. Like 95%.)

Ugh, people are upset over flags? You lost the civil war, get over it

[I’m not Stu]

Reeves by 11.

[smoltchanov]

Change my early prediction - still Reeves, but by less: about 5-7. So, in fact - a repeat of Reeves - Hood race of 2019.... (the intransigence of voting habits in Mississippi be damned, as i greatly prefer Presley, but don't think enough voters will be clever enough...)

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

52-48 Reeves-Pressley

[windjammer]

Reeves by 5

[Mr. Smith]

But will the EV-aspect go to Reeves? And by how much? Or did Mississippi finally ditch that aspect?

EDIT: Nvm, it's all PV now.

[Splash]

Reeves +5