2023 elections predictions thread

[Tekken_Guy]

It will be a relatively good night tomorrow for Democrats and Liberals.

Some signals in early vote that show weakness for them in states like VA and KY lmao

No they don’t.

[EastwoodS]

It will be a relatively good night tomorrow for Democrats and Liberals.

Some signals in early vote that show weakness for them in states like VA and KY lmao

No they don’t.

What do you know about KY? Absolutely nothing.

[Tekken_Guy]

It will be a relatively good night tomorrow for Democrats and Liberals.

Some signals in early vote that show weakness for them in states like VA and KY lmao

No they don’t.

What do you know about KY? Absolutely nothing.

We can’t really compare early vote numbers to 2019 because partisan registration has trended Republican since then, and that was a Pre-COVID election. The early vote may be more pro-Beshear than the 2019 one.

[wbrocks67]

It will be a relatively good night tomorrow for Democrats and Liberals.

Some signals in early vote that show weakness for them in states like VA and KY lmao

No they don’t.

What do you know about KY? Absolutely nothing.

I mean, no disrespect because I know you're from KY, but the KY numbers clearly don't really tell us anything to be honest.

And for VA, it's also a question because Dems still lead, but less, but also that could easily be a microcosm of the push from VA GOP to early vote this year more than in the past.

[EastwoodS]

It will be a relatively good night tomorrow for Democrats and Liberals.

Some signals in early vote that show weakness for them in states like VA and KY lmao

No they don’t.

What do you know about KY? Absolutely nothing.

I mean, no disrespect because I know you're from KY, but the KY numbers clearly don't really tell us anything to be honest.

And for VA, it's also a question because Dems still lead, but less, but also that could easily be a microcosm of the push from VA GOP to early vote this year more than in the past.

This is fair, I’ll give it to y’all

[2016]

CNN says in a Press Release today that they will have Exit Polling for various Races tomorrow
https://cnnpressroom.blogs.cnn.com/2023/11/06/cnn-to-broadcast-americas-choice-2023-election-night-special-coverage/

Thank God because that means we're not operating entirely blind.

[wbrocks67]

CNN says in a Press Release today that they will have Exit Polling for various Races tomorrow
https://cnnpressroom.blogs.cnn.com/2023/11/06/cnn-to-broadcast-americas-choice-2023-election-night-special-coverage/

Thank God because that means we're not operating entirely blind.

That's exciting to hear - I wonder which races they'll be doing. KY and MS seem like the obvious, with OH, VA also possible? What I wouldn't give for a PA exit poll on this race lmao

[Del Tachi]

I'm sensing a Beshear overperformance...something that will completely embarass the doomers.  I'll guess he finishes somewhere between D+6 and D+9

As much as I want a Presley upset, I'm setting my expectations low.  The most heartbreaking outcome would be Reeves winning a bare majority and narrowly escaping a runoff, so that's what I'll predict for now:

--Reeves 50.3%
--Presley 49.2%
--Gray 0.5%

[MT Treasurer]

My final calls:

KY: Pure Toss-up, Cameron (R) by ~2
MS: Pure Toss-up, Pressley (D) by ~3
PA-SC: Lean D, McCaffery (D)
OH-Ref: Likely Pass, pro-choice side wins

Did not follow the VA races closely enough.

[Xing]

Kentucky: Beshear +3
Mississippi: Reeves +5
PA Supreme Court: McCaffery by low-mid single digits

Abortion and marijuana both pass in Ohio

Democrats win both chambers in NJ and VA, but only barely win the VA House.

Pretty much standing by this, adjusting the KY margin to Beshear +2.

[Utah Neolib]

KY: Beshear +2
MS: Reeves +4
PA: Lean D
VA: 52-48D House, 22D-18R Senate

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'm sensing a Beshear overperformance...something that will completely embarass the doomers.  I'll guess he finishes somewhere between D+6 and D+9

Not predicting that much...but it is worth nothing that Beshear completely and utterly f[inks]ing humiliated Atlas last time.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

KY-GOV: Beshar (D)+4
MS-GOV: Reeves (R)+7
PA Supreme Court: McCaffrey (D)+6
Ohio abortion: Yes+10
Ohio marijuana: Yes+15
Virginia House: 52 D / 48 R (net D+4)
Virginia Senate: 23 D / 17 R (net D+1)
New Jersey Assembly: 48 D / 32 R (net D+2)
New Jersey Senate: 24 D / 16 R (R+1/no change from last election)

[Roll Roons]

KY-GOV: Beshar (D)+4
MS-GOV: Reeves (R)+7
PA Supreme Court: McCaffrey (D)+6
Ohio abortion: Yes+10
Ohio marijuana: Yes+15
Virginia House: 52 D / 48 R (net D+4)
Virginia Senate: 23 D / 17 R (net D+1)
New Jersey Assembly: 48 D / 32 R (net D+2)
New Jersey Senate: 25 D / 15 R (no change)

Your NJ Senate prediction should probably say 24 Ds and 16 Rs. LD-12 is a Safe R seat held by the old guy who switched parties earlier this year but is retiring anyway.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

KY-GOV: Beshar (D)+4
MS-GOV: Reeves (R)+7
PA Supreme Court: McCaffrey (D)+6
Ohio abortion: Yes+10
Ohio marijuana: Yes+15
Virginia House: 52 D / 48 R (net D+4)
Virginia Senate: 23 D / 17 R (net D+1)
New Jersey Assembly: 48 D / 32 R (net D+2)
New Jersey Senate: 25 D / 15 R (no change)

Your NJ Senate prediction should probably say 24 Ds and 16 Rs. LD-12 is a Safe R seat held by the old guy who switched parties earlier this year but is retiring anyway.

Oh yeah I forgot about that guy.

[Roll Roons]

KY: Beshear +3
MS: Reeves +4
VA Senate: 21 D, 19 R
VA House: 50-50
NJ Senate: 23 D, 17 R. LDs 4 and 12 flip from D to R.
NJ House: 42 D, 38 R. Republicans hold everything, flip both LD-4 seats and score upsets by winning one seat each in LDs 16 and 38.
OH Abortion: Yes by 12.
PA Supreme Court: D+2

Maybe I'm being bold on NJ and I could very well be wrong, but this is what I think.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

My final calls:

KY: Pure Toss-up, Cameron (R) by ~2
MS: Pure Toss-up, Pressley (D) by ~3
PA-SC: Lean D, McCaffery (D)
OH-Ref: Likely Pass, pro-choice side wins

Did not follow the VA races closely enough.

Wow, you think Presley wins?

[oldkyhome]

KY: Beshear +5
MS: Reeves +4

[Alben Barkley]

KY: Beshear by less than a point

MS: Reeves +6

PA: McCaffrey +4

OH: Pro-Choice +10

[Alben Barkley]

My final calls:

KY: Pure Toss-up, Cameron (R) by ~2
MS: Pure Toss-up, Pressley (D) by ~3
PA-SC: Lean D, McCaffery (D)
OH-Ref: Likely Pass, pro-choice side wins

Did not follow the VA races closely enough.

Wow, you think Presley wins?

His predictions give me comfort, because he's almost always wrong. And I selfishly would much rather Beshear win than Presley, and I think he's almost definitely wildly off on the latter race. As cool as it would be for Elvis's Democratic cousin to be a governor.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

KY: Beshear +3
MS: Reeves +4
VA Senate: 21 D, 19 R
VA House: 50-50
NJ Senate: 23 D, 17 R. LDs 4 and 12 flip from D to R.
NJ House: 42 D, 38 R. Republicans hold everything, flip both LD-4 seats and score upsets by winning one seat each in LDs 16 and 38.
OH Abortion: Yes by 12.
PA Supreme Court: D+2

Maybe I'm being bold on NJ and I could very well be wrong, but this is what I think.

My predictions are mostly similar except for MS.

[MT Treasurer]

My final calls:

KY: Pure Toss-up, Cameron (R) by ~2
MS: Pure Toss-up, Pressley (D) by ~3
PA-SC: Lean D, McCaffery (D)
OH-Ref: Likely Pass, pro-choice side wins

Did not follow the VA races closely enough.

Wow, you think Presley wins?

I think people are focusing a little too much on the winner than the actual rating (Toss-up in both races). I’m more "confident" that Reeves and Beshear are both in serious danger of losing than that they will actually lose, but yes, I’ve long believed that Pressley has a clear path to victory and I still stand by that.

I think both Cameron and Pressley have turned their respective races around in a way that has not been reflected by the polls for the simple reason that there haven’t been any (non-internal/high-quality) polls released in the final weeks of the campaign (or really no polls in the case of MS). Can I "prove" that there has been a big shift in both races? No. Can I make an educated guess based off state/local dynamics and candidate profiles? Yes.

Note that "turned their races around" doesn’t guarantee that they will win. Very possible that Beshear and Reeves both win, that Beshear and Pressley both do or that Cameron and Reeves both do. No one knows, and I’m not making a confident prediction by any means.

If Beshear wins by a point and Reeves by 2, my prediction will have been wrong but still closer to the truth than Beshear +6 and Reeves +9, let alone "Reeves +15-20." So if you mock it after the election, at least do the math before.

[politicallefty]

I probably shouldn't put myself on the line like this (my confidence level on most of these being quite low), but so be it:

KY-Gov: Beshear (D)+4
MS-Gov: Reeves (R)+3
PA-SCt: McCaffery (D)+6
OH-Abortion: Yes+16
OH-Marijuana: Yes+20
VA-Senate: 23D-17R
VA-House: 52D-48R

[Sestak]

Democrats win everything.

[7,052,770]

My final prediction is Reeves winning by 6, a good performance from Presley but not enough.

Don't really know enough to predict the other races, other than Beshear squeaking one out by a much closer margin and Democrats having a pretty good night overall.