Predict MS-GOV
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Poll
Question: -skip-
#1
Pressley by more than 10		  
#2
Pressley by 7-10		  
#3
Pressley by 5-7		  
#4
Pressley by 3-5		  
#5
Pressley by 1-3		  
#6
Pressley by less than 1		  
#7
Reeves by less than 1		  
#8
Reeves by 1-3		  
#9
Reeves by 3-5		  
#10
Reeves by 5-7		  
#11
Reeves by 7-10		  
#12
Reeves by more than 10		  
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results
Total Voters: 64

Author Topic: Predict MS-GOV  (Read 1294 times)
Xing
xingkerui
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« on: October 28, 2023, 08:20:00 PM »
Since some were putting their predictions in the KY thread, I thought this deserved its own thread.

I’m less confident about this one than I was before, but I’ll guess Reeves wins 52-47 or so.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #1 on: October 28, 2023, 08:42:06 PM »
Reeves by 3-5 seems about right.
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Computer89
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« Reply #2 on: October 28, 2023, 08:49:21 PM »
Reeves by 6.5
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #3 on: October 28, 2023, 08:53:38 PM »
Reeves by 9-11 methinks, a bit like CHS.

I mean, Hood couldn't even keep it under 5 in a far better year, what hope does Presley have?
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #4 on: October 28, 2023, 09:30:15 PM »
Reeves by 7.
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BigZuck08
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« Reply #5 on: October 28, 2023, 09:36:01 PM »
Reeves by 5-7.

I used to predict a much lower margin for Reeves until I saw the outcome of the election in neighboring Louisiana.
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riverwalk3
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« Reply #6 on: October 28, 2023, 09:36:35 PM »
Reeves by about Trump’s 2020 margin.
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« Reply #7 on: October 28, 2023, 11:07:34 PM »
Reeves 5-7. Sucks for MS.
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🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱
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« Reply #8 on: October 28, 2023, 11:45:14 PM »
Can't say that yet.

I'm waiting for the final polls.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #9 on: October 29, 2023, 06:16:08 PM »
I've settled on Reeves+5.

Presley is putting in a good effort, and there is reason to believe Governor Peter Griffin might have some unpopular perceptions that water down his incumbency, but I just can't see a Democrat in Mississippi getting more than 47% of the vote in an off-year election.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #10 on: October 29, 2023, 06:24:16 PM »
Reeves +8.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #11 on: October 29, 2023, 06:31:23 PM »
Presley: 50.3%
Reeves: 49.2%
Gray (withdrawn): 0.5%
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #12 on: October 29, 2023, 08:31:05 PM »
If I can dream, it will be Presley.

Realistically, it will be Reeves.
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WalterWhite
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« Reply #13 on: October 29, 2023, 09:23:12 PM »
Reeves will win this election because Democrats are, in this day and age, unelectable in Mississippi.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #14 on: October 29, 2023, 09:52:12 PM »
« Edited: October 29, 2023, 09:59:40 PM by Mr.Barkari Sellers »
Presley wins 51/49 Reeves is overrated just like Camero, Rs won LA they were very lucky to avoid a Runoff
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Duke of York
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« Reply #15 on: October 29, 2023, 09:54:34 PM »
Quote from: Mr.Barkari Sellers on October 29, 2023, 09:52:12 PM
Presley wins 51/49 Reeves is overrated just like Cameron won, Rs won LA they were very lucky to avoid a Runoff

I very much hope your right.
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Miked0920
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« Reply #16 on: October 29, 2023, 10:25:19 PM »
Id say Reeves from 9-13% margin of victory. Pressly is a long shot its Mississippi after all.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #17 on: October 30, 2023, 06:48:14 AM »
Reeves 51-49. Presley comes close, but can't quite get make up the map.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #18 on: October 30, 2023, 09:16:04 AM »
Reeves 55-45.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #19 on: October 30, 2023, 09:18:18 AM »
Reeves wins by 3.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #20 on: October 30, 2023, 09:19:05 AM »
"Inelasticity" is a myth/scam and a term people use to sound smart and/or to portray the other side as tribalistic. Hood and even Espy (!) came far closer than they *should* have in such an "inelastic" state, and Pressley is perceived as far more conservative/non-political than Hood. Reeves' favorables are also far worse than in 2019, and the race hasn’t been nationalized to the same extent as back then.

Toss-up, with a slight advantage to Pressley (but I wouldn’t be shocked by a Reeves win, obviously).

The fact that IA and NH are considered "elastic" states tells you all you need to know about how "useful" this concept is.
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GAinDC
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« Reply #21 on: October 30, 2023, 09:30:06 AM »
I haven’t been really following this race or Reeves’ time in office, but why is this race even remotely competitive?

Reeves doesn’t seem to be terribly controversial and I’d assume he’d be cruising to reelection as a Republican incumbent in Mississippi. I know R’s have a pretty hard ceiling here but shouldn’t he be hitting it?
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #22 on: October 30, 2023, 09:30:33 AM »
Honestly I don't think Presley winning is out of the realm of possibility, but I feel like Reeves +3 or something seems more realistic. Would love to be wrong though.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #23 on: October 30, 2023, 09:31:12 AM »
Quote from: GAinDC on October 30, 2023, 09:30:06 AM
I haven’t been really following this race or Reeves’ time in office, but why is this race even remotely competitive?

Reeves doesn’t seem to be terribly controversial and I’d assume he’d be cruising to reelection as a Republican incumbent in Mississippi. I know R’s have a pretty hard ceiling here but shouldn’t he be hitting it?

Reeves isn't controversial per se, but he's just well-liked and has had numerous scandals while in office. He wasn't really popular in 2019 either, and it seems it's only gotten worse for him.
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riverwalk3
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« Reply #24 on: October 30, 2023, 09:38:32 AM »
Quote from: GAinDC on October 30, 2023, 09:30:06 AM
I haven’t been really following this race or Reeves’ time in office, but why is this race even remotely competitive?

Reeves doesn’t seem to be terribly controversial and I’d assume he’d be cruising to reelection as a Republican incumbent in Mississippi. I know R’s have a pretty hard ceiling here but shouldn’t he be hitting it?
The independent polls (ie Siena, Mason-Dixon)  are showing R +10 and post-Dobbs they seem to be underestimating Rs in the Deep South.
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