2024 North Carolina Attorney General Election Thread

[Real Texan Politics]

As some of you may have heard by now, Democrat Jeff Jackson of North Carolina's 14th Congressional District decided to drop out after North Carolina's redistricting, and decided to run for Attorney General of the state, where he will almost certainly be the Democrat nominee.

On the other hand, Republicans look to be nominating Dan Bishop of North Carolina's 8th Congressional District for the Attorney General race. Although he could face a slightly more competitive primary if Tim Moore, the Speaker of the North Carolina House decides to run.

Like just about every major statewide race in North Carolina, including the presidential election, this will absolutely be a competitive race. While North Carolina seems to be the most Republican-friendly swing state, Republicans have not won an AG race in the state since 1896 (there have been two Republican AGs since then, but both were appointed rather than elected). Along with that, Jeff Jackson has a large following on TikTok and Instagram, which will very likely give him a big boost with young voters (similarly to Beto O'Rourke in Texas), which could be enough to swing the election in Jackson's favor, especially in a high turnout presidential year.

Will Jeff Jackson's youth grassroots appeal give him the edge in the race, or will increased polarization cause Republicans to have an upset 128 years in the making?

My current rating: Tossup/Tilt R (Bishop)

[BigZuck08]

Lean D for now, Jackson is a pretty good candidate and Bishop is in the Freedom Caucus.

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

This will be the one race I hinge my entire sanity on, won't it?

[Progressive Pessimist]

Tossup.

[Tekken_Guy]

Toss-up for now. I expect Bishop to run behind Trump but ahead of Robinson.

[Spectator]

Toss-up for now. I expect Bishop to run behind Trump but ahead of Robinson.

Pretty much this. I’ll say Tilt D. I don’t expect the gubernatorial race to end up being very close when all is said and done. Bishop’s biggest weakness isn’t the election denialism (that is a problem too). It’s the fact that it seems from my read of his wiki and website that he was never an actual prosecutor and has mostly just been a politician for his adult life. That’s an easy line of attack. Contrast that to Jackson who is both a veteran and a prosecutor.

I think Jim O’Neill would probably be favored if he won the Republican nomination. Especially after he won a difficult re-election race last year in a solidly blue county.

[Ferguson97]

Likely D, bordering on Safe D.

Democrats have not lost a race for North Carolina Attorney General since 1895.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Likely D, bordering on Safe D.

Democrats have not lost a race for North Carolina Attorney General since 1895.

Interesting little factoid right there.

[Sol]

Tim Moore isn’t running, he’s going to Congress.

[Real Texan Politics]

Should note that Bishop is unopposed in the GOP primary as of a while ago

[Fancyarcher]

Likely D, bordering on Safe D.

Democrats have not lost a race for North Carolina Attorney General since 1895.

And that was true in Kentucky until recently, Mississippi as well.

While I think Democrats obviously have some advantage in this race. If Trump wins North Carolina by 3 or more points, good chance it probably flips.

[Vern]

Jeff Jackson wins this race easy.

[Spectator]

Jeff Jackson wins this race easy.

You don’t think there’s an upper limit to how many Trump voters Jackson can get to cross over?

[Vern]

Jeff Jackson wins this race easy.

You don’t think there’s an upper limit to how many Trump voters Jackson can get to cross over?

Normally yes, but Jeff Jackson is very good at connecting with people and will have a lot of cross over votes.

[Sol]

Jeff Jackson wins this race easy.

You don’t think there’s an upper limit to how many Trump voters Jackson can get to cross over?

Normally yes, but Jeff Jackson is very good at connecting with people and will have a lot of cross over votes.

FWIW, Jackson has the most online buzz I've seen of any NC Democratic politician. He's spent the better part of the last decade cultivating a pretty large audience on social media, and is honestly extremely good at that sort of thing.

For example, he's been posting on local subreddits for years -- since at least 2019, if not earlier -- and has built up a strong name recognition in a lot of the state. This is why he would have been a better pick than Cunningham!

[Sol]

Jackson won the primary, but lost a bunch of counties in Eastern NC to Deberry; it looks a lot like the Erica Smith vs. Cal Cunningham map in 2020. Makes me feel a bit worse about Jackson.

[Roll Roons]

Jackson won the primary, but lost a bunch of counties in Eastern NC to Deberry; it looks a lot like the Erica Smith vs. Cal Cunningham map in 2020. Makes me feel a bit worse about Jackson.

I don't think you need to be too worried. Cunningham likely would have won if not for his scandal.

[Sol]

Jackson won the primary, but lost a bunch of counties in Eastern NC to Deberry; it looks a lot like the Erica Smith vs. Cal Cunningham map in 2020. Makes me feel a bit worse about Jackson.

I don't think you need to be too worried. Cunningham likely would have won if not for his scandal.

It's moreso that he didn't totally sweep like Stein did, when he had a lot of online engagement and is fairly high-profile. Granted, Deberry is probably more appealing to progressive voters (including myself) than Morgan, but still!

[Spectator]

Jackson won the primary, but lost a bunch of counties in Eastern NC to Deberry; it looks a lot like the Erica Smith vs. Cal Cunningham map in 2020. Makes me feel a bit worse about Jackson.

Probably a case of black Democrats preferring one of their own against a white candidate they don’t really know. Josh Stein won that area easily in northeastern NC, but Rachel Hunt and Jeff Jackson struggled.

The more notable area of the state was the Sandhills region where Democrats’ favored candidates did poorly across the board, including Stein and Biden. I imagine a lot of it was registered DINOs protesting.